Any sharp bettors looking for an edge?

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • The Genius
    SBR Hustler
    • 12-27-06
    • 91

    #1
    Any sharp bettors looking for an edge?
    Would it be possible to start a group of significant players who bet, move lines at 1 book then to bet back at another book?
    Anyone interested?
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    It's already done. You cant' do it in the big sports (the moves won't cover the buy back), but it can happen in smaller sports - especially if the bookmakers aren't familiar with the specific values of certain half-points.

    If you're serious about this, you need at least 200k in capital (you're usually risking juice for a low-odds middle).
    Comment
    • Arilou
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-16-06
      • 475

      #3
      I actually think it CAN be done in major sports, but you'd need that much more capitol and access to a wide array of books. In general, this is likely possible but far harder than it probably looks to you right now.
      Comment
      • ShamsWoof10
        SBR MVP
        • 11-15-06
        • 4827

        #4
        FAAAAAAAAAR HARDER because you are not the only money in.. Other bettors, middlers, or scalpers with big money can come in and either balance your bet or go the other way..
        Comment
        • The Genius
          SBR Hustler
          • 12-27-06
          • 91

          #5
          Don't know if that much ca$h is required.
          I am led to believe that lines are moved at some books when certain players make a bet.
          Could a group of 10 players here communicate a bet on 1 line per day, make it move and bet back when your % profit kicks in?
          Comment
          • degenerate#1
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-07-06
            • 125

            #6
            What'd you do, read a book from the 90's?
            Comment
            • The Genius
              SBR Hustler
              • 12-27-06
              • 91

              #7
              Originally posted by degenerate#1
              What'd you do, read a book from the 90's?
              lol
              Just thinking that now US players out of bookies, we may have moved back to the 90's!
              Comment
              • Lucas
                SBR MVP
                • 12-20-05
                • 1062

                #8
                Originally posted by The Genius
                Don't know if that much ca$h is required.
                I am led to believe that lines are moved at some books when certain players make a bet.
                Could a group of 10 players here communicate a bet on 1 line per day, make it move and bet back when your % profit kicks in?
                It really is not so easy: like Shams said, there are many others plus if bookie is not idiot, then he will not allow 10 maxbets without moving a line, therefore the second, third... pool bettor gets worse prize. If all the bettors bet at one moment at bookie who allow such a bet, you will be in trouble VERY QUICKLY.
                Comment
                • degenerate#1
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 08-07-06
                  • 125

                  #9
                  You are better off finding teams/pitchers where people will bet up then bet them early then sell off once it's bet up. It helps a lot with books like Matchbook.
                  Comment
                  • ShamsWoof10
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-15-06
                    • 4827

                    #10
                    Originally posted by degenerate#1
                    You are better off finding teams/pitchers where people will bet up then bet them early then sell off once it's bet up. It helps a lot with books like Matchbook.
                    Agreed!!!
                    Comment
                    • ShamsWoof10
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-15-06
                      • 4827

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Lucas
                      he will not allow 10 maxbets without moving a line, therefore the second, third... pool bettor gets worse prize.
                      VERY CORRECT!! I forgot to mention this good point Lucas..
                      Comment
                      • 20Four7
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-08-07
                        • 6703

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Lucas
                        It really is not so easy: like Shams said, there are many others plus if bookie is not idiot, then he will not allow 10 maxbets without moving a line, therefore the second, third... pool bettor gets worse prize. If all the bettors bet at one moment at bookie who allow such a bet, you will be in trouble VERY QUICKLY.

                        I made 3 max bets yesterday at pinnacle

                        1st bet +133
                        2nd bet +128
                        3rd bet +125

                        The line will move. This wasn't a major sport and the max bet was small but at pinny the line will move. I bet the max on a prop for basketball earlier and the line move was incredible.
                        Comment
                        • Dark Horse
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-14-05
                          • 13764

                          #13
                          If you can find one or more books that will take the action, I would look to move the NFL opening line on Sunday night, and only bet spreads that were either 3 or 7, or a half point from those numbers.

                          By betting that early you may be in it for the longer haul, because instead of irritating the book you give them information that they consider valuable. Just a thought.

                          Smaller sports may be better, but NFL should have higher limits. Too many details to work out and too risky for my taste.
                          Comment
                          • degenerate#1
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 08-07-06
                            • 125

                            #14
                            Originally posted by 20Four7
                            I made 3 max bets yesterday at pinnacle

                            1st bet +133
                            2nd bet +128
                            3rd bet +125

                            The line will move. This wasn't a major sport and the max bet was small but at pinny the line will move. I bet the max on a prop for basketball earlier and the line move was incredible.
                            Obviously if the max bet is 500 or 1000 a 1000 wager will move the line. Try moving the line for MLB and report back sir.
                            Comment
                            • vanzack
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 12-16-06
                              • 478

                              #15
                              Originally posted by degenerate#1
                              Obviously if the max bet is 500 or 1000 a 1000 wager will move the line. Try moving the line for MLB and report back sir.
                              Bingo.

                              To move the line a penny at Pinnacle on an NFL game would take 30K.

                              And then someone takes the other side and moves it right back.
                              Comment
                              • Lucas
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-20-05
                                • 1062

                                #16
                                if this can be done then definetelly not at pinny!
                                this is how it works at minor leagues, props, etc:
                                for simplicity let we consider that nobody have bet the event and line is -105/-105, adter you max one side line should move to -114/+104, then -123/+113, so you never get an arb in this way, you simply need someones else money!

                                yes, at some events line can be moved maybe more if they say true: by sharps, but sharps that they spot are usually different kind of bettors than arbers

                                also when the market is more "saturated", i mean when some people bet both sides in the past, max bet will not move it as much as you move openers

                                i see only way here, to hit openers with red circles, when maxbet is significantly lower and then hedge when red circles dissapear or change to blue, but without knowledge of the sport it is nonsense, because you can probably make nice valuebets on the other side and there are many people waiting for it as was sad, so they can steal "your" odds and you can go to work to McDonald - but this is only theory and i will not try to test it at pinnacle with my money
                                Comment
                                • raiders72002
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-06-07
                                  • 3368

                                  #17
                                  Use to do it all the time in Arena Football. Max bets, buying back while selling points setting up a scalp with a middle.

                                  10 different guys doing it from a forum would never work. You can't trust forum guys and some wouldn't be able to buy back because of the line changes.
                                  Comment
                                  • Actionbrett
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-03-07
                                    • 601

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by vanzack
                                    Bingo.

                                    To move the line a penny at Pinnacle on an NFL game would take 30K.

                                    And then someone takes the other side and moves it right back.
                                    If thats the case then how much money, in your opinion, was spent on Atlanta -1 to get this reaction, and how should I read something like this hapening?

                                    10/8/2006 7:34:44 PM Atlanta Falcons -3 109
                                    10/8/2006 7:33:23 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-121
                                    10/8/2006 7:32:43 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-115
                                    10/8/2006 7:32:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-111
                                    10/8/2006 7:32:02 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-108
                                    10/8/2006 7:31:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-104

                                    NFL Football, two point LM within the three minutes its been on the market at Pinnacle.
                                    Comment
                                    • Lucas
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-20-05
                                      • 1062

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Actionbrett
                                      If thats the case then how much money, in your opinion, was spent on Atlanta -1 to get this reaction, and how should I read something like this hapening?

                                      10/8/2006 7:34:44 PM Atlanta Falcons -3 109
                                      10/8/2006 7:33:23 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-121
                                      10/8/2006 7:32:43 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-115
                                      10/8/2006 7:32:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-111
                                      10/8/2006 7:32:02 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-108
                                      10/8/2006 7:31:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-104

                                      NFL Football, two point LM within the three minutes its been on the market at Pinnacle.
                                      who knows!
                                      it could be also some on air move, it is hard to say now

                                      right now i maxed opener at pinnacle WNBA allstar OVER 180 -105 and line is only -110
                                      Comment
                                      • Lucas
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-20-05
                                        • 1062

                                        #20
                                        OMG what an idiot i am... pinny has me probably in sharp case... line moved to 182 and i have middle with plus points... well actually it is hard to say, obviously they pay attention to WHO is betting
                                        Comment
                                        • jjgold
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-20-05
                                          • 388179

                                          #21
                                          never would work with posters because 7 out of every 10 are thiefs and compulsive gamblers, on paper it looks good but in reality you will get destroyed and burned.

                                          Very few groups make it and most go broke
                                          Comment
                                          • Actionbrett
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-03-07
                                            • 601

                                            #22
                                            I agree with Gold, I wouldnt mind getting somone elses response on my above example with a 2 point line movement in a few minutes..
                                            Comment
                                            • degenerate#1
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 08-07-06
                                              • 125

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Actionbrett
                                              I agree with Gold, I wouldnt mind getting somone elses response on my above example with a 2 point line movement in a few minutes..
                                              Who knows. Your looking at one game almost a year ago. Maybe there was something on Vick status, maybe your looking at the early line and they had low limits that day. Maybe Pinny was just adjusting their numbers.

                                              But from what I seen, it's mostly juice that moves when you get a bet down. There's probably some extraneous information that is not available now. But if you are assuming just on that one example you think you have the power to move the line at Pinny, BOL to you.
                                              Comment
                                              • tacomax
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-10-05
                                                • 9619

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Actionbrett
                                                I agree with Gold, I wouldnt mind getting somone elses response on my above example with a 2 point line movement in a few minutes..
                                                I was once sold a stone which I was told would keep me safe from bear attacks. I've had that stone in my pocket for 3 years and I've never been attacked by a bear.

                                                That means that the stone prevents bear attacks.
                                                Originally posted by pags11
                                                SBR would never get rid of me...ever...
                                                Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                                I'd probably most likely chose Pags to jack off too.
                                                Originally posted by curious
                                                taco is not a troll, he is a bubonic plague bacteria.
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  You would have to be out of your mnd to bet big money in unregulated contries, only place that is safe to bet big money if they take the bests is Vegas.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Justin7
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-31-06
                                                    • 8577

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Actionbrett
                                                    If thats the case then how much money, in your opinion, was spent on Atlanta -1 to get this reaction, and how should I read something like this hapening?

                                                    10/8/2006 7:34:44 PM Atlanta Falcons -3 109
                                                    10/8/2006 7:33:23 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-121
                                                    10/8/2006 7:32:43 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-115
                                                    10/8/2006 7:32:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-111
                                                    10/8/2006 7:32:02 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-108
                                                    10/8/2006 7:31:22 PM Atlanta Falcons -1-104

                                                    NFL Football, two point LM within the three minutes its been on the market at Pinnacle.
                                                    You made bets on Sunday evening, when opening limits are lowest. What were limits, 1k? The first 4 moves were "automove", and the last one was a manual adjustment.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • vanzack
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-16-06
                                                      • 478

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Actionbrett
                                                      I agree with Gold, I wouldnt mind getting somone elses response on my above example with a 2 point line movement in a few minutes..
                                                      Could have been an injury, could have been an adjustment to other books, I didnt check the date but it could have been early in the week, lots of things.

                                                      I can tell you for a FACT that on a saturday or sunday on a strong line they dont budge, even for big money.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • vanzack
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 12-16-06
                                                        • 478

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Justin7
                                                        You made bets on Sunday evening, when opening limits are lowest. What were limits, 1k? The first 4 moves were "automove", and the last one was a manual adjustment.
                                                        Didnt see this but if it was on a sunday night, what explanation are you looking for? Lines are volatile when they first come out and its not always because of money coming in.
                                                        Comment
                                                        Search
                                                        Collapse
                                                        SBR Contests
                                                        Collapse
                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                        Collapse
                                                        Working...