What book is the best predictor of pinnacle line movement?

[TheCentaur]

I have noticed that Bookmaker tends to be a good early indicator on which way the line will move. Matchbook also.

Am I missing the best one?

[Vinnie Paz]

Yea matchbook

[raydog]

predictor of pinnacle line movement ... not sure i follow, centaur

[SpreadSniper]

There are only a few books which actually set lines, the rest of the books typically follow suit.

[TheCentaur]

predictor of pinnacle line movement ... not sure i follow, centaur

For example pinny will be at +180 for a game, other books will be around that, but bookmaker moves to +190 before pinny even moves. When bookmaker has the best line on a game it seems like a good indicator of which way the pinny line will move, but not always of course.

[SpreadSniper]

For example pinny will be at +180 for a game, other books will be around that, but bookmaker moves to +190 before pinny even moves. When bookmaker has the best line on a game it seems like a good indicator of which way the pinny line will move, but not always of course.

Bookmaker - "where the line originates" - get it?

Bookmaker simply sets/adjusts lines and others (including Pinny) follow suit.

[raydog]

Bookmaker - "where the line originates" - get it?

Bookmaker simply sets/adjusts lines and others (including Pinny) follow suit.

perhaps on some openers and that would be very rare...just because one book beats them to an opener, it certainly doesnt mean they are following that book...if you are waiting on pinny to follow a book after the lines are open, you are going to be waiting quite a while... after lines are set, pinny follows nobody...unless its a headfake, the players dictate the moves

[TheCentaur]

after lines are set, pinny follows nobody...

I agree, I'm just wondering if there is sharp or informed action at other books that know which way pinny is going to move

[SpreadSniper]

I guess its pure coincidence that books all fluctuate within minutes of each other to a similar number. Obviously bettors out there have some impact in the sense that they are jumping at the "off" numbers while they are still available.

[raiders72001]

I agree, I'm just wondering if there is sharp or informed action at other books that know which way pinny is going to move

Pinny doesn't move their line according to movement of another book. If anything, it's the other way around.

[TheCentaur]

Pinny doesn't move their line according to movement of another book. If anything, it's the other way around.

I understand that. That's why a book that has smart action ahead of pinny is valuable, because no one is watching it, they're watching pinny

[boeing power]

Good luck chasing steam, that ship has sailed.

[raydog]

I guess its pure coincidence that books all fluctuate within minutes of each other to a similar number. Obviously bettors out there have some impact in the sense that they are jumping at the "off" numbers while they are still available.

its not coincidence... they are following Pinny and have been for many years, not the other way around...

its always funny to see pinny make a mistake and see 2-3 other books make the same huge mistake because all they are doing is cloning them

[raydog]

I understand that. That's why a book that has smart action ahead of pinny is valuable, because no one is watching it, they're watching pinny

in this case, yes, BM would be the place to get such action and make a move... but honestly, pinny pays no attention to what goes on elsewhere and i really dont think BM does either...their price and line structuring is completely different from one another...

[TheCentaur]

I think Im just not explaining myself well.

Some people with money at book A (Bookmaker) know that a lot of money will at sometime in the near future (30 minutes,2 hrs, etc) be put on side 1 at book B (Pinnacle). Therefore these guys at book A go ahead and put their money on side 1 before the price gets worse because of the upcoming pinny move.

I'm asking what is the most reliable book A for this scenario. Bookmaker and Matchbook are ones I have noticed that when they have a different line before a pinny change the movement eventually goes that way. I am not asking what book does pinny follow, Im asking what book best predicts eventual line movement. Pinnacle causes instantaneous movement.

It's entirely possible there is no such book, just seems like I have noticed it

[raydog]

I think Im just not explaining myself well.

Some people with money at book A (Bookmaker) know that a lot of money will at sometime in the near future (30 minutes,2 hrs, etc) be put on side 1 at book B (Pinnacle). Therefore these guys at book A go ahead and put their money on side 1 before the price gets worse because of the upcoming pinny move.

I'm asking what is the most reliable book A for this scenario. Bookmaker and Matchbook are ones I have noticed that when they have a different line before a pinny change the movement eventually goes that way. I am not asking what book does pinny follow, Im asking what book best predicts eventual line movement. Pinnacle causes instantaneous movement.

It's entirely possible there is no such book, just seems like I have noticed it

what you are giving an example of is someone knowing what the next move at pinny will be...thats virtually impossible...how does one know that big money will hit a certain side? but i guess if you did know in advance, the book with the highest limits would be the choice(bm)... and you would be rolling in money hand over fist

[TheCentaur]

Pinny live movement you guys are penetrating stupid

Pourquoi?
Maybe we need to meet at Berri-uqam station at high noon and work this out

[touchback]

I agree, I'm just wondering if there is sharp or informed action at other books that know which way pinny is going to move

Some of the old school books use Pinny/Bookmaker and a consensus of 4 or 5 major houses to set a median line which they will then track Pinny and Bookmaker. They also keep 5 to 10 quantifiable wise guys or sharps on the sheet that have been on the houses sheet for years and track their action pushing off of it when appropriate compared to a Pinny. These sharps, and I mean really sharp players get information faster than a Pinny and this type of shop can beat Pinny to the number. It is not across the board, a line here and there or maybe a market that their traders are just a little weak in. Also, sometimes (as stated by a Pinny trader in an interview with SBR) Pinny just does not know where to set a line so they throw one up close to where they think it should be and then let the market move it to where it should go. Pinny does not know everything unlike some would think...

[touchback]

PS... I can only think of 2 or 3 reputable big services that do the above as stated. Will not say who though, have to keep some secrets.

[lakerboy]

Only matchbook.

[matthew919]

Touchback- it sounds like this is the kind of thing that could be discovered/exploited using historical odds data. Would be a decent data mining project.

[touchback]

Yes... you have to find out which services move their lines this way though and that could take some time. Not going to help you with the ones I know of though... sorry Mat.

[matthew919]

Wouldn't ask you to! That would take away all the fun (and the challenge).

[touchback]

[I/O]

I know most of you are offshore/internet players..... But I have had great success in the past tracking lines, often involving locals, websites, and/or offshores. I just gamble now strickly for entertainment and won't put the time or effort into this activity. Don't dismiss the use of a local or two. Years ago, when I was far more entrenched into gambling, one of my bigger locals (I had 4) made sure to tell me to use the new phone number. He was well aware one of his players, that he didn't like, used his lines to inform him somehow and help make his plays and he was gonna let this dude run with the old number and feed him lines. It surprised me then that this book was affected and aware of this flea. But it told me it must be affective.

As far as offshores, I have done well tracking Sportbet(5 Dimes) hockey lines against JustBet. I'm not talking the crap SBR puts up as their "live lines" tracking. I'm talking having an account and getting the actual lines (MUCH different numbers than I see here from SBR). It can be very fruit full for weeks even a couple months but inevitably ends up flipping. Of course, I try and flip along with the read but it isn't nearly as good. If it was that simple, data/software players would just run a simple program to make money off these reads and own Vegas. It ain't that simple. I tried to track pro hoops and didn't see any help. I haven't looked into bases. I like to track lines involving sports that grind out games multiple times in a week.

I got too much going on now to set aside the time

[CoachJB]

Good luck chasing steam, that ship has sailed.

[billysink]

For a guy who has been at it as long as you Cent, your own capping is and should be the best indicator and flag those opportunities to which line movement really matters.

[Peregrine Stoop]

seems like this thread should be in the think tank... then again, no one giving actual answers

[matthew919]

The think tank is a cesspool. Quality (or even average) posters of the past seem to be long gone. Place should be nuked back to the stone age/turned into a parking lot.

[raydog]

seems like this thread should be in the think tank... then again, no one giving actual answers

im not sure which of my posts you dont understand, but there are answers in each of them... if you think you know something different, please enlighten us...thanks

[NobodyUKnow]

Bookmaker - "where the line originates" - get it?

Bookmaker simply sets/adjusts lines and others (including Pinny) follow suit.

LMAO. That is so ignorant.