Teasers are the best way to make money in NFL

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 04:36 AM

H/A Scoring Margins

2022

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 04:47 AM

Originally posted by Orion1178

I like Jacksonville a lot Thursday. Saints offense has been very weak this year. 7.5 point spread is a ton to cover for a team with a bad offense

Teasers against teams with a bad offense are fantastic

I like Jax too but it depends on Lawrence's knee. He was limited in practice so haven't bet that yet.

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I may not play any teasers this week but here are the teams to look at if you do. Bears, Hou, Wash, Chargers, Rams. I was going to tease down Philly but passed. It's not a good leg.

All 5 teams covered if you teased although I didn't play all 5. For 5 teamer you can get +450. And Philly didn't cover.

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 05:26 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Eagles have won 2 games out of 6 by ten+.

Eagles scored 23 and 25 pts in their two 10 or more pt victories. Eagles average scoring 25.8 pts/game. Mia 37.2 pts/game although 26.7 on the road and Eagles 34 at home.

Last year Philly 28.8 @home and 30 away.

**Orion1178** · 10-18-23, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Eagles scored 23 and 25 pts in their two 10 or more pt victories. Eagles average scoring 25.8 pts/game. Mia 37.2 pts/game although 26.7 on the road and Eagles 34 at home.

Last year Philly 28.8 @home and 30 away.

Doesn't matter

You don't tease against explosive top tier teams who always have the capacity to win by 2-3 scores. Everyone thought Buffalo and Miami would be very close and it was a 28 pt loss.

You tease against teams like Vegas and Minnesota where every game is very close or against Pittsburg or new orleans

**Chiefs83** · 10-18-23, 06:26 AM

Teasers are a sucker bet. You’re better off just making straight wagers. No way am I EVER betting a teaser where I have to win EVERY game and get paid out EVEN MONEY

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by Orion1178

Doesn't matter

You don't tease against explosive top tier teams who always have the capacity to win by 2-3 scores. Everyone thought Buffalo and Miami would be very close and it was a 28 pt loss.

You tease against teams like Vegas and Minnesota where every game is very close or against Pittsburg or new orleans

You have a case teasing up. The value of the numbers between the line and 6 points added would have to be at least 22.73%. Push frequencies can differ with teams. But it absolutely makes no sense teasing down. The only thing that matters is the ML and value of the 1 teasing down 7.5-1.5. It doesn't matter if it's a low scoring team, high scoring team or team that wins by blowouts. It's incorporated in the ML.

Think of it this way. If the line is -6 and you tease down to pickem. All you need to know is the ML to win the game. If the no-vig ML is higher than -262, then it's a good leg. It means the team should win 72.37% of the time.

.7237 ^ 2 = 52.37%. Need to hit 52.38% to break even -110. Some rounding errors in there.

**Orion1178** · 10-18-23, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You have a case teasing up. But it absolutely makes no sense teasing down. The only thing that matters is the ML and value of the 1 teasing down 7.5-1.5. It doesn't matter if it's a low scoring team, high scoring team or team that wins by blowouts. It's incorporated in the ML.

Think of it this way. If the line is -6 and you tease down to pickem. All you need to know is the ML to win the game. If the no-vig ML is higher than -262, then it's a good leg. It means the team should win 72.37% of the time.

When I say tease against certain teams, I'm talking about teasing up to 7.5

I bet you, if you looked at nfl history - teasing against the bottom tier of offensive teams and taking lines from 1-3 to 7-9 wins at 85+% for each individual leg, maybe 90%

Last year the worst offenses in nfl

Denver- didn't win a single game by 10+ pts
Houston - didn't win a single game by 10+
NYJ - 3 wins all year by 10+ and couple of them they were underdog
Indy - 0 wins all year by 10+
Tennessee- 1 win all year by 10+ and they were underdog in that game

I look at the bottom tier offensive teams and certain teams that always seem to play close games (Tennessee, Minnesota, LAC)

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by Orion1178

When I say tease against certain teams, I'm talking about teasing up to 7.5

I bet you, if you looked at nfl history - teasing against the bottom tier of offensive teams and taking lines from 1-3 to 7-9 wins at 85+% for each individual leg, maybe 90%

Last year the worst offenses in nfl

Denver- didn't win a single game by 10+ pts
Houston - didn't win a single game by 10+
NYJ - 3 wins all year by 10+ and couple of them they were underdog
Indy - 0 wins all year by 10+
Tennessee- 1 win all year by 10+ and they were underdog in that game

I look at the bottom tier offensive teams and certain teams that always seem to play close games (Tennessee, Minnesota, LAC)

You make sense teasing up if you separate H/A stats. Not that I would do it in the NFL but there are pleasers where you give 6 points or more.

**Orion1178** · 10-18-23, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

You make sense teasing up if you separate H/A stats. Not that I would do it in the NFL but there are pleasers where you give 6 points or more.

Huh????

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 07:04 AM

Pleasers

6-point pleaser: (+600)
6.5-point pleaser: (+700)
7-point pleaser: (+800)

-3 becomes -9 if you like blowout teams.

**Orion1178** · 10-18-23, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Pleasers

-3 becomes -9 if you like blowout teams.

I don't lay more than 3 pts in any bet

Just my personal opinion. It drives me absolutely insane to have my team win by 3 or 4 pts and I lose money

I have had great luck with teasers, mostly going up from 1-3. To 7.5 to 9 and some going down to 2.5 or 2

**raiders72001** · 10-18-23, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by Orion1178

I don't lay more than 3 pts in any bet

Just my personal opinion. It drives me absolutely insane to have my team win by 3 or 4 pts and I lose money

I have had great luck with teasers, mostly going up from 1-3. To 7.5 to 9 and some going down to 2.5 or 2

Nice job.

**Orion1178** · 10-18-23, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Nice job.

I'd be curious if you did a long term sample size, what percent of games the bottom 10 offensive teams in nfl win by 2 scores. I'm almost certain it's 10% or less

**Foosball Champ** · 10-19-23, 04:01 PM

i have noticed that a few books namely will hill and caesars have raised their odds from -120 to -125 on 2 games 6 point NFL games. what are the best three books for these teasers.

**raiders72001** · 10-19-23, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Foosball Champ

i have noticed that a few books namely will hill and caesars have raised their odds from -120 to -125 on 2 games 6 point NFL games. what are the best three books for these teasers.

Nitrobetting -110 for 6 point teasers. Once in a while I'll play a 10 pt teaser -120 at FD.

**Foosball Champ** · 10-19-23, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Nitrobetting -110 for 6 point teasers. Once in a while I'll play a 10 pt teaser -120 at FD.

thanks.

**raiders72001** · 10-22-23, 10:38 PM

**DJK** · 10-22-23, 10:47 PM

I don't think teasers fared any good today when a lot of the dogs won SU.

It will be interesting to know what teasers OP had.

Hopefully, he didn't wager too big on Detroit or use them in any of his teasers as they would have been all losses.

**raiders72001** · 10-22-23, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I don't think teasers fared any good today when a lot of the dogs won SU.

It will be interesting to know what teasers OP had.

Hopefully, he didn't wager too big on Detroit or use them in any of his teasers as they would have been all losses.

Not sure what OP did but I was 0-1. Buf lost.

**DJK** · 10-22-23, 11:20 PM

I lost a parlay that would have paid 345.79x by 0.5 point when Arizona lost by 10.

I don't know why I didn't move it to +10.5 since it would not have affected the payout by that much.

9 PICKS PARLAY+34579

NE Patriots +7.5, CHI Bears +2.5, ATL Falcons +3, IND Colts +3.5, PIT Steelers +3.5, ARI Cardinals +9.5, KC Chiefs -5.5, DEN Broncos, PHI Eagles -3

**raiders72001** · 10-22-23, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I lost a parlay that would have paid 345.79x by 0.5 point when Arizona lost by 10.

I don't know why I didn't move it to +10.5 since it would not have affected the payout by that much.

9 PICKS PARLAY+34579

NE Patriots +7.5, CHI Bears +2.5, ATL Falcons +3, IND Colts +3.5, PIT Steelers +3.5, ARI Cardinals +9.5, KC Chiefs -5.5, DEN Broncos, PHI Eagles -3

Wow, would have been a huge hit.

**Art Vandelay** · 10-22-23, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I don't think teasers fared any good today when a lot of the dogs won SU.

It will be interesting to know what teasers OP had.

Hopefully, he didn't wager too big on Detroit or use them in any of his teasers as they would have been all losses.

Detroit "seemed" like a logical tease, until it wasn't. Every once in awhile you get one of those that wipes out a ton of plays.

**DJK** · 10-23-23, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by Art Vandelay

Detroit "seemed" like a logical tease, until it wasn't. Every once in awhile you get one of those that wipes out a ton of plays.

Yes and that's why I have a rule NEVER to use any team in more than one parlay or teaser.

No matter how great a team looks for a teaser or parlay, it could always lose. I got burned too many times that way.

**DJK** · 10-23-23, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Wow, would have been a huge hit.

Funny thing is, I just button clicked really fast picking those teams without any capping.

If I knew Metcalf wasn't playing for Seattle, then I would have picked them instead of Arizona. I just saw the replays on ESPN and it was a total fluke that Seattle won by 10. Didn't know toes counted as inbound even when the whole foot hit out of bound.

I have this rule where when someone is out then pick that team and when someone is coming back then pick against them.

As crazy as it sounds, it has worked more often than not for whatever the reason.

**raiders72001** · 10-23-23, 06:03 PM

I've only played one teaser but here are the legs to consider. Most that I've ever seen in one week.

Buf, Tenn, Giants, Car, Pitt, Minn, Saints, Bal, KC, LAC, Det.

Not positive but I think I'm 2-1 in this thread.

edit 1-1 after Chucky put up his offer but I'm not in it and I'm not going to make that many plays. Buf/Det going this week.

**raiders72001** · 11-01-23, 03:57 AM

Love Cle in a leg but don't like a second leg so passing right now this week.

**Enkhbat** · 11-01-23, 10:08 AM

I teased KC last week, so it is not exactly the best way to make money in the NFL. Also fanduel's teaser odds are awful.

**raiders72001** · 11-01-23, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

I teased KC last week, so it is not exactly the best way to make money in the NFL. Also fanduel's teaser odds are awful.

Get -110 and they are beatable. Had Buffalo and Detroit last week. Really like Cle this week. NO looks good too but I'm not quit sure what to make of Bagent for the Bears so I'm not betting that.

**raiders72001** · 11-01-23, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

I've only played one teaser but here are the legs to consider. Most that I've ever seen in one week.

Buf, Tenn, Giants, Car, Pitt, Minn, Saints, Bal, KC, LAC, Det.

Not positive but I think I'm 2-1 in this thread.

edit 1-1 after Chucky put up his offer but I'm not in it and I'm not going to make that many plays. Buf/Det going this week.

From the list above

9 legs won.
2 legs lost

Only played 1 teaser.

**Da Manster!** · 11-01-23, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Teasers are a sucker bet. You’re better off just making straight wagers. No way am I EVER betting a teaser where I have to win EVERY game and get paid out EVEN MONEY

totally false and disagree completely. I've been crushing them throughout the years and have a winning picks thread to prove it. but also a majority of the time, I'm also getting decent (+) money on my teasers and usually keep my teams at a bare minimum (usually narrow it down to 2 - 3 teams) instead of playing 7 or 8 teamers even though I've hit my fair share of those as well. that way one team doesn't wind up screwing me and also on several occasions those extra insurance points have come in real handy (i.e. the difference between winning and losing). but do you really want to know what a sucker bet is? playing a straight wager and laying any kind of juice! why? because that is how books make their money. 500 gamblers bet team A and the other 500 bet team B. House cleans up on the juice! Having said all of that, If I real strong about a side, of course I will just play it straight up and go a wee bit heavier on it.

**raiders72001** · 11-07-23, 04:12 PM

**OldBill** · 11-07-23, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Teasers are a sucker bet. You’re better off just making straight wagers. No way am I EVER betting a teaser where I have to win EVERY game and get paid out EVEN MONEY

ummmmmmm depends on how many teams you tease like maybe 4 or more pay + $$$ and odds on teasing a 3 point dog to +9 are more - like -250 but a 4 teamers will apy out $150 on a $10 bet

**budwiser** · 11-07-23, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

I teased KC last week, so it is not exactly the best way to make money in the NFL. Also fanduel's teaser odds are awful.

Exactly.

If you want to go with the math to skim off the top, you HAVE to check the odds, cause some place rip you off more than others

Of course if you're sharp, this teaser stuff is for fools

**Da Manster!** · 11-07-23, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by budwiser

Exactly.

If you want to go with the math to skim off the top, you HAVE to check the odds, cause some place rip you off more than others

Of course if you're sharp, this teaser stuff is for fools

Well considering the fact that 99% of all gamblers lose money and fail miserably (sharps and squares alike), I would say anyone that bets period is a fool regardless of what type of wager!