Question for the horse guys....

[Bluehorseshoe]

You would know better than me. Does that seem like a super low price for that trifecta with those two horses on top??



Results (Santa Anita - R5)
Finish Pos Runner Win Place Show
1st Moment's Pleasure $12.80 $6.40 $3.80
2nd Lady Claypoole (Ire) $8.40 $4.20
3rd Word Play (Gb) $2.60
4th Shocking Grey

$1.00 Exacta 11-7 $44.40
$1.00 Trifecta 11-7-4 $176.90
$0.10 Superfecta 11-7-4-5 $47.90
$5.00 Daily Double 9-11 $197.00
$3.00 Pick 3 1-9-11 $409.80
$0.50 Pick 4 4 OF 4 1-1-9-11 $160.15
$0.50 Pick 5 5 OF 5 2,4,14-1-1-9-11 $883.50

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Not at all, looks typical to me.

[ThaWoj]

Its weak for a 10 horse field at santa anita where they have big pools. What hurt you was 3rd choice on top and favorite getting 3rd. 225 for a buck would have been more what I expected.

Also your winner was steamed down from 8/1 ml to 5/1. Your 2nd place was steamed down from 12/1 to 8/1. And your 3rd place chalk was hit from 6/1 to 2/1. So basically all the steam hit and I know a lot of bettors including myself will exacta and tri box all the steam in a race

[JBEX]

an excellent payoff based on final odds. you quadrupled the exacta with a 2-1in 3rd ..imo a $110-120 for $1 about right

[str]

an excellent payoff based on final odds. you quadrupled the exacta with a 2-1in 3rd ..imo a $110-120 for $1 about right

Its weak for a 10 horse field at santa anita where they have big pools. What hurt you was 3rd choice on top and favorite getting 3rd. 225 for a buck would have been more what I expected.

Also your winner was steamed down from 8/1 ml to 5/1. Your 2nd place was steamed down from 12/1 to 8/1. And your 3rd place chalk was hit from 6/1 to 2/1. So basically all the steam hit and I know a lot of bettors including myself will exacta and tri box all the steam in a race

Agree with JBEX here.

Couple of things.

1. Don't ever expect the combo of 7-11 to pay top dollar. It's a popular combination as we all know. It will almost always be bet down more than it ordinarily would just because of the "lucky numbers" theory.

2. When you see a morning line of 8-1 on just about any horse, the lines maker is basically saying, this horse could run very well, or no good and I have no idea which. It is a saver type morning line. If you notice, you see it often with first time starters as well as horses that have showed the talent to win at that level but are not in top form now. The lines maker is basically saying, look harder and double check this horse before tossing.

If you have any questions about this or want to learn more about horse racing, check out the questions and answers thread in the horse racing section. You ask, and I will answer.

Hope that helps.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Agree with JBEX here.

Couple of things.

1. Don't ever expect the combo of 7-11 to pay top dollar. It's a popular combination as we all know. It will almost always be bet down more than it ordinarily would just because of the "lucky numbers" theory.

2. When you see a morning line of 8-1 on just about any horse, the lines maker is basically saying, this horse could run very well, or no good and I have no idea which. It is a saver type morning line. If you notice, you see it often with first time starters as well as horses that have showed the talent to win at that level but are not in top form now. The lines maker is basically saying, look harder and double check this horse before tossing.

If you have any questions about this or want to learn more about horse racing, check out the questions and answers thread in the horse racing section. You ask, and I will answer.

Hope that helps.

Not a big horse guy but never thought about that but makes sense.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Agree with JBEX here.

Couple of things.

1. Don't ever expect the combo of 7-11 to pay top dollar. It's a popular combination as we all know. It will almost always be bet down more than it ordinarily would just because of the "lucky numbers" theory.

Get out! I had no idea. LOL

[Bluehorseshoe]

Not a big horse guy but never thought about that but makes sense.

Posting the same thing at the same time. LOL

[str]

Not a big horse guy but never thought about that but makes sense.

Get out! I had no idea. LOL

I know. Crazy right? 1-2, is another low paying number but 7-11 is probably the biggest low payout culprit. The racetrack fans are unbelievably superstitious. At Pimlico every spring, it was just another day at work when you saw a guy walking around with pigeon crap all over his shirt or jacket. In the old section of the track, the pigeons hung out in the rafters and if you stood down there, it wasn't too long before you got crapped on if you stood under them. But you see, it is bad luck to wipe it off and good luck if you don't so... I loved walking down there towards the end of the card and seeing if someone was walking around with a pigeon bomb on their shirt or coat.
If I had time to kill late in the card waiting for the last race to run, I watched people sometimes. Talk about Lolol. If you ever have a race to kill and no betting interest in a race, watch from the staircase or whatever looking down at the group around a TV screen as they horses run through the stretch. Everybody is hollering, cussing, whipping themselves with a rolled up program, snapping fingers, whatever. When the horses hit the finish, almost everyone turns away and bitches. One or two will high five, and a few will check there tickets to see if they had it. And no offense meant to anyone but the Jamaican guys speak their language and all you here right at the end of the race is is bushabal, wooshgabal, russclot, mother f...... Honestly I was not laughing at them in particular but it shows you that no matter the language, no matter the skin color or religion, we are very much the same when it come to the track at least.

The things people do are so funny to watch. And when you see how stupid they look, you learn to check yourself in case someone is watching you. Oh the funny memories over a lot of years.
What a game.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I know. Crazy right? 1-2, is another low paying number but 7-11 is probably the biggest low payout culprit. The racetrack fans are unbelievably superstitious. At Pimlico every spring, it was just another day at work when you saw a guy walking around with pigeon crap all over his shirt or jacket. In the old section of the track, the pigeons hung out in the rafters and if you stood down there, it wasn't too long before you got crapped on if you stood under them. But you see, it is bad luck to wipe it off and good luck if you don't so... I loved walking down there towards the end of the card and seeing if someone was walking around with a pigeon bomb on their shirt or coat.
If I had time to kill late in the card waiting for the last race to run, I watched people sometimes. Talk about Lolol. If you ever have a race to kill and no betting interest in a race, watch from the staircase or whatever looking down at the group around a TV screen as they horses run through the stretch. Everybody is hollering, cussing, whipping themselves with a rolled up program, snapping fingers, whatever. When the horses hit the finish, almost everyone turns away and bitches. One or two will high five, and a few will check there tickets to see if they had it. And no offense meant to anyone but the Jamaican guys speak their language and all you here right at the end of the race is is bushabal, wooshgabal, russclot, mother f...... Honestly I was not laughing at them in particular but it shows you that no matter the language, no matter the skin color or religion, we are very much the same when it come to the track at least.

The things people do are so funny to watch. And when you see how stupid they look, you learn to check yourself in case someone is watching you. Oh the stupid memories.
What a game.

Never heard about that either.

[Jellymancan]

Really good payout to me. Jbex and str make great points.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Really good payout to me. Jbex and str make great points.

Remember this one? Kryptonite:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Blue has actually explained the conundrum of the Horse-bettor quite well:

1) The horse-juice is too high.
...In sports-betting, 20-cent juice means that $210 is paid out on $220 bet. That's ~ a 4.5% vig.
...In horse-betting, that is more like $82 paid out on $100 risked. That's an 18.0% vig.
...Quadruple the vig when comparing Horses to Sports.

2) Even bigger factor for me is the Parimutuel versus Fixed Odds.
...In sports, it's about the price on your ticket. It's locked in.
...In horses, it's Parimutuel. It's dependent on the pool of bettors. Your horse is 3/1 on the board @5min to post. You get up to bet it, you come back to your seat. It's now going off @8/5 with one Min to Post, your value is gone.

[unusialsusp5]

In that odds situation the favorite finishing 3rd is what killed the price. Actually the favorite finishing 3rd in any race will seriously lower the trifecta payoff I have found. This particular race wasn't too severely impacted by it as the field was large enough to overcome it. A professional bettor would never put the favorite in the 3rd spot especially in a field of 7 or less. They would just go heavier on the exacta instead.

[INVEGA MAN]

Very interesting

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In that odds situation the favorite finishing 3rd is what killed the price. Actually the favorite finishing 3rd in any race will seriously lower the trifecta payoff I have found. This particular race wasn't too severely impacted by it as the field was large enough to overcome it. A professional bettor would never put the favorite in the 3rd spot especially in a field of 7 or less. They would just go heavier on the exacta instead.

Good stuff. I've heard this type of thing:

*The horse-betting Pros focus on structuring their bets.

...I don't claim to know any of this stuff. But I've heard people talk.
...The horse-betting hurdle rate is high. See my post above about the vig being ~ 18%.
...The TOP horse-pro can bet a 6/1 shot that has a true Win probability of 20%. Rinse and repeat.
...I'd imagine that the exotic ticket structuring can be very thorough. The best identify the value spots.

[mjsuax13]

Remember this one? Kryptonite:

Old Eddie Mush

[dollarbill]

1st Moment's Pleasure $12.80 $6.40 $3.80
2nd Lady Claypoole (Ire) $8.40 $4.20
3rd Word Play (Gb) $2.60

$1.00 Trifecta 11-7-4 $176.90

win x place x show 12x 8 x 2 = 192 gives me ballpark figure on any triples

[JBEX]

1st Moment's Pleasure $12.80 $6.40 $3.80
2nd Lady Claypoole (Ire) $8.40 $4.20
3rd Word Play (Gb) $2.60

$1.00 Trifecta 11-7-4 $176.90

win x place x show 12x 8 x 2 = 192 gives me ballpark figure on any triples

this is wrong..

ex

$6 winner
2-1 in 2nd
10-1 3rd

this triple is not paying $120 (6×2×10)
for $2

$6 (33% pool) 66% left
2-1 same (33% pool)
66÷33 =2
$6 *2 = $12 exacta

top 2 horses (both 2-1) represent 66% pool..33% left

10-1 in 3rd
10 odds+1 =11
100/11 = 9% of pool

33%(left) / 9% about 3.7

12 ex * 3.7 =$44

$44 about what a $2 triple should pay with these odds..it coincidentally almost worked with the other (192) but this is how you figure it

[dollarbill]

Ball park figure...

This payout 36 x's 2 =72 divided by 4 for 50 cent tri paid 18 Ballpark figure is $15

4
PP 4

Maximus MeridiusJohn R VelazquezRobert E Reid; Jr

$6.90
$3.50
$2.30

2
PP 2

Full Moon MadnessKendrick CarmoucheMichelle Nevin

-
$6.50
$3.20

3
PP 3

RunninsonofagunJoel RosarioJohn T Toscano; Jr

-
-
$2.30

[COLOR=var(--gray7)]Pool Type
Runners

Payout

[/COLOR]
$1 Exa
4/2

$14.10

$0.50 Trifecta
4/2/3

$15.62

Another example
is 2nd race at Aqueduct today

[JBEX]

Ball park figure...

This payout 36 x's 2 =72 divided by 4 for 50 cent tri paid 18 Ballpark figure is $15

4
PP 4

Maximus MeridiusJohn R VelazquezRobert E Reid; Jr

$6.90
$3.50
$2.30

2
PP 2

Full Moon MadnessKendrick CarmoucheMichelle Nevin

-
$6.50
$3.20

3
PP 3

RunninsonofagunJoel RosarioJohn T Toscano; Jr

-
-
$2.30

[COLOR=var(--gray7)]Pool Type
Runners

Payout

[/COLOR]
$1 Exa
4/2

$14.10

$0.50 Trifecta
4/2/3

$15.62

Another example
is 2nd race at Aqueduct today

I don't get this..what's 36 ?

[dollarbill]

Win + Place = 36 times show payout 2 =74 divided 4 = 50 trifecta payout Ballpark figure...

another example is Oakland 1st today

10 x's 4 dived x's 2 = 80 divided by 4 =20 actual payout 24....

[JBEX]

Win + Place = 36 times show payout 2 =74 divided 4 = 50 trifecta payout Ballpark figure...

another example is Oakland 1st today

10 x's 4 dived x's 2 = 80 divided by 4 =20 actual payout 24....

so now you're going from price × odds × odds to price ×price × price ?

[dollarbill]

Win x Place x Show equals payout

$4 win horse x $3 Place horse x $2 show horse = $24 $2 trifecta payout $12 $1 Trifecta Payout $6 50 cent payout

[JBEX]

Win x Place x Show equals payout

$4 win horse x $3 Place horse x $2 show horse = $24 $2 trifecta payout $12 $1 Trifecta Payout $6 50 cent payout

yours does seem to land around the price quite often and much easier to calculate..think there's some logic to why both work ..my one qualm would be with exacta example I gave on the 2-1's finishing top 2 ..using yours figuring a 2.80/3.20 range for place and exact $6 ,the win range is $16.80-19.20 (possibly $2.60) ..mine is $12 and the math is pretty clear imo why it should be (my above post example)..going to stay open minded about it but I agree for ease of use yours is better

[dollarbill]

Notice once not looking, just happened. The system falls with-in $10 bucks majority of time.

[Bluehorseshoe]

You will all be happy to know I just hit a 17-1 shot at Dover Downs. lol

[JBEX]

You will all be happy to know I just hit a 17-1 shot at Dover Downs. lol

congrats

[batt33]

You will all be happy to know I just hit a 17-1 shot at Dover Downs. lol

[EmpireMaker]

It paid a normal price, 7 11 and 1 2 3 tend to pay short due to numbers players. 3rd choice on top a bet 6th choice second and the favorite third, 10 horse field. Fair price.

You would know better than me. Does that seem like a super low price for that trifecta with those two horses on top??



Results (Santa Anita - R5)
Finish Pos Runner Win Place Show
1st Moment's Pleasure $12.80 $6.40 $3.80
2nd Lady Claypoole (Ire) $8.40 $4.20
3rd Word Play (Gb) $2.60
4th Shocking Grey

$1.00 Exacta 11-7 $44.40
$1.00 Trifecta 11-7-4 $176.90
$0.10 Superfecta 11-7-4-5 $47.90
$5.00 Daily Double 9-11 $197.00
$3.00 Pick 3 1-9-11 $409.80
$0.50 Pick 4 4 OF 4 1-1-9-11 $160.15
$0.50 Pick 5 5 OF 5 2,4,14-1-1-9-11 $883.50

[Bluehorseshoe]

The only thing I bet now is harness racing. It's winnable.