NEW Streak for the Cash

[lordswing]

obviously i'm happy with it now, but doesn't mean it was "right"

i was mostly focused on getting as many picks in as possible tonight since i have a L1 thanks to Cumslow

e: which looking at the picks tonight, would've been futile since you can only get 2 in

[yisman]

you missed some picks

italian soccer and then the college football prop

[lordswing]

hah, i'm just going to stop posting tonight, really did not pay attention today

probably going with Lakers instead of Touchdown

[lordswing]

Bunch of solid picks today

[yisman]

yeah and I'm on a losing streak and won't be online much longer

#*&$^#

[lordswing]

yeah and I'm on a losing streak and won't be online much longer

#*&$^#

don't you have a ghost or whatever to get your picks in?

either way, only because of the side bet

[revnecro1273]

Bunch of solid picks today

is that sarcasm? because i think the choices today blow

[lordswing]

is that sarcasm? because i think the choices today blow

no sarcasm this time (lines I wrote down, so not current)

Borussia -134, Portland -6.5, Buffalo -146 for the day stuff (I went ahead and picked the Over on the golf prop for the hell of it and got lucky)

Hawks are -139, Knicks are -160

I just wished I could've played Portland and Buffalo, but that's not going to happen.

[lordswing]

suck a dick horford

[lordswing]

the TT o/u line is slightly off, but going with some castrated turkeys

[yisman]

don't you have a ghost or whatever to get your picks in?

either way, only because of the side bet

he used to be on more often

now he only gets in like 2 picks while I'm away

this time at least it was two winners.

RE: yesterday

Only really special one was Portland, and their line actually closed at -5.

After that I'd put Moore under 2.5 TDs and Andre Miller

then Borussia and Knicks

buffalo/ball state was nothing special

[lordswing]

ugh, Florida or Clemson, decisions decisions

[yisman]

I'm going Florida.

[revnecro1273]

on florida as well...hope they lose

[revnecro1273]

ugh, Florida or Clemson, decisions decisions

clemson? you actually thought about taking a dog?

[yisman]

I assume he meant FSU

opening kickoff to the house

[revnecro1273]

I assume he meant FSU

opening kickoff to the house

probably right...not sure if dude ever took a dog before

[lordswing]

sorry, whoever was the fav

went with Florida, but I hate all these teams

and live betting was a failure today, turns out SBET was much much sharper than Pinny

e: I take plenty of dogs, just none in SftC

[revnecro1273]

sorry, whoever was the fav

went with Florida, but I hate all these teams

and live betting was a failure today, turns out SBET was much much sharper than Pinny

e: I take plenty of dogs, just none in SftC

why not?

[yisman]

leaderboard all over ok state and fsu

only a few on florida

[lordswing]

why not?

I don't pick underdogs because I don't get advantages such as +points or +moneylines like I would in gambling. The "easiest" way I know how to play SftC is to pick the biggest favorites available out there and hope with a little luck I can build a bigger streak.

This is also why I get annoyed when I see the "awful" picks in the winners' history, and thus I've stopped looking at them too.

[yisman]

Oklahoma State and South Carolina win in routs.

Unfortunate.

[fish237859]

Id streak for cash any day through the quads and into the gymnasium

[lordswing]

starting over, fresno just scored, assuming that means nevada gets the ball at the half. nevada has a lot of rushing tds. rushing tds it is, yay for "research"

[yisman]

it really is that simple with these props

if it's about even, take AOTD

in this case, it's a clear advantage to rushing TDs, so go rushing TD. I checked earlier and Fresno is about even passing/rushing, while Nevada has a huge amount of rushing TDs as they do every year. They don't pass a lot.

[lordswing]

So second day in a row I've gone 3-0, then pick up a loss

At least it boosts my % I guess, tomorrow's slate looks pretty good except the whole waking up to get that 9am pick in

[revnecro1273]

So second day in a row I've gone 3-0, then pick up a loss

At least it boosts my % I guess, tomorrow's slate looks pretty good except the whole waking up to get that 9am pick in

you think so? hate fricking nfl...looks like a 2 pick day for me

[lordswing]

4 day pick for me if i can squeeze them in

[revnecro1273]

i boycot nfl...so only 2 windows for me

[revnecro1273]

buffalo and jacksonville both look good to me...higher percentage is on the dog in both match ups...if i am up in time, maybe i will take one of those 2

[lordswing]

@Yis/anyone else I guess

How do you "control" your live bets? They're obviously a different animal than regular bets, and even though I "only" wager 1-3x, that quickly adds up after every commercial break when your retard book keeps giving lines that are off from Pinny.

Case in point, I ended up having 5.5 units tied up in the UGA/AU total (U72.5, U77.5, U79.5). All of them were off at Pinny by at least a FG, the U77.5 was off by a full TD that I made my biggest wager on (3x). I also picked up Auburn -7.5 for 3x when they were 10.5 at Pinny, that ending was a bit better for me.

Pinny doesn't offer drop down menus for live betting (and doesn't let you buy down a TD), so I'm left in the dark on how much better a TD is in a total. I placed 3x with my "gut" or w/e, eventually going back to check with the half point calculator* to find out I should've bet 6x with half kelly, which I'm fine with as live betting is different.

*I wound up using 63.5 (Pinny had 70.5, retard book had 77.5) -110/-110 as my inputs, then scrolling down to 70.5 since it doesn't have enough data when you start/reach 70. Plugged in -130 (the live bet tax) for U70.5, giving me a 10.5 EV and a 62% chance to win

I'm pretty sure my technique is solid based on the amount of time I have (which I help myself by having excel spit out the juice, giving me quick odds and a very rough half kelly calculator. i do frequently keep the half point calculator open though, but take those results with a grain of salt).

Between trying not to get IP banned by Pinny, keeping track of the current score/s (very, very important), figuring out how much to wager, and being limited by time, live betting is a handful for me.

e: Go Everton!

[yisman]

yeah it's a handful.

I have no perfect system. I make the size of the bet depending on how off the line is.

I rarely end up making big bets because the books aren't off by enough. The big ones would be arb opportunities, where I bet books against each other, but with live betting, there's a solid chance one will reject your bet. Risky.

[yisman]

don't like any of the 1 PM picks but I guess I'll go with the Jets

everton lost by 1.

[revnecro1273]

buffalo and jacksonville both look good to me...higher percentage is on the dog in both match ups...if i am up in time, maybe i will take one of those 2

figures...would have won both of those

[lordswing]

****, going to miss out on the Cardinals thanks to OT