Need France to win Euros for 9 team parlay.. hedge ?

[A.M.S.]

Have a 9 team parlay going.
First 8 are winners and last leg is France to win the Euros...
$35 to win $8345

Trying to figure out what to do for my hedge possibilities...
Any input is appreciated 👍

[A.M.S.]

Jus glad Spain is playing Germany...

[Sawyer]

Hedge.

Hedge with the Winner of Spain-Germany game.

[A.M.S.]

Prob get terrible line after that game is played.. ��

[Headsterx]

It's too early to hedge as we're still in Round of 16. Let it ride unti hopefully France makes it in the finals and then hedge. Good luck as I picked France to win it all, too. But then again, I had them to win World Cup.

[Optional]

Have a 9 team parlay going.
First 8 are winners and last leg is France to win the Euros...
$35 to win $8345

Trying to figure out what to do for my hedge possibilities...
Any input is appreciated 

If you have 3k available, $1000 each on England, Spain and Germany right now will give you around $5000 payout if any of those three or France win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you have 3k available, $1000 each on England, Spain and Germany right now will give you around $5000 payout if any of those three or France win.

Opti = sharp as a tack.

[Ian]

Hedging destroys your EV.

IMO if you can't handle the sweat of a longshot winning then there's no point in betting the longshot in the first place.

[ninjagorn]

It depends on how much you would like to win and what the odds are.

The sure win is that you bet on Portugal to qualify, then the SF and the final. Its a math thing. They will be slight underdogs in SF and about even in final.

[ninjagorn]

If you have 3k available, $1000 each on England, Spain and Germany right now will give you around $5000 payout if any of those three or France win.

IMO, that makes no sense, one of Spain or Germany will not make it to SF, and why bet the other half of the draw?

[Optional]

IMO, that makes no sense, one of Spain or Germany will not make it to SF, and why bet the other half of the draw?

He asked how is best way to hedge right now.

I would not be doing it yet over a $35 stake. But I think that is best way right now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

He asked how is best way to hedge right now.

I would not be doing it yet over a $35 stake. But I think that is best way right now.

Ya, there's nothing wrong with turning some of your EV into real cash.

Is it life-changing $$? Arguably NO. But it's a chunk.

I'm in the camp that it's OK to lock in some profit. Make it an amount where you're going to feel good about your position.

I have seen this on the Final Table of a poker tournament. Normally players have a terrible view of Chopping:
1) Most guys are scared to death of Risk.
2) The chip-stacks are never even. The last-place guy wants an even share.

The only sensible way of doing it is to pull a small amount of $$ so that the Risk is reduced. That's reasonable. But you normally want to play it out if you believe in your skill.

[asiagambler]

IMO, that makes no sense, one of Spain or Germany will not make it to SF, and why bet the other half of the draw?

I don't get it either. Makes absolutely no sense to bet Spain and Germany

[Optional]

I don't get it either. Makes absolutely no sense to bet Spain and Germany

I think the question must not make any sense to you either.

He needs to cover both those teams is obviously why that has to be done if eh hedges right now.

Can you come up with a better answer, as it stands right now?

I can't think of a better option.

[Covering the #]

Are they offering any sort of early cashout? I'm no help for soccer

[unde0087]

Hedging is the best play. France has zero offense, they will not last much longer. I like Opti's plan.

[A.M.S.]

no early cash out avail..

[ChuckyTheGoat]

no early cash out avail..

On top of what I wrote above, I can give a few words of advice. Just my opinion, do with it what you please.

1) I agree with the General consensus. You normally don't want to hedge too much. There's always an expense attached to Hedging.

2) Small hedge to lock up some profit would be OK. But FRA is only @ the Qtr-Final stage. Not like there's only one game left.

3) Options to hedge:
*FRA to NOT make the Finals is available @Odds of -275. Could put in a small bet to at least break-even.

*FRA is on the TOP-half of the bracket. Consensus is that's the tougher half. Four tough teams up there.
...The next game vs Portugal will not be easy. And the Semi-Final would be vs the SPA/Germ winner.
...Bottom half doesn't look as daunting. So, the next two games may be the toughest challenges.

*If you want two teams to offset FRA, could look @SPA 4/1 and PORT 8.5/1.
...That still leaves the prospect of another team winning. So, it's not a pure hedge.
...If you look around for prices, I think you could find Field -500 (vs FRA) to win the title. That would be a pure hedge. But again, it's not a cheap price.

Good Luck (w/ whatever you do). Will be rooting for you.

[A.M.S.]

thanks chucky ... I didn't even think about a field bet . I'ma look into it ...

years ago I had a monster parlay had 19 winners in on a 20 game parlay that I was needing to hedge . so on that one I was already to the last game... good thing I did too.. I

[ChuckyTheGoat]

thanks chucky ... I didn't even think about a field bet . I'ma look into it ...

years ago I had a monster parlay had 19 winners in on a 20 game parlay that I was needing to hedge . so on that one I was already to the last game... good thing I did too.. I

You bet. Looks like your message cutoff.

Yeah, the Field bet would be a pure hedge. You need to find a book that offers Yes/No on the Euro futures.

-500 is not great. But you could put in something like $200 to win $40 if you wanted to feel comfortable about breaking even at a minimum.

[Headsterx]

no early cash out avail..

Good! Need to ride or die up until the final.

[ninjagorn]

You bet. Looks like your message cutoff.

Yeah, the Field bet would be a pure hedge. You need to find a book that offers Yes/No on the Euro futures.

-500 is not great. But you could put in something like $200 to win $40 if you wanted to feel comfortable about breaking even at a minimum.

I would do as follows.

Put 300 on Portugal to qualify for next round. Then put around 1200-1300 on the winner of Spain/Germany to qualify-winnigs should be at least 2000.
And if you are in the final put 3000-4000 (depends on the odds)on the opponent to win it all.I you are in the final you should make ca.2500-3000 bucks. And if you miss before that you still make some money.

Good luck!

[asiagambler]

I would do as follows.

Put 300 on Portugal to qualify for next round. Then put around 1200-1300 on the winner of Spain/Germany to qualify-winnigs should be at least 2000.
And if you are in the final put 3000-4000 (depends on the odds)on the opponent to win it all.I you are in the final you should make ca.2500-3000 bucks. And if you miss before that you still make some money.

Good luck!

Yep this is sound advice and what hedging actually is

Much better than putting yourself in a position to possibly lose 3000 euros. Yikes

[A.M.S.]

Debating on putting something on Portugal to reach the final at +400

[RM Logic]

Debating on putting something on Portugal to reach the final at +400

With the way Portugal has been playing I doubt they can beat either Germany or Spain.
I would make a small play on them against France so you win something.

[povis]

Maybe bet little bit on Portugal. Keep a eye on Germany/Spain winner good performance from either will tell you a lot especially if it's Spain because the team is well rested.

[A.M.S.]

Jus with the eye test looks like Spain should win easily....
But at -118 to advance seems kinda shady ��
If France pulls a win out it's def a surprise performance

[A.M.S.]

I took Portugal to advance as a lil hedge �� But that's out the window now..

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I took Portugal to advance as a lil hedge �� But that's out the window now..

Yeah. This PORT manager had no stones. CRonaldo was hurting the team.

PORT has produced a TON of young talent. Some of it was wasted on the bench.

He betting SPA in the next match?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SPA is a small Fav. They've looked > FRA this tournament. But SPA is arguably over-priced in this game.

[A.M.S.]

Adding Spain +200 to win champ

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding Spain +200 to win champ

Good Luck, AMS. Eng/NED on the other half of the bracket.

Spain looks good. Most pundits would say that the Champ is coming from the FRA/SPA game.