Teasers are the best way to make money in NFL

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:36 PM

Oooh there's a mistake in that query. Let's see if you can spot it

I'm not optimistic

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

You don't realize that the fact that you keep asking this tells me you can't run "simple queries" lol

I'm wasting my time with you since you think Kelly and Query are complicated words that no one knows about. I can't believe I asked you to optimize teasers. Not a chance of you getting that right. It's a little above query.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I'm wasting my time with you since think Kelly and Query are complicated words that no one knows about. I can't believe I asked you to optimize teasers.

So you can't. I know

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I'm wasting my time with you since you think Kelly and Query are complicated words that no one knows about. I can't believe I asked you to optimize teasers. Not a chance of you getting that right. It's a little above query.

You're the one that brought up Kelly because you thought it would make you look smart. You don't understand the formula, you don't understand the principle and you definitely don't know the math behind it at all. You just plug in numbers into a solver and that's your solution to everything. Just like reading an article decades ago about how many games land on 1 and 2. That's the extent of your knowledge

I never said queries were complicated, I'm pretty sure I even said it's not hard to learn in my original post. For you though it surely is

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by blankoblanco

Like everything in gambling, teasers work until they don't. I'm pretty wary of teasers in the NFL, because 7 point swings happen on a single play. Hell, you can basically have a 14 point swing on one play when a would-be TD becomes a turnover into TD for the other team. Turnovers make the game so volatile, and no other major sport really works that way. It's easy to convince yourself that a team can't possibly lose by x amount of points in the NFL but they absolutely always can.

That's what makes SDQL so valuable for teasers and really anything. You can spot trends when they happen. You can also see if the numbers agree with what you're seeing or if you're biased. Teasers are much more sophisticated today than they were for sure. Lots of things have changed in the last 10 years or so, from rules changes to strategy

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Teasers are much more sophisticated today than they were for sure. Lots of things have changed in the last 10 years or so, from rules changes to strategy

Why are they so complicated? They are very simple.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Why are they so complicated? They are very simple.

They are simple for you because you've used the exact same strategy from the 70s. Of course they're simple for you

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

They are simple for you because you've used the exact same strategy from the 70s. Of course they're simple for you

I don't go back that far but Vegas teasers are a little easier to beat. One tie equals push. All you have to do is find legs that win 72.37% of the time. Kelly, Query, Teasers aren't complicated.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I don't go back that far but Vegas teasers are a little easier to beat. One tie equals push. All you have to do is find legs that win 72.37% of the time.

I don't know much about Vegas teasers or how they work. Some places only let you pick from a card I believe so it works like teaser protection in that sense

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 06:00 PM

Easiest way no math involve. Find opening lines of 7.5 - 8.5 heavily backed by the public and tease down. If the line jumps 10 you can even come back over the top.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

I don't know much about Vegas teasers or how they work. Some places only let you pick from a card I believe so it works like teaser protection in that sense

Cards do have teaser protection. When I was going to Vegas and living part time in Vegas with a two team teaser, if one leg tied, then the bet was a push. Some places had really nice teaser odds. Books were even allowing preseason teasers. Low totals do matter there.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Easiest way no math involve. Find opening lines of 7.5 - 8.5 heavily backed by the public and tease down. If the line jumps 10 you can even come back over the top.

That's no different from getting ahead of public moves. It's not complicated

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

It's not complicated

Finally

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Finally

LOL I said what YOU DO is not complicated

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 06:18 PM

There's another thread on it but the first thing I do every week is check the public backing on pregame and Draftkings. Then I'll look for all the 7.5-8.5 that could move up. After that look at all the 1.5-2.5 that may move down. The thinking is that there will be huge closing value and may even come back straight.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 06:38 PM

With totals, years ago the key numbers were 37, 41, 44. Contrary to what AG says, even back then teasing totals going through two of those numbers wasn't profitable. And now with totals rising, it's even worse.

**pavyracer** · 10-13-23, 06:52 PM

Actual the only way to make money in NFL is to pick winners. If you pick winners at a good rate you will win.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

With totals, years ago the key numbers were 37, 41, 44. Contrary to what AG says, even back then teasing totals going through two of those numbers wasn't profitable. And now with totals rising, it's even worse.

Years ago ?

When ?

44 was only a key number in a very specific and arbitrary time period

Before 2015, the 3 key totals were 37, 41 and ___

It wasn't 44

This is how I know you get your numbers from some third hand information and you can't even verify them

Do you even know what the key numbers are since 2015 ?

Two of those numbers aren't at the top anymore

You make assumptions about everything and conclude because totals have risen that you can't tease totals

You don't have any data to look at to see for yourself that there are actually numbers you can tease

You're nowhere close to being qualified to make this kind of blanket statement

"I want to compare with my 30 year old numbers"

Funny guy

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Years ago ?

When ?

44 was only a key number in a very specific and arbitrary time period

Before 2015, the 3 key totals were 37, 41 and ___

It wasn't 44

This is how I know you get your numbers from some third hand information and you can't even verify them

Do you even know what the key numbers are since 2015 ?

Two of those numbers aren't at the top anymore

You make assumptions about everything and conclude because totals have risen that you can't tease totals

You don't have any data to look at to see for yourself that there are actually numbers you can tease

You're nowhere close to being qualified to make this kind of blanket statement

"I want to compare with my 30 year old numbers"

Funny guy

You post a lot of words without saying anything Kamala. If you don't know the answer to your trivial questions it'd take less than 10 seconds to google. Show me one subset of +ev teaser totals. The teasing down method today is the same as it was 50 years ago. These simple concepts are only complicated to you.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 08:41 PM

I'll give you until tomorrow to say something useful, then I'll show you the numbers and how to determine +ev teasers. I'll give you a day.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You post a lot of words without saying anything Kamala. If you don't know the answer to your trivial questions it'd take less than 10 seconds to google. Show me one subset of +ev teaser totals. The teasing down method today is the same as it was 50 years ago. These simple concepts are only complicated to you.

Forget the trivial questions. Tell me when 44 was one of the key numbers. This is YOUR assertion. So you tell me when it was a top key number

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I'll give you until tomorrow to say something useful, then I'll show you the numbers and how to determine +ev teasers. I'll give you a day.

As usual you've gotten embarrassed (by your own doing mind you) and you're crying and leaving. We've all seen this before

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Forget the trivial questions. Tell me when 44 was one of the key numbers. This is YOUR assertion. So you tell me when it was a top key number

Always, next.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Always, next.

Wrong

Prior to 2015, the top 3 key numbers were 37, 41 and 51

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Wrong

Prior to 2015, the top 3 key numbers were 37, 41 and 51

who said top 3, always been top 5, and you are wrong with your top 3.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

who said top 3 and you are wrong with your top 3.

No YOU are wrong. 44 is only the 3rd highest key number from the arbitrary period of 2000-2015

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

who said top 3 and you are wrong with your top 3.

"Years ago the key numbers were 37, 41, 44"

So you were listing the 1st, 2nd and 4th key numbers but leaving out the 3rd ????

That's what you're saying ???

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

who said top 3, always been top 5, and you are wrong with your top 3.

Now it's top 5 ????

You're a walking comedy

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:00 PM

It depends what years. You asked when 44 was a key number. I said it's always been top 5. Now tell us profitable teasers with totals so we can get a good laugh.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

It depends what years. You asked when 44 was a key number. I said it's always been top 5. Now tell us profitable teasers with totals so we can get a good laugh.

HAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAHHAHHAHAHAHAH HAHAHHAHAH yes you just chose to list the 1st 2nd and 4th and left out the 3rd

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

It depends what years. You asked when 44 was a key number. I said it's always been top 5. Now tell us profitable teasers with totals so we can get a good laugh.

So tell me the years

You like arbitrary numbers. Let's go 1996-2015

What's the top FIVE key numbers

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:06 PM

You ask simple questions that people can answer in 5 seconds with google. Ask me something hard that can't be googled easily or some simple query.

44 is #2 with their data.

**raiders72001** · 10-13-23, 09:07 PM

Optimizing teasers takes some work and you can't do it. You say teasing totals is profitable when it's not.

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You ask simple questions that people can answer in 5 seconds with google. Ask me something hard that can't be googled easily or some simple query.

44 is #2 with their data.

Yeah nice of you to crop the photo. Why don't you show the YEARS this data subset is from ?

What are the top 3 key numbers from 2015 season through the present

It's not #2

**asiagambler** · 10-13-23, 09:10 PM

You can't run a simple query ???

Here

season>=2015 and points + o: points