(Coll FB) Notes - 2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arch Manning: "Time to put away the anointing oils"?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Weber St +27.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Not really buying this line. James Madison roster has been ravaged over L2 years.
...New QB = Sluka (who played under Chesney at Holy Cross). Debacle at UNLV. Is he really a TOP qb?

1* OREGON ST +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94
...This line has bounced all over the place. Don't really get it.
...Cal had a ton of roster movement. So, I'm taking this price.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A couple added units:
*Port St +43.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*IOWA ST -14.5 1.87: 1 to win .87

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Three added-board plays for today. Each 1*:
*IOWA ST -15.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just think the # is too short. South Dakota had an OT poached. He's now starting at Cincinnati.

*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. T

*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. Team they lost to (TarletonSt) might be pretty good.
...BYU off a good year. QB situation a mess after Retzlaff dismissal.

*Northern Ariz +30 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Lumberjacks are ranked #19 in FCS. Return their All Conf QB.
...Sun Devils off a Home Run year. They lose RB Skattebo, who is irreplacable IMHO.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Three added-board plays for today. Each 1*:
*IOWA ST -15.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just think the # is too short. South Dakota had an OT poached. He's now starting at Cincinnati.

*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. T

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tarleton can play w/ em. Hoping for a cracking 2h.

Wow, Tarleton wins S/U:
1) Should be Top 5 in the next FCS poll.
2) Puts in a dent in Army SEA Win O/U. See post 13 (above).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit: Tarleton St +14 1.96: 1 to win .96

Tarleton can play w/ em. Hoping for a cracking 2h.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will give one other opinion on tonite's games:
*I know this Illinois team is good. But I question why they need to win by a million: 0* West ILL +48
...ILL has a good QB. We'll see how good the DEF is. The best ILL teams have strong defenses.
...Bielema has playoff aspirations. He'll want to keep his QB safe (Wisky's QB got injured). And why show your playbook?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Tarleton St +13.5 1.98: 1 to win .98
...Number got a little better. Action play. But I do like it.

2nd unit: Tarleton St +14 1.96: 1 to win .96

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Tarleton St +13.5 1.98: 1 to win .98
...Number got a little better. Action play. But I do like it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

0* opinion for tonite = Tarleton St +13.5
...No bet. I missed the good #.
...I was as well-studied as anyone on 2024 Army. It was a great team.
...Army dropoff will be big this year. I expect tonite's game to be a challenge.
...No bigger position dropoff than Army QB. Daily to Coleman. Daily was incredibly good as a dual threat.
...Offensive Line will not be as good. Won the Joe Moore Award last year. Some guys depart.
...Lastly, Army 2024 was good enuf to get hit by the tfr-portal poachers. You never used to see that at service academies.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wisconsin starting a ginger. Looks like a young Andy Dalton.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Added plays:
2* Hawaii +18 1.99: 2 to win 1.98
...HAW QB dinged up last game. But he's Probable, should play.
...I know it's Bows on the mainland. Number just looks too big.
...ARIZ loses their top WR. Hard to replace that production.

1* UCLA +6 1.92: 1 to win .92
...Juxtapose the two QBs. Nico was highly-touted. Reputation damaged, his stay at TENN ended badly.
...Dampier put up stats at New Mexico. He now heads to Utah. Step up in class.
...Dampier wasn't a top prospect. Feel like we're getting the better QB. And we're catching points at Home.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Loss. ytd: -.12/4

YTD: -.21/6. (Including a few WNBA plays).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two 1* plays:
*KANSAS -13.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Too many moving parts on Fresno. Like the Jayhawk chalk. W
*Sam Hou St +10 1.91: 1 to win .91. Both teams in transition. Looking for +10 to play.

L

dAY: -.09/2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

UNLV staring at a loss. I said last year that IDSt had some talent.

Man, that would be a tough debut for Coach Mullen:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks like we do have a few points of Line Value against the current #.

A few games kick today. GL to anyone in action!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Picked up
Liberty over 8.5 wins (-160)
Nevada +45.5 (-110)
Sam Houston St. +10 (-110)
Kansas -13.5 (-110)

Also I see Army Under 7.5 wins (+125)

Props, Chiefs. GL. I like those plays.

*My asterisk is that I acknowledge these plays being based on a limited amount of reading. These shouldn't be viewed as professional plays.

On the plays you listed:
*Take a look at Liberty's schedule. 1/3 of the opponents were FCS two years ago.
*I really don't like Penn St. They're now priced to the moon. Allar will be throwing to a receiving corps that barely has any career catches.
*Sam HOU and Kansas are based on power ratings. Should be getting at least 3 pts of line-value on those games.
*I love the Army under. I studied 2024 Army closely. They lose the QB/FB/3 Off Linemen, and key Defenders. Army got hit by the transfer portal, which is rare for an academy. The dropoff in QB production will be massive. This will look like a new team.

[Chiefs83]

Picked up
Liberty over 8.5 wins (-160)
Nevada +45.5 (-110)
Sam Houston St. +10 (-110)
Kansas -13.5 (-110)

Also I see Army Under 7.5 wins (+125)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two 1* plays:
*KANSAS -13.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Too many moving parts on Fresno. Like the Jayhawk chalk.
*Sam Hou St +10 1.91: 1 to win .91. Both teams in transition. Looking for +10 to play.

*One Jayhawk note. KAN was hyped up w/ QB Daniels in 2024. Home stadium was being renovated, they played home games 50mi away.
...Renovation completed. 2025 home games back on campus in Lawrence. Daniels should be sharper this year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two 1* plays:
*KANSAS -13.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Too many moving parts on Fresno. Like the Jayhawk chalk.
*Sam Hou St +10 1.91: 1 to win .91. Both teams in transition. Looking for +10 to play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another 2* WNBA play: IND -5 1.87: 2 to win 1.74

Loss. ytd: -.12/4

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another 2* WNBA play: IND -5 1.87: 2 to win 1.74

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bonus 2* WNBA play: 7/3 INDIANA +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

Win. ytd: +1.88/2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bonus 2* WNBA play: 7/3 INDIANA +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two Season Win bets:
1* ARMY - Under 7.5 2.15: 1 to win 1.15
1* Liberty - Over 9.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Liberty plays an unusually soft schedule.

Some pro-Liberty comments:
1) I admit to piggy-backing this one from the Brad Powers podcast.
2) Acknowledge that QB Salter went to COLO.
3) Focus on the schedule:

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/teams/main/liberty-flames/schedule

...Holy shit, this is a cupcake schedule.
...Liberty has had some success. Might be hard to schedule games vs Power 5. Those teams probably don't want to risk a loss.
...Powers thinks they might be favored in all 12 games. Start w/ Maine.
...Game @JaxSt. But that's a re-building roster/HC.
...Game @BowlGr. BG won't be as good. Just put stud TE into NFL.
...James MAD is also in transition. Best players now at Indiana.
...DELA and MizzSt are new FBS teams. KENNSt in 2nd year of FBS.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more Home Dogs:
1* AKRON +9.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
1* BAYLOR +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not betting this, as I don't have access to the #. But I'm going to pass along a Brad Powers play. 100% agree w/ his logic:
*ARMY: Under 7.5 Season Wins (2.14)
...This is a great bet at a Dog price (+114).
...Go back to my 2024 notes. I followed Army closely, watched all of their games.
...Army off a historic season. Twelve wins, really the best Army team since the days of Davis and Blanchard.
...QB Daily departs. Incredibly productive as a Runner and Passer. Massive production dropoff.
...Army Off Line won the Joe Moore award last year. Great Off Line, they lose three starters.
...Army DEF loses three starters after spring. Continued migration toward the Power CONF rosters.

Two Season Win bets:
1* ARMY - Under 7.5 2.15: 1 to win 1.15
1* Liberty - Over 9.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Liberty plays an unusually soft schedule.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not betting this, as I don't have access to the #. But I'm going to pass along a Brad Powers play. 100% agree w/ his logic:
*ARMY: Under 7.5 Season Wins (2.14)
...This is a great bet at a Dog price (+114).
...Go back to my 2024 notes. I followed Army closely, watched all of their games.
...Army off a historic season. Twelve wins, really the best Army team since the days of Davis and Blanchard.
...QB Daily departs. Incredibly productive as a Runner and Passer. Massive production dropoff.
...Army Off Line won the Joe Moore award last year. Great Off Line, they lose three starters.
...Army DEF loses three starters after spring. Continued migration toward the Power CONF rosters.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Read one story that really soured me on Coll FB. It's the story of the TENN QB Nico Iamaleava.

We know about the players skipping out on Bowl games. What about skipping Playoff games? Story is that Nico threatened to sit out the playoff game @ Ohio St.

Remember how bad TENN looked in that game? Maybe there was a reason. The bad feelings continued into spring-ball.

First off:
1) This guy Nico can screw. I'll never root for this guy.
2) WTF happened to collegiate sports? Reasonable tradeoff used to be: Play athletics for the school and you get a free degree from the school.
...This used to be a VERY GOOD deal. Especially if you came out of a good school. Think Big Ten.
...I've mentioned how the pro-player contracts are a big turnoff. That's now trickled down to College.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* COLORADO +4 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Geo Tech travelling west. I like the Home Dog here.
...People will knock Deion. But he is rebuilding the program with more talent.
...Huge score in the trf-portal by picking up QB Salter from Liberty. Lateral move from Shedeur.
...Yellow Jackets nearly sprung the big upset @ Georgia. But they didn't.
...Haynes King has seemingly been around forever. Guy is pretty tough. But the Road Fav looks overpriced here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I enjoy listing my thoughts on here. Not financial advice. Just my opinions based on my reading.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Nevada +45 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Penn St is going to be ranked either #1 or #2 in the first poll. Nittany Lions will be very pricy.
...Nitts return top two RBs. But I don't put a lot of stock on that position.
...I put more emphasis on losing two linch-pin players: TE Warren and DE Carter.
...Carter was a top draft-pick. Warren was (by far) Allar's top receiving target.
...By HOW MUCH was Warren Allar's top-target? Nitt WRs did not record a catch in the loss to Not Dame!
...Not a believer in QB Allar. Don't view him as a dynamic player.
...What redeeming value does NEV have in the big-dog role? QB Purdy is a tfr from Nebraska and now healthy.
...Nevada is under-valued. HC Choate is pretty good. And they lost seven games last year by 7 or fewer.
...Tune-up game for Penn St. Bigger fish to fry on the schedule. Don't get the QB injured, and don't show much on tape.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

First play of the year = (8/30) 1* Texas +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Despite my comments (above). I just think this # will be value by kickoff.
...TEX is going to be ranked very high (if not #1). Arch Manning may be the #2 Heisman choice behind Klubnik CLEM.
...Ohio St off a National title win. Lot of player/coach transition.

I'm happy with this play. Some reasons:
*OhioSt was built to be a Super Team in 2024. Guys turned down the NFL, transfers brought in.
*Massive turnover this year (14 NFL draft picks). Buckeyes lose: OC/DC, QB, top two RBs, #2 WR, and three Off Linemen.
*8 of the top 10 tacklers depart on Defense. And the Kicker struggled late in 2024.
*Texas (under Sarkisian) has recruited well. Horns are actually better equipped to re-load.
*QB Arch got game experience last year. Most analysts view the TEX Offense as more explosive w/ Arch (than Ewers).
*The Arch sentiment is coming. +3 will dip (IMHO). +3 should look like value versus the # @ kickoff.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One more opinion on the 2025 CollFB landscape: *I think the gap from Major to Mid-Major will be huge going fwd.
...You won't see Mid-Majors as strong as 2024 Boise going fwd.
...Marshall's roster was decimated. HC went to SoMiss. And he took half the roster w/ him.