I have noticed that Bookmaker tends to be a good early indicator on which way the line will move. Matchbook also.
Am I missing the best one?
Am I missing the best one?
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Yea matchbookComment -
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There are only a few books which actually set lines, the rest of the books typically follow suit.Comment -
For example pinny will be at +180 for a game, other books will be around that, but bookmaker moves to +190 before pinny even moves. When bookmaker has the best line on a game it seems like a good indicator of which way the pinny line will move, but not always of course.predictor of pinnacle line movement
... not sure i follow, centaurComment -
perhaps on some openers and that would be very rare...just because one book beats them to an opener, it certainly doesnt mean they are following that book...if you are waiting on pinny to follow a book after the lines are open, you are going to be waiting quite a while... after lines are set, pinny follows nobody...unless its a headfake, the players dictate the movesComment -
I guess its pure coincidence that books all fluctuate within minutes of each other to a similar number. Obviously bettors out there have some impact in the sense that they are jumping at the "off" numbers while they are still available.Comment -
Good luck chasing steam, that ship has sailed.Comment -
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I think Im just not explaining myself well.
Some people with money at book A (Bookmaker) know that a lot of money will at sometime in the near future (30 minutes,2 hrs, etc) be put on side 1 at book B (Pinnacle). Therefore these guys at book A go ahead and put their money on side 1 before the price gets worse because of the upcoming pinny move.
I'm asking what is the most reliable book A for this scenario. Bookmaker and Matchbook are ones I have noticed that when they have a different line before a pinny change the movement eventually goes that way. I am not asking what book does pinny follow, Im asking what book best predicts eventual line movement. Pinnacle causes instantaneous movement.
It's entirely possible there is no such book, just seems like I have noticed itComment -
what you are giving an example of is someone knowing what the next move at pinny will be...thats virtually impossible...how does one know that big money will hit a certain side? but i guess if you did know in advance, the book with the highest limits would be the choice(bm)... and you would be rolling in money hand over fist
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Pourquoi?Originally posted by Rod1010Pinny live movement
you guys are penetrating stupid
Maybe we need to meet at Berri-uqam station at high noon and work this outComment -
Some of the old school books use Pinny/Bookmaker and a consensus of 4 or 5 major houses to set a median line which they will then track Pinny and Bookmaker. They also keep 5 to 10 quantifiable wise guys or sharps on the sheet that have been on the houses sheet for years and track their action pushing off of it when appropriate compared to a Pinny. These sharps, and I mean really sharp players get information faster than a Pinny and this type of shop can beat Pinny to the number. It is not across the board, a line here and there or maybe a market that their traders are just a little weak in. Also, sometimes (as stated by a Pinny trader in an interview with SBR) Pinny just does not know where to set a line so they throw one up close to where they think it should be and then let the market move it to where it should go. Pinny does not know everything unlike some would think...Comment -
PS... I can only think of 2 or 3 reputable big services that do the above as stated. Will not say who though, have to keep some secrets.Comment -
Only matchbook.Comment -
Touchback- it sounds like this is the kind of thing that could be discovered/exploited using historical odds data. Would be a decent data mining project.Comment -
Yes... you have to find out which services move their lines this way though and that could take some time. Not going to help you with the ones I know of though... sorry Mat.Comment -
Wouldn't ask you to! That would take away all the fun (and the challenge).Comment -
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I know most of you are offshore/internet players..... But I have had great success in the past tracking lines, often involving locals, websites, and/or offshores. I just gamble now strickly for entertainment and won't put the time or effort into this activity. Don't dismiss the use of a local or two. Years ago, when I was far more entrenched into gambling, one of my bigger locals (I had 4) made sure to tell me to use the new phone number. He was well aware one of his players, that he didn't like, used his lines to inform him somehow and help make his plays and he was gonna let this dude run with the old number and feed him lines. It surprised me then that this book was affected and aware of this flea. But it told me it must be affective.
As far as offshores, I have done well tracking Sportbet(5 Dimes) hockey lines against JustBet. I'm not talking the crap SBR puts up as their "live lines" tracking. I'm talking having an account and getting the actual lines (MUCH different numbers than I see here from SBR). It can be very fruit full for weeks even a couple months but inevitably ends up flipping. Of course, I try and flip along with the read but it isn't nearly as good. If it was that simple, data/software players would just run a simple program to make money off these reads and own Vegas. It ain't that simple. I tried to track pro hoops and didn't see any help. I haven't looked into bases. I like to track lines involving sports that grind out games multiple times in a week.
I got too much going on now to set aside the time
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For a guy who has been at it as long as you Cent, your own capping is and should be the best indicator and flag those opportunities to which line movement really matters.Comment -
seems like this thread should be in the think tank... then again, no one giving actual answersComment -
The think tank is a cesspool. Quality (or even average) posters of the past seem to be long gone. Place should be nuked back to the stone age/turned into a parking lot.Comment
