1. 08-23-15 07:09 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Sunday, 8/23/15

    4 MLB Plays Sunday

    Diamondbacks +120 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Reds UNDER 8 +100 (5 Dimes)
    Blue Jays / Angels UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Giants / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 446-409-21, +74.89
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  2. 08-23-15 08:37 AM #2
    Vinnie Paz
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    Any 100%ers ?
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  3. 08-23-15 08:38 AM #3
    Brooklyn Dick
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    Anything for the 60 Percenter's today LT? Thanks.
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  4. 08-23-15 08:39 AM #4
    jjgold
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    Zona been fukkin killing me

    Very hot team

    Unders risky with heat now and tired arms
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  5. 08-23-15 09:03 AM #5
    BeanTownClown88
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    LT are you not a big believer in the sweep theory? ...I want to take AZ but reds have decent home pitcher going and lost the first 3 games and are at home
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  6. 08-23-15 09:09 AM #6
    Vinnie Paz
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    Yeah I kinda like refs too FF. Chase is fuckin garbage.
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  7. 08-23-15 09:54 AM #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyn Dick View Post
    Anything for the 60 Percenter's today LT? Thanks.
    Sorry I forgot. Here we go:

    Yankees 62% (-163)
    Baltimore 65% (-186)
    Dodgers 65% (-186)
    Cubs 65% (-186)
    Pittsburgh 62% (-163)
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  8. 08-23-15 09:55 AM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanTownClown88 View Post
    LT are you not a big believer in the sweep theory? ...I want to take AZ but reds have decent home pitcher going and lost the first 3 games and are at home
    No I couldn't care less, look at each game on its own merit.
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  9. 08-23-15 09:55 AM #9
    TheChamp1
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Sorry I forgot. Here we go:

    Yankees 62% (-163)
    Baltimore 65% (-186)
    Dodgers 65% (-186)
    Cubs 65% (-186)
    Pittsburgh 62% (-163)
    It's hard to bet the Dodgers right now even if their % was 99
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  10. 08-23-15 10:00 AM #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheChamp1 View Post
    It's hard to bet the Dodgers right now even if their % was 99
    65% is typically LOW for a Kershaw start, so offensive struggles are built in. -170 is actually pretty decent on real line if you don't mind betting big favorites (something that I don't do).
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  11. 08-23-15 10:10 AM #11
    TheChamp1
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    65% is typically LOW for a Kershaw start, so offensive struggles are built in. -170 is actually pretty decent on real line if you don't mind betting big favorites (something that I don't do).
    I've got a Yankees/Cubs parlay. Whatcha think?
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  12. 08-23-15 10:20 AM #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheChamp1 View Post
    I've got a Yankees/Cubs parlay. Whatcha think?
    Yankees look fine but not Cubs since they are higher than -186. And I would never recommend parlays.
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  13. 08-23-15 10:24 AM #13
    Vinnie Paz
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    Why dbacks though? I wanna lock in cincy ff but now you got me shook lol
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  14. 08-23-15 10:34 AM #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    4 MLB Plays Sunday

    YTD: 446-409-21, +74.89
    This is my ACTUAL record, note my post in yesterday's thread (Saturday) where I mistakenly typed "OVER" when I had an "UNDER" and stated that simple search of Line History worry would confirm that my odds on the play were on the Under. I will leave my record as is (Actual based on my bets) unless there is enough objection that I should change Win to a Loss on SBR record?
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  15. 08-23-15 10:37 AM #15
    thebettingman15
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    what are your thoughts on Minnesota at +150? I think Pelfrey is the better pitcher in this matchup
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  16. 08-23-15 10:43 AM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    Why dbacks though? I wanna lock in cincy ff but now you got me shook lol
    I only get Reds 52% (-108). Not much difference in the pitchers and YTD offense, Arizona grades out better in recent offense vs. rightes. Feels to me like +120 (at the time) on close to a toss-up.
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  17. 08-23-15 10:45 AM #17
    thesalesman15
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    %'s on rangers and tampa bay?
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  18. 08-23-15 10:45 AM #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebettingman15 View Post
    what are your thoughts on Minnesota at +150? I think Pelfrey is the better pitcher in this matchup
    See Post #7, Baltimore 65% (-186)

    Gausman as been much better at home his entire brief career.
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  19. 08-23-15 10:46 AM #19
    thebettingman15
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    so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?
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  20. 08-23-15 10:46 AM #20
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Curious what's your #'s on Tex/Detroit Lt? Thanks bol
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  21. 08-23-15 10:49 AM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesalesman15 View Post
    %'s on rangers and tampa bay?
    Texas just 54% (-117) (but I am still having trouble pulling trigger on dead Tigers)
    Tampa Bay 53% (-113), no real value either way.
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  22. 08-23-15 10:50 AM #22
    thebettingman15
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    Arizona at +110 ok?
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  23. 08-23-15 10:51 AM #23
    BeanTownClown88
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    Good shit LT..bol
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  24. 08-23-15 10:51 AM #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebettingman15 View Post
    so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?
    Sure I would, if actual odds are higher than model odds. I only post the 60%ers as an FYI because I was asked to.
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  25. 08-23-15 10:53 AM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebettingman15 View Post
    Arizona at +110 ok?
    No, note model odds of +108. Would want at least +118.
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  26. 08-23-15 10:53 AM #26
    thebettingman15
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Sure I would, if actual odds are higher than model odds. I only post the 60%ers as an FYI because I was asked to.
    i'm not quite sure i follow...
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  27. 08-23-15 10:54 AM #27
    thesalesman15
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Texas just 54% (-117) (but I am still having trouble pulling trigger on dead Tigers)
    Tampa Bay 53% (-113), no real value either way.
    thanks brother
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  28. 08-23-15 10:55 AM #28
    eddycash
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    So Saturday one of the total plays was backwards? That blows
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  29. 08-23-15 10:56 AM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebettingman15 View Post
    so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?
    Talking specifically about Twins game, "value" appears to be on O's -170ish, but I just don't lay those types of odds. Would take over +200 (which will certainly not happen) to consider Twins.
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  30. 08-23-15 10:57 AM #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    So Saturday one of the total plays was backwards? That blows
    Yeah I posted specifics in last post of Saturday thread. Shitty I know.
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  31. 08-23-15 10:57 AM #31
    eddycash
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    Since lines shift so often from the overnight plays, it takes too much energy to go back and research line movement on each play just to verify it is the actual correct play that you have provided.
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  32. 08-23-15 10:58 AM #32
    eddycash
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    Drink more coffee and stay sharper
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  33. 08-23-15 10:59 AM #33
    thebettingman15
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    I am with you, can't pull trigger on Detroit. Cabrera, and Victor Martinez have both had success against hamels. Also Fielder is out of lineup which is definitely an advantage towards Detroit. Makes their lineup much weaker and not as deep.
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  34. 08-23-15 10:59 AM #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebettingman15 View Post
    i'm not quite sure i follow...
    Model has O's -186. So model says Twins have no value but would at better than +200.
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  35. 08-23-15 11:01 AM #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    Since lines shift so often from the overnight plays, it takes too much energy to go back and research line movement on each play just to verify it is the actual correct play that you have provided.
    Takes two seconds on SBR Odds. That doesn't excuse me though, it was a STUPID STUPID mistake. I think first time I did that.
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