Homie "Early Look" Week 0 NFL Plays. LFG !!!

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  • homie1975
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-24-13
    • 15452

    #1
    Homie "Early Look" Week 0 NFL Plays. LFG !!!
    If anything is concerning please let me know why.

    active critique and discussion encouraged !!

    2024 NFL ATS Reg Season Record: 0-0

    Here we go!!!

    - EAGLES -2.5 over Packers (in Brazil on Fri night. Eagles major upgrades. Pack now have bullseye on back)

    - TITANS +4.5 @Bears. (Caleb is a beast but Levis is a budding star and catching more than FG vs a rookie QB)

    - CARDINALS +6 @Bills. (Cards ready to rebound and Bills breaking in lots of new faces. Cards may win SU!)

    - PATS +8.5 @Bengals (yes the Pats do not look good at all on paper but that is what draws me to this game)

    - BRONCOS +5.5 @Seahawks (i believe in Bo)

    - @BROWNS -2.5 vs Cowboys (Dak playing angry with no new deal but i think works against him)

    - COMMANDERS +3.5 @Buccaneers (i believe in Jayden)


    *** ADDING on 9/4: TEXANS -3 @Colts (houston is absolutely loaded this year)
  • Eddy Munny
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-13-13
    • 15768

    #2
    The NFL doesn't have a week 0
    Comment
    • ChuckyTheGoat
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 04-04-11
      • 37371

      #3
      Thx for posting, homie. Good info.

      One angle that points to one of your games:
      *TBay has an incredibly bad HFA. Bucs are something like 33% ATS in their L140 Home games.
      ...If anyone has ever attended a game there, it's not unusual to see a 50/50 split for Home/Road fans. Sometimes tilted to the road team if those fans travel well.
      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
      Comment
      • trobin31
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-09-14
        • 9853

        #4
        Fading. Just kidding. Best of luck Homie. You football knowledge especially college is astounding
        Comment
        • Mac4Lyfe
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-04-09
          • 48383

          #5
          Let’s get it Homie. Love the picks.
          Comment
          • mjsuax13
            Moderator
            • 03-14-15
            • 25095

            #6
            Good info Homie! I’ll dig in.
            Comment
            • Easy-Rider 66
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 02-14-12
              • 36109

              #7
              Levis a budding STAR? can't see it. He had like one good game last year that I can recall against HOTLANTA. REVISIT THAT sentiment 1975. thx
              Comment
              • homie1975
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-24-13
                • 15452

                #8
                Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                Levis a budding STAR? can't see it. He had like one good game last year that I can recall against HOTLANTA. REVISIT THAT sentiment 1975. thx
                RIDER i will look again.
                i do know that Levis really wants to be great and works harder than most.

                i will revisit.
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37371

                  #9
                  You're putting your picks out there and backing em with logic. How can you beat that?

                  Fwiw, I'm on the opposite side of the Buff/Ariz game. Re: your point on the Bill personnel turnover, I think the markets have picked up on that. I'm not convinced the line-move is justified. I listened to two Josh Allen interviews from pre-season, he seems very relaxed. Hey, that's why they play the games.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • DrunkHorseplayer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 05-15-10
                    • 7719

                    #10
                    I'm with you on Philadelphia; tough to figure the Brazil factor but I'm not sold on Love or the Pack.
                    Comment
                    • Headsterx
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-03-16
                      • 23009

                      #11
                      Originally posted by trobin31
                      Fading. Just kidding. Best of luck Homie. You football knowledge especially college is astounding
                      All 7 games are primed for the fade. 🤣
                      Comment
                      • homie1975
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-24-13
                        • 15452

                        #12
                        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                        You're putting your picks out there and backing em with logic. How can you beat that?

                        Fwiw, I'm on the opposite side of the Buff/Ariz game. Re: your point on the Bill personnel turnover, I think the markets have picked up on that. I'm not convinced the line-move is justified. I listened to two Josh Allen interviews from pre-season, he seems very relaxed. Hey, that's why they play the games.
                        Thanks CHUCKer
                        for others who happen to read my very brief reasoning, please note there is obviously much more than just what i have shared, on what i like about a particular pick, but it is simply too much to type out as time is of the essence. so i just shared the a little tidbit for each one.
                        Comment
                        • homie1975
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-24-13
                          • 15452

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Headsterx
                          All 7 games are primed for the fade. 藍
                          yup
                          Comment
                          • Easy-Rider 66
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 02-14-12
                            • 36109

                            #14
                            Originally posted by homie1975
                            RIDER i will look again.
                            i do know that Levis really wants to be great and works harder than most.

                            i will revisit.
                            thx 1975. look forward to your thoughts. on Levis.
                            Comment
                            • trobin31
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-09-14
                              • 9853

                              #15
                              Only thing budding on Wil Levis are his biceps
                              Comment
                              • JAKEPEAVY21
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-11-11
                                • 29298

                                #16
                                I never liked Levis in college but he fared better than expected last year. The Titans added beef to the oline, Ridley, Pollard and a few others. I expect Levis continue to improve with a better offensive cast around him.
                                Comment
                                • Optional
                                  Administrator
                                  • 06-10-10
                                  • 61530

                                  #17
                                  Massive ginger unit who eats unpeeled bananas and drinks coffee with mayonnaise.

                                  There is a weapon. (or an animal)


                                  .
                                  Comment
                                  • k13
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-16-10
                                    • 18104

                                    #18
                                    Never seen so many public road dogs in one week in my life.
                                    Comment
                                    • 2Sweeet
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-31-22
                                      • 1232

                                      #19
                                      Someone get this guy some help LOL week 0. Is this guy foreign?
                                      Comment
                                      • homie1975
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-24-13
                                        • 15452

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by k13
                                        Never seen so many public road dogs in one week in my life.
                                        most of the road dogs on my list are getting much lower than 50% of the wagers.
                                        Comment
                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-04-11
                                          • 37371

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by k13
                                          Never seen so many public road dogs in one week in my life.
                                          I saw this. I actually question the Public wager %s being reported.

                                          If you believe those stats, it's like everyone is clinging to the points. Some of these Favs are priced too short.
                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                          Comment
                                          • astrobloke
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-17-10
                                            • 1928

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                            I saw this. I actually question the Public wager %s being reported.

                                            If you believe those stats, it's like everyone is clinging to the points. Some of these Favs are priced too short.
                                            its hard to believe that % wager$ now a days. It's all junk. Some very talented cappers in here to help. Including yourself
                                            Comment
                                            • pilebuck13
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 05-15-15
                                              • 17918

                                              #23
                                              Anyone who states less then 50 % of the Wagers and types that in real life has no idea what they are even saying and should be immediately disqualified as speaking about sports betting in any serious forum or discussion. Nobody knows the holds none of the information is accurate. Even if you actually knew it would not mean anything. Steam does not even matter, who’s driving the steam matters. don’t think you will be privileged to that info.
                                              Comment
                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 04-04-11
                                                • 37371

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by astrobloke
                                                its hard to believe that % wager$ now a days. It's all junk. Some very talented cappers in here to help. Including yourself
                                                Astro, that's what I think. I used to see some good sites for Public%.

                                                Now, so many of them are Pay-sites. As if they're selling Liquid Gold. GTFOH, lol.
                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                Comment
                                                • astrobloke
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-17-10
                                                  • 1928

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                  Astro, that's what I think. I used to see some good sites for Public%.

                                                  Now, so many of them are Pay-sites. As if they're selling Liquid Gold. GTFOH, lol.
                                                  Yes friend, even https://www.scoresandodds.com and other sites like https://www.thespread.com/

                                                  I dont trust these any more, they use to be ok, and then like you say PAY US, and you get the goods.

                                                  LOL.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pilebuck13
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-15-15
                                                    • 17918

                                                    #26
                                                    If you’re trying to gauge a general consensus just ask guys at work. These percentages are ridiculous, reason why you can bet such huge limits on NFL go try and put 100k down on a college basketball game at a casino… good luck with that. Reason for this.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • homie1975
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 12-24-13
                                                      • 15452

                                                      #27
                                                      *** ADDING on 9/4: TEXANS -3 @Colts (houston is absolutely loaded this year)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • homie1975
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-24-13
                                                        • 15452

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                                        If anything is concerning please let me know why.

                                                        active critique and discussion encouraged !!

                                                        2024 NFL ATS Reg Season Record: 0-0

                                                        Here we go!!!

                                                        - EAGLES -2.5 over Packers (in Brazil on Fri night. Eagles major upgrades. Pack now have bullseye on back)

                                                        - TITANS +4.5 @Bears. (Caleb is a beast but Levis is a budding star and catching more than FG vs a rookie QB)

                                                        - CARDINALS +6 @Bills. (Cards ready to rebound and Bills breaking in lots of new faces. Cards may win SU!)

                                                        - PATS +8.5 @Bengals (yes the Pats do not look good at all on paper but that is what draws me to this game)

                                                        - BRONCOS +5.5 @Seahawks (i believe in Bo)

                                                        - @BROWNS -2.5 vs Cowboys (Dak playing angry with no new deal but i think works against him)

                                                        - COMMANDERS +3.5 @Buccaneers (i believe in Jayden)


                                                        *** ADDING on 9/4: TEXANS -3 @Colts (houston is absolutely loaded this year)
                                                        EAGLES Winner.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • astrobloke
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-17-10
                                                          • 1928

                                                          #29
                                                          Nice work friend.

                                                          Do you do NCAAF or just NFL ?

                                                          I like the army team. NCAAF
                                                          Comment
                                                          • k13
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-16-10
                                                            • 18104

                                                            #30
                                                            So far so good in fading public road dogs.
                                                            It's the hight percentage angle.
                                                            It never losses long term.

                                                            They don't happen that often in NFL
                                                            Comment
                                                            • homie1975
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 12-24-13
                                                              • 15452

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by astrobloke
                                                              Nice work friend.

                                                              Do you do NCAAF or just NFL ?

                                                              I like the army team. NCAAF
                                                              sticking with NFL only this season.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • homie1975
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 12-24-13
                                                                • 15452

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by k13
                                                                So far so good in fading public road dogs.
                                                                It's the hight percentage angle.
                                                                It never losses long term.

                                                                They don't happen that often in NFL
                                                                i prefer to cap them and go on a case by case basis rather than a blanket trend.

                                                                i have liked AZ + and TENN + from the get go.

                                                                both teams are extremely live Road Dogs today.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • homie1975
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                                  • 15452

                                                                  #33
                                                                  way too early look just halfway through the morning games

                                                                  AZ covering by 23

                                                                  TENN covering by 21

                                                                  NE covering by 15

                                                                  HOU barely covering
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • trobin31
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-09-14
                                                                    • 9853

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Homey don’t play dat !!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • homie1975
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 12-24-13
                                                                      • 15452

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by trobin31
                                                                      Homey don’t play dat !!
                                                                      i forgot they play second halves !

                                                                      BILLS now covering
                                                                      Comment
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