NBA dogs - great start to the season

[Mudcat]

I don't know if anyone else is interested in this stuff but after a couple of big upsets yesterday, the season-to-date on dogs of +200 or more looks like this:

1-Nov mil 240 W
den 285 L
NO 312 W
2-Nov ORL 275 L
no 777 L
mil 380 W
MEM 210 L
phi 345 L
port 570 L
cha 450 L
sac 316 L
lac 240 W
atl 760 L
lal 256 W
3-Nov ind 210 W
4-Nov cha 300 W
cle 295 L
port 650 L
atl 575 L
ut 270 W
5-Nov orl 360 L
chi 203 L
tor 690 L
phi 590 W
no 770 W
atl 285 L


That's 10-16, +19.68 units.

[EBone]

Great stuff, Mudcat. Info like this is why I come here.


E

[BuddyBear]

Thanks Mudcat...you recommend we play dog money lines or should we hold off till the game 10 of the season like you mentioned in your previous thread?

[picantel]

Darn there are no +200 games today. I am wonder how phoenix is only a 5 pt fave over sac and the knicks are given 4 over GS.

[rm18]

Dogs have actually been more successful in first halfs than full games winning over 50% straight up

[newb411breaker19]

I can't believe the kings are only 4 point dogs right now. sacramento is scoring only 81 points per 100 possessions while phoenix is scoring 105. Phoenix's effective fg% is around 50% (not including last night i dont think) compared to sacramentos 37%. I was contemplating the over but Sacramentos poor offensive production scared me from it. But i'm definitely taking phoenix at -4

[Mudcat]

Thanks Mudcat...you recommend we play dog money lines or should we hold off till the game 10 of the season like you mentioned in your previous thread?

Good question. I've got some early season data from the last couple years which I'll check when I get a chance and I'll let you know. There won't be enough for any big conclusion but it's worth a look. There is some strong theory to support betting early season dogs (i.e. - lines, being driven by bettor psychology, are more based on old reputations than current reality) but I have found it doesn't work in all sports all the time.

Personally, I'm just collecting research right now and won't start betting until the season gets going. It's something I may pick up in future years though.