Adding another unit on:
*MISS ST +7 2.00: 1 to win 1.00
*NEW MEX ST +3.5 2.03: 1 to win 1.03
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Brief writeups on these plays:
*Okla St: Can't get any worse than 2024. Oreg QB Moore may struggle w/ accuracy against real teams.
*Miss St: Shapen comes off injury, should improve the Miss St offense. ArizSt looks to be over-hyped sans Skattebo.
*New Mex St: Just a Home Dog play. Line flipping over 3 looks good. Tulsa's win last wk was versus a re-built roster.
*FlaIntl: I'm showing my disdain for Allar. FlaIntl showed some Rush game last week. Asking Allar to win by > six TDs.Leave a comment:
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1* 234 NORTH CAROL +4 1.94: 1 to win .94
...Just an action play. Responding to massive line-move.Leave a comment:
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Two plays:
2* 357 OklaSt +28 1.99: 2 to win 1.98
2* 398 MISS ST +7 1.94: 2 to win 1.88Leave a comment:
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1* Weber St +27.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Not really buying this line. James Madison roster has been ravaged over L2 years.
...New QB = Sluka (who played under Chesney at Holy Cross). Debacle at UNLV. Is he really a TOP qb?
1* OREGON ST +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94
...This line has bounced all over the place. Don't really get it.
...Cal had a ton of roster movement. So, I'm taking this price.Leave a comment:
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A couple added units:
*Port St +43.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*IOWA ST -14.5 1.87: 1 to win .87Leave a comment:
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*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. Team they lost to (TarletonSt) might be pretty good.
...BYU off a good year. QB situation a mess after Retzlaff dismissal.
*Northern Ariz +30 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Lumberjacks are ranked #19 in FCS. Return their All Conf QB.
...Sun Devils off a Home Run year. They lose RB Skattebo, who is irreplacable IMHO.Leave a comment:
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Three added-board plays for today. Each 1*:
*IOWA ST -15.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just think the # is too short. South Dakota had an OT poached. He's now starting at Cincinnati.
*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. TLeave a comment:
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Will give one other opinion on tonite's games:
*I know this Illinois team is good. But I question why they need to win by a million: 0* West ILL +48
...ILL has a good QB. We'll see how good the DEF is. The best ILL teams have strong defenses.
...Bielema has playoff aspirations. He'll want to keep his QB safe (Wisky's QB got injured). And why show your playbook?Leave a comment:
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1* Tarleton St +13.5 1.98: 1 to win .98
...Number got a little better. Action play. But I do like it.Leave a comment:
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0* opinion for tonite = Tarleton St +13.5
...No bet. I missed the good #.
...I was as well-studied as anyone on 2024 Army. It was a great team.
...Army dropoff will be big this year. I expect tonite's game to be a challenge.
...No bigger position dropoff than Army QB. Daily to Coleman. Daily was incredibly good as a dual threat.
...Offensive Line will not be as good. Won the Joe Moore Award last year. Some guys depart.
...Lastly, Army 2024 was good enuf to get hit by the tfr-portal poachers. You never used to see that at service academies.
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Added plays:
2* Hawaii +18 1.99: 2 to win 1.98
...HAW QB dinged up last game. But he's Probable, should play.
...I know it's Bows on the mainland. Number just looks too big.
...ARIZ loses their top WR. Hard to replace that production.
1* UCLA +6 1.92: 1 to win .92
...Juxtapose the two QBs. Nico was highly-touted. Reputation damaged, his stay at TENN ended badly.
...Dampier put up stats at New Mexico. He now heads to Utah. Step up in class.
...Dampier wasn't a top prospect. Feel like we're getting the better QB. And we're catching points at Home.Leave a comment:
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UNLV staring at a loss. I said last year that IDSt had some talent.
Man, that would be a tough debut for Coach Mullen:
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Looks like we do have a few points of Line Value against the current #.
A few games kick today. GL to anyone in action!Leave a comment:
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Props, Chiefs. GL. I like those plays.
*My asterisk is that I acknowledge these plays being based on a limited amount of reading. These shouldn't be viewed as professional plays.
On the plays you listed:
*Take a look at Liberty's schedule. 1/3 of the opponents were FCS two years ago.
*I really don't like Penn St. They're now priced to the moon. Allar will be throwing to a receiving corps that barely has any career catches.
*Sam HOU and Kansas are based on power ratings. Should be getting at least 3 pts of line-value on those games.
*I love the Army under. I studied 2024 Army closely. They lose the QB/FB/3 Off Linemen, and key Defenders. Army got hit by the transfer portal, which is rare for an academy. The dropoff in QB production will be massive. This will look like a new team.
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Picked up
Liberty over 8.5 wins (-160)
Nevada +45.5 (-110)
Sam Houston St. +10 (-110)
Kansas -13.5 (-110)
Also I see Army Under 7.5 wins (+125)Leave a comment:
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Two 1* plays:
*KANSAS -13.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Too many moving parts on Fresno. Like the Jayhawk chalk.
*Sam Hou St +10 1.91: 1 to win .91. Both teams in transition. Looking for +10 to play.Leave a comment:
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Some pro-Liberty comments:
1) I admit to piggy-backing this one from the Brad Powers podcast.
2) Acknowledge that QB Salter went to COLO.
3) Focus on the schedule:
...Holy shit, this is a cupcake schedule.
...Liberty has had some success. Might be hard to schedule games vs Power 5. Those teams probably don't want to risk a loss.
...Powers thinks they might be favored in all 12 games. Start w/ Maine.
...Game @JaxSt. But that's a re-building roster/HC.
...Game @BowlGr. BG won't be as good. Just put stud TE into NFL.
...James MAD is also in transition. Best players now at Indiana.
...DELA and MizzSt are new FBS teams. KENNSt in 2nd year of FBS.
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Two more Home Dogs:
1* AKRON +9.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
1* BAYLOR +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91Leave a comment:
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Not betting this, as I don't have access to the #. But I'm going to pass along a Brad Powers play. 100% agree w/ his logic:
*ARMY: Under 7.5 Season Wins (2.14)
...This is a great bet at a Dog price (+114).
...Go back to my 2024 notes. I followed Army closely, watched all of their games.
...Army off a historic season. Twelve wins, really the best Army team since the days of Davis and Blanchard.
...QB Daily departs. Incredibly productive as a Runner and Passer. Massive production dropoff.
...Army Off Line won the Joe Moore award last year. Great Off Line, they lose three starters.
...Army DEF loses three starters after spring. Continued migration toward the Power CONF rosters.Leave a comment:
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