is it a DOG in MLB??

**bhoor** · 07-29-23, 07:39 PM

Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.

**19th Hole** · 07-29-23, 11:10 PM

MLB
Sat 7/29/23
Dogs 10---Favs 5

**OldBill** · 07-30-23, 01:44 PM

love MLB dogs because it's money line bet just that sports books use 20 - 30 cent lines too much

like - 220 fv but dog is only + 190

**OldBill** · 07-30-23, 01:54 PM

when i was betting MLB with a local huge favs he used - 1.5 runs for saying im doing you a favor i said no your robbing of dog money i want +250 for my $200 so he snaps back you get 1.5 runs and +120 grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ok so i'm getting the team who i think wins the game +1.5 runs right? OK give me that dog for $1000 whoaaaaaa he snaps you never bet that much ya know if you lose you pay me $1100 i said what? no this aint NFL buddy or nba this is ML betting i lose 1000$ if they lose by 2 runs or more right?

HE said ok u got it the DOG WON 10- 2 lol i call him up ok see ya fri budddy whooo oooo couldnt drive fast enough to ac nj casinos 1000$ cash on craps table wam wam wam buried them won $2500 more in 4 hours took dinner break at 7 pm nice juicy rib eye steak baked tater plus salad and drink with free comp ...... went back to differnt table played rest of night until about 4 am and i'm fuggin happy with $6579

**lakerboy** · 07-30-23, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.

This is 100% fact.

**stevenash** · 07-30-23, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.

You've made a lot of good points in the decade that you've been here, I know, I read most everything.
But the aforementioned quote just may be the truest words you ever uttered.

*off topic*
Don't you love it when in NCAA hoops, when an unranked home team, a two point unranked home team favorite beats a ranked visiting two point underdog team, and those empty suited talking heads over at ESPN's Sports Center tease their upcoming telecast with "the biggest upset of the month"

How exactly is a, say, a 10-5 unranked Big East Providence team, as a two point home favorite beats a say, then 12-3 14th ranked road underdog Xavier team a n upset?

**bhoor** · 07-30-23, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

You've made a lot of good points in the decade that you've been here, I know, I read most everything.
But the aforementioned quote just may be the truest words you ever uttered.

*off topic*
Don't you love it when in NCAA hoops, when an unranked home team, a two point unranked home team favorite beats a ranked visiting two point underdog team, and those empty suited talking heads over at ESPN's Sports Center tease their upcoming telecast with "the biggest upset of the month"

How exactly is a, say, a 10-5 unranked Big East Providence team, as a two point home favorite beats a say, then 12-3 14th ranked road underdog Xavier team a n upset?

You understood the game very well from the fan/analyst point of view. Even with the deep knowledge of sports, you won't get too far in sports betting because there will be too many external factors ( rigging, players, coaches, market influences etc). The bet you make would be an ideal one from your analysis point of view but market will decide differently. To beat this game, you have to find an edge that should be independent of these market forces, for example, I found gematria is the key to beat this game, at least,that's my point of view. MLB offering 160 games would be a perfect sports to exploit these market conditions using Gematria. My issues are MM and discipline. This NCAA/NFL/NHL/NBA season I'm thinking big as all of you. And I will provide my numbers end of this yr.

Cheers!

**bhoor** · 07-30-23, 10:36 PM

http://

**bhoor** · 07-30-23, 10:39 PM

[IMG][/IMG]

**veriableodds** · 07-30-23, 10:50 PM

The unbiased approach of assigning numerical value to data/words. T-A playing T-B on road (T-A) has a clear enough better record to catch your eye as a possible pick. So you check the last 10 games they have played. Unfortunately, they have only won 5 of last 10 games so personally it would be scratch, if they had won 6, that would be a different story. It would be a complete scratch game if making a case for T-B simply cause of the record differential. Then you have teams/games where the records are very close. To eliminate silliness of going crazy volume wise you want to stick with the games when dog line is at least +120, and have won at least 5 of last 10 or they would be a scratch also. Certainly, wouldn't take the other side as in paying juice for it, that's just crazy. This works well for NHL, essentially, it's the same for all sports if the spread has value.

**veriableodds** · 07-31-23, 08:15 AM

Todays card
possibles
mlw
tb
blt
laa
clv
bst
mlw is scratch.
tb is a scratch.
blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes

**Machba** · 07-31-23, 08:46 AM

[QUOTE=veriableodds;31213170]Todays card
possibles
mlw
tb
blt
laa
clv
bst
mlw is scratch.
tb is a scratch.
blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes[/QUOT
Boston will not win today

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-31-23, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

The unbiased approach of assigning numerical value to data/words. T-A playing T-B on road (T-A) has a clear enough better record to catch your eye as a possible pick. So you check the last 10 games they have played. Unfortunately, they have only won 5 of last 10 games so personally it would be scratch, if they had won 6, that would be a different story. It would be a complete scratch game if making a case for T-B simply cause of the record differential. Then you have teams/games where the records are very close. To eliminate silliness of going crazy volume wise you want to stick with the games when dog line is at least +120, and have won at least 5 of last 10 or they would be a scratch also. Certainly, wouldn't take the other side as in paying juice for it, that's just crazy. This works well for NHL, essentially, it's the same for all sports if the spread has value.

Boys...I'm telling you. This guy (Veri) is GOOD.

**stevex** · 08-03-23, 06:40 AM

Back to chalk winning 10-12 games on each card, daily.

**JohnGalt2341** · 08-03-23, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date

straight up dogs home/or/away
41.8% win rate

Against The Spread Trends (ATS) home/or/away

57.5%

Any idea on what the average Line/Price is on these?

**stevenash** · 08-03-23, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Back to chalk winning 10-12 games on each card, daily.

When you consider there are 2,480 MLB regular season games a year that's an insignificant sample size though.

**stevenash** · 08-03-23, 04:00 PM

*double post*

**stevex** · 08-03-23, 05:24 PM

Chalk 4-1 already today (normally chalk owns day games). Here we go with another day of dogs maybe winning a game.

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 08:39 AM

looking at today's card breakdown
favorites
atl, cnn, blt, mlw, lad
DQ'd from this list cnn, mlw, lad so plays are atl, blt

close record dogs with above/+115 payout
nyy, cws, tor, mia, az, cld
DQ'd from list cws, az, cld plays are nyy, tor, mia thats 5 total w/3 dogs
models that are showing total value
hou/nyy shows 9.62-vs-9 line
nym/blt shows 9.89-vs-9 line

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 08:41 AM

MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date

straight up dog home/away 41.7%
ats dog home/away 57%

**bhoor** · 08-04-23, 10:07 AM

Gematria says Rockies today

**JohnGalt2341** · 08-04-23, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by bhoor

Gematria says Rockies today

Is this for real? If so, how do you calculate who is going to win using gematria?

**stevex** · 08-04-23, 02:45 PM

AND it begins with the Cubs. Just bet chalk in MLB all season to make money.

**texhooper** · 08-04-23, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date

straight up dog home/away 41.7%
ats dog home/away 57%

Do you have unit tallies for each of these by chance? 41.7% sounds profitable straight up but 57% on +1.5 does not

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by stevex

AND it begins with the Cubs. Just bet chalk in MLB all season to make money.

post #20 ATL was a play today/chalk

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

Gematria says Rockies today

I see your point on this one(not much to be said for STL), but Colorado has only won 3 of the last 10. I also watched the line go from +160 to over +180

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Todays card
possibles
mlw
tb
blt
laa
clv
bst
mlw is scratch.
tb is a scratch.
blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes

winning only 2 of these but still made +1u if 1u was wagered each play

**bhoor** · 08-04-23, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

Is this for real? If so, how do you calculate who is going to win using gematria?

Some combinations with #s and its team names

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

Do you have unit tallies for each of these by chance? 41.7% sounds profitable straight up but 57% on +1.5 does not

No I hate runlines, however if you can get +1 runs instead of +1.5(alt lines) it appears it should be profitable. How far will that drop the 57% I dont know.
Percentage of One-Run MLB Games From 2004-2014

7,824 Games Out of 27,080 Games
28.89% Decided By One Run

**veriableodds** · 08-04-23, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

looking at today's card breakdown
favorites
atl, cnn, blt, mlw, lad
DQ'd from this list cnn, mlw, lad so plays are atl, blt

close record dogs with above/+115 payout
nyy, cws, tor, mia, az, cld
DQ'd from list cws, az, cld plays are nyy, tor, mia thats 5 total w/3 dogs
models that are showing total value
hou/nyy shows 9.62-vs-9 line
nym/blt shows 9.89-vs-9 line

5-2 with examples. That should be enough information for a good foundation of baseball theory. lol. forgot TB they were on list but opposite of the side I check dont know if they would of been a play but they won..

**veriableodds** · 08-05-23, 08:48 AM

only 1 game for me today
sfg/oak/ov-7.5
model shows 9.28runs

**Machba** · 08-05-23, 08:50 AM

Get on the nats today
They win easily again

**bhoor** · 08-05-23, 10:19 AM

Gematria says Chicago Cubs today along with many others.

**JohnGalt2341** · 08-05-23, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by bhoor

Some combinations with #s and its team names

Yeah, but how do you read it?

Originally posted by bhoor

Gematria says Chicago Cubs today along with many others.

Are you getting this from a website or your own calculation? OR are you just trolling? Gematria intrigues me but I've never tried applying it to Sportsbetting. I'm just curious as to how people attempt to go about it.