NFL survivor picks and discussion

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  • ThaWoj
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-09-10
    • 6742

    #1
    NFL survivor picks and discussion
    Hou and Wash losing was huge. Pitt helped too. Raiders can knock out a few more if they pull it off. 50% of the entries left in my pool got knocked out. 50k in the pool. Started week 5.

    This is what I'm tentatively going with remaining schedule and what my backup pick would be in ():

    13)DEN at home vs Cle (HOU at home vs jax)

    14)SF at home vs Chi (TB at home vs lv, PIT at home vs cle, NO @ nyg)

    15)BAL at nyg (AZ at home vs ne, DEN at home vs ind if not used in W13, ATL at lv)

    16)BUF at home vs ne (ATL at home vs nyg, CIN at home vs cle, IND at home vs ten, LAR at nyj, AZ at car, TB at dal)

    17)TB at home vs car pending

    18)ATL at home vs car pending

    Obv 17 and 18 can drastically change based on playoff seeding.

    Teams I've used:

    5)JAX vs ind
    6)PHI vs chi
    7)WASH vs car
    8)DET vs ten
    9)MIN vs ind
    10)LAC vs ten
    11)MIA vs lv
    12)KC @ car
  • Madison
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-16-11
    • 6366

    #2
    My partner and I are 1/5 left in 25k pool. Started with around 1300.

    As stated elsewhere I was mostly committed to MIA and KC (Fri).

    As can happen in these pools, I went out of my way to save SF, KC, and DAL and what was once a strong hand has become less so as each is now hobbling to the finish.

    BOL!!
    Comment
    • actiondan
      SBR MVP
      • 10-16-10
      • 3398

      #3
      denver seems solid this week.

      indy a frisky pick
      Comment
      • Madison
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-16-11
        • 6366

        #4
        Originally posted by actiondan
        denver seems solid this week.

        indy a frisky pick
        Was thinking DEN as possible as well, but haven't done much work yet.

        All input appreciated.
        Comment
        • ThaWoj
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-09-10
          • 6742

          #5
          I would be inclined to take houston off a loss but jax always plays them tough. Mile high is a tough place to play and denver is rolling. CLE can be weird sometimes. I'm still leaning denver but could see myself switching to houston at the last minute.
          Comment
          • Madison
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-16-11
            • 6366

            #6
            Thinking we're taking KC with only 1 other of 6 has available.
            Comment
            • Doug tushyterror
              SBR MVP
              • 07-03-12
              • 4172

              #7
              Originally posted by ThaWoj
              I would be inclined to take houston off a loss but jax always plays them tough. Mile high is a tough place to play and denver is rolling. CLE can be weird sometimes. I'm still leaning denver but could see myself switching to houston at the last minute.
              Cost myself 80k by not "switching to houston" last minute during wk 2 in my DK 50K, 1k buy-in (turned out to be 80k with the late entries. Took the "safe pick" BALT vs LVR cuz too impatient to wait for that late SNF vs CHI. Wound up going ALL IN on the HOU that night included in a parlay (after losing a shitload). Then went ALL IN on NYJ vs NE on TNF on CIN @Car the next wk. Had I just used those 3 picks in my survivor pool, I would've won it the next wk. Last 2 guys were eliminated that wk taking SEA over NYG splitting the 80k. No chance I would've taken SEA that wk. I was heavy on CHI over CAR that wk. I'd show the final results if I could find the pics. Ironically the 2 winners also had HOU, NYJ, & CIN before losing splitting with SEA.
              Comment
              • ThaWoj
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-09-10
                • 6742

                #8
                Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
                Cost myself 80k by not "switching to houston" last minute during wk 2 in my DK 50K, 1k buy-in (turned out to be 80k with the late entries. Took the "safe pick" BALT vs LVR cuz too impatient to wait for that late SNF vs CHI. Wound up going ALL IN on the HOU that night included in a parlay (after losing a shitload). Then went ALL IN on NYJ vs NE on TNF on CIN @Car the next wk. Had I just used those 3 picks in my survivor pool, I would've won it the next wk. Last 2 guys were eliminated that wk taking SEA over NYG splitting the 80k. No chance I would've taken SEA that wk. I was heavy on CHI over CAR that wk. I'd show the final results if I could find the pics. Ironically the 2 winners also had HOU, NYJ, & CIN before losing splitting with SEA.
                You like Houston or Denver if you had to make a pick this week soley focused on advancing to next week (disregard future value of saving either of them).
                Comment
                • Doug tushyterror
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-03-12
                  • 4172

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ThaWoj
                  You like Houston or Denver if you had to make a pick this week soley focused on advancing to next week (disregard future value of saving either of them).
                  Just between those 2: HOU but I don't love either pick. Jax off a bye coming off a 52-6 loss & CLE is more than capable of shutting down Nix. I don't know if you took DAL yet, but I don't see them losing to either Devito or Lock.
                  Comment
                  • ThaWoj
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-09-10
                    • 6742

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
                    Just between those 2: HOU but I don't love either pick. Jax off a bye coming off a 52-6 loss & CLE is more than capable of shutting down Nix. I don't know if you took DAL yet, but I don't see them losing to either Devito or Lock.
                    I still have dallas but they've been absolutely awful at home and the giants usually play them tough. The 2nd half of that bucs giants game devito looked good enough to compete. I took Nabers as one of my td picks for the sbr td contest. I actually like the over for the game. Fox will want the game to be exciting.
                    Comment
                    • Doug tushyterror
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-03-12
                      • 4172

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ThaWoj
                      I still have dallas but they've been absolutely awful at home and the giants usually play them tough. The 2nd half of that bucs giants game devito looked good enough to compete. I took Nabers as one of my td picks for the sbr td contest. I actually like the over for the game. Fox will want the game to be exciting.
                      Devito most likely out so despite what I said, NYG have a way better chance with Lock so good idea to avoid DAL. Seems like a trap to take GB but Tua is 0-6 when it's less than 46° (obv random temp to fill a narrative he's bad in the cold) & it's gonna be in the 20s so take that with a heaping grain of salt.
                      Comment
                      • Madison
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-16-11
                        • 6366

                        #12
                        Thai , this isn't probably something for you , but here I sit 1/6 in survivor for 25K.

                        Anyone, on hedging / splits? I know boring to most but why I'm still in the game.

                        Only have $400 invested w/25K out there. Why wouldn't you start hedging even $500 per pick and worst make $200 or so?
                        Comment
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