Yankees are just unconscious

[EGrecu]

Continuing to milk them

They may win 110 games this year

[jjgold]

Yep

Great pitching

[EGrecu]

Yep

Great pitching

Great everything

[agendaman]

yes indeed.the record for most wins is 116 i believe by seattle.

[mikmik]

Hoping tigers score early , and live bet yanks

[lakerboy]

About time

[EGrecu]

Brisket for tigers has given up 10 homeruns in only 36 innings

What a great recipe for yankee blowout. Stanton is back today too. Watch Yankees hit 4 5 homeruns today

[pavyracer]

Books are getting destroyed by people betting on the Yankees this week. They never learn.

[goduke]

About time

For now though. They’ll have a slide somewhere in the season that will absolutely destroy the public.
I remember the dodgers a few years back were killing it first half of the year, winning everything and making great comeback wins then late in the season they had multiple long losing streaks

[stevenash]

For now though. They’ll have a slide somewhere in the season that will absolutely destroy the public.
I remember the dodgers a few years back were killing it first half of the year, winning everything and making great comeback wins then late in the season they had multiple long losing streaks

Yep.
1984 Tigers start 35 and 5 (141 win pace after first 40 games)
Wind up the last 122 games 69-53 (Most of those 53 losses were heavily juiced)

Won 104 games, not even close to the 141 pace.

Dodgers were 106-56 last season.
Won almost twice as many games as they lost.

If you bet 100 dollars flat (money line) on each of the 162 games last year, you wound up still losing money.

Dodgers won 50 games more than they lost, how could you possibly lose money?

Easy, the 56 games they lost the average price of those losses was LA favored -219

Now take 219 multiply that by 56, then deduct 10,600 (100 dollars x 106 wins) and tell me what you have?

[jjgold]

Pitching wins
Don’t get me wrong judges really doing well but the Yankees got a very underrated pitching staff

[Snowball]

same here, moo.

[Otters27]

Try tigers live

[Bostongambler]

Another Yanks victory in the books.

[mcaulay777]

Yes and i have Yankees under and Tigers over as 2 of 4 of my offseason plays. Wow what a dope i am!

[EGrecu]

For now though. They’ll have a slide somewhere in the season that will absolutely destroy the public.
I remember the dodgers a few years back were killing it first half of the year, winning everything and making great comeback wins then late in the season they had multiple long losing streaks

Correct


You have to learn when to jump off the bandwagon

[EGrecu]

Yep.
1984 Tigers start 35 and 5 (141 win pace after first 40 games)
Wind up the last 122 games 69-53 (Most of those 53 losses were heavily juiced)

Won 104 games, not even close to the 141 pace.

Dodgers were 106-56 last season.
Won almost twice as many games as they lost.

If you bet 100 dollars flat (money line) on each of the 162 games last year, you wound up still losing money.

Dodgers won 50 games more than they lost, how could you possibly lose money?

Easy, the 56 games they lost the average price of those losses was LA favored -219

Now take 219 multiply that by 56, then deduct 10,600 (100 dollars x 106 wins) and tell me what you have?

You're correct

You have to know when to jump off the lines and pick and choose

Also ML plays are stupid. Gotta play the run line for any semblance of value

Right now. Vegas is giving the Yankees very reasonable lines. Cortes, who is the best pitcher in the AL, was a +175 on the 1.5 RL. That's just absurd value when you consider how good the Yankees are. At some point, the value will be gone and yankees will be -300 every game and then they're unplayable

[pavyracer]

The lines for Yankees have been soft and easily exploited by the savvy bettors all year. The books are bleeding .

[KVB]

....Also ML plays are stupid. Gotta play the run line for any semblance of value...

Why would you say this?

[JacketFan81]

Why would you say this?

I was gonna ask the exact same question

[stevenash]

I was gonna ask the exact same question

Ditto

[pavyracer]

When a team is hot you ride it for a while. It's one of the golden rules of betting. Attack attack attack!

[icon]

Don’t get me wrong

Nobody here gets you wrong pal, we know.

[EGrecu]

Why would you say this?

When the ML is -340 and the RL is -140. How is there any value in a 340 ML?? You're not gonna make any money long term in baseball on -250+ MLs. Even the best teams and best aces don't win scenarios at a 75-80% clip

The Yankees don't win many games by 1 run anyways. 29 of their 38 wins are by 2+ runs


You need to play RLs and hope to win around a 55-60% clip. Right now, many of their RLs are very reasonable

[pavyracer]

When the ML is -340 and the RL is -140. How is there any value in a 340 ML?? You're not gonna make any money long term in baseball on -250+ MLs. Even the best teams and best aces don't win scenarios at a 75-80% clip

The Yankees don't win many games by 1 run anyways. 29 of their 38 wins are by 2+ runs


You need to play RLs and hope to win around a 55-60% clip. Right now, many of their RLs are very reasonable

[stevenash]

When the ML is -340 and the RL is -140. How is there any value in a 340 ML?? You're not gonna make any money long term in baseball on -250+ MLs. Even the best teams and best aces don't win scenarios at a 75-80% clip

The Yankees don't win many games by 1 run anyways. 29 of their 38 wins are by 2+ runs


You need to play RLs and hope to win around a 55-60% clip. Right now, many of their RLs are very reasonable

You'll never get -140 run line on a -340 money line baseball favorite.
More like -190
Never. As in ever.

I've been doing baseball forever, it's my passion.
When you see a -340 in MLB it's rare.

-340 is Pedro at home in his prime vs. Baltimore.
-340 is Greg Maddux at home in his prime vs, expansion Miami

You only get -340 when a generation's elite pitcher goes against a shit poor team, or a generation's elite ball club vs. an expansion type club.

You'll be hard pressed to find two money line games over 3:1 odds a MLB season out of 2340 regular season games.
And if you do find a -340 game, the run line is usually -190 (give or take)

Going back to my Pedro in his prime vs. Baltimore example.
I remember clearly such a Red Sox game, it was Martinez vs. floundering Orioles.

The betting line was, and I remember clearly, Red Sox -350, -1.5 runs -210, -2.5 runs -110

Reason why I remember it clearly is because I said to my Red Sox girl friend at the time, now my wife, "this is insane, the Sox have to win by three or more runs just to break barely even.

(before you ask, Sox won 6-1)

Now I don't dismiss laying -190, but only these two conditions.
I'll bet -190 on the run line and move it to say -110 if my starter is an ace against a mediocre team ONLY on the road.

Why the road?
Because the road team is ALWAYS guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
The home team is not always guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.

Example:
If you bet the run line on a home team, and the score is 4-3 in favor of the aforementioned home team at the end of the top of the ninth.
Game over, your team wins, your run line loses, you don't get your ninth inning at bat, your team doesn't need it, and it sucks to be you.

Same scenario, 4-3 you have the run line, difference is you're team is the road team.
4-3, end of eight innings, you're team is winning.
This time you are guaranteed the ninth inning at bat, and in the top of the ninth, you get two runs on a two run tater, your closer saves the bottom of the ninth, your team wins, you cover the run line 6-3, and it doesn't suck to be you.

The other condition I would consider betting a -190 favorite is with another similar chalk favorite on a two team money line parlay.
(money line, not run line)
Reason being, even though you need both teams to win your parlay bet, betting them on the parlay actually digs into the book vig if you bet the two chalks as stand alone individual wagers.

Please don't ask me to prove out the math, as it's time consuming, and I have proven out the math several times here already.

[EGrecu]

You'll never get -140 run line on a -340 money line baseball favorite.
More like -190
Never. As in ever.

I've been doing baseball forever, it's my passion.
When you see a -340 in MLB it's rare.

-340 is Pedro at home in his prime vs. Baltimore.
-340 is Greg Maddux at home in his prime vs, expansion Miami

You only get -340 when a generation's elite pitcher goes against a shit poor team, or a generation's elite ball club vs. an expansion type club.

You'll be hard pressed to find two money line games over 3:1 odds a MLB season out of 2340 regular season games.
And if you do find a -340 game, the run line is usually -190 (give or take)

Going back to my Pedro in his prime vs. Baltimore example.
I remember clearly such a Red Sox game, it was Martinez vs. floundering Orioles.

The betting line was, and I remember clearly, Red Sox -350, -1.5 runs -210, -2.5 runs -110

Reason why I remember it clearly is because I said to my Red Sox girl friend at the time, now my wife, "this is insane, the Sox have to win by three or more runs just to break barely even.

(before you ask, Sox won 6-1)

Now I don't dismiss laying -190, but only these two conditions.
I'll bet -190 on the run line and move it to say -110 if my starter is an ace against a mediocre team ONLY on the road.

Why the road?
Because the road team is ALWAYS guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
The home team is not always guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.

Example:
If you bet the run line on a home team, and the score is 4-3 in favor of the aforementioned home team at the end of the top of the ninth.
Game over, your team wins, your run line loses, you don't get your ninth inning at bat, your team doesn't need it, and it sucks to be you.

Same scenario, 4-3 you have the run line, difference is you're team is the road team.
4-3, end of eight innings, you're team is winning.
This time you are guaranteed the ninth inning at bat, and in the top of the ninth, you get two runs on a two run tater, your closer saves the bottom of the ninth, your team wins, you cover the run line 6-3, and it doesn't suck to be you.

The other condition I would consider betting a -190 favorite is with another similar chalk favorite on a two team money line parlay.
(money line, not run line)
Reason being, even though you need both teams to win your parlay bet, betting them on the parlay actually digs into the book vig if you bet the two chalks as stand alone individual wagers.

Please don't ask me to prove out the math, as it's time consuming, and I have proven out the math several times here already.

The yanks were around -300 last 2 games vs tigers and RL was around -130 to 160

[KVB]

When the ML is -340 and the RL is -140. How is there any value in a 340 ML?? You're not gonna make any money long term in baseball on -250+ MLs. Even the best teams and best aces don't win scenarios at a 75-80% clip

The Yankees don't win many games by 1 run anyways. 29 of their 38 wins are by 2+ runs


You need to play RLs and hope to win around a 55-60% clip. Right now, many of their RLs are very reasonable

You do realize that moneyline bettors are the one's profiting here, not the runline bettors, right?

It's the runline that has lacked value.

But I can see you're not really trying to assess value, you are just guessing.

There's only been 3 games over -300.

You should rethink yourself when posters like pavyracer are nominating you, he's the epitome of gambling ignorance.

[pavyracer]

The Yankees opened as -130 and closed as -175 on the RL today. ElGrecu is not lying.


A huge amount of money moved the line and books were hapless to do anything.

These are the games the books give up and start counting their losses as soon as the game ends.

[KVB]

This becomes another classic example of a public team like the Yankees doing well and the public bettor not caring what price he pays to get them. He gets overzealous.

But in this case the bettor tells himself an arbitrary moneyline price is arbitrarily too much and is willing to just take the run line at any price, because it has “value” presumably because it’s just cheaper.

This can be a conversion problem, though it’s a little trickier than traditional conversions.

But our bettor here is not converting, he’s guessing.

That’s ok, for many they are more comfortable with certain bets, even if they convert poorly or not at all. But over time he will lose faster without considering the ml, Total, and RL in capping.

Broad assumptions about prices and runlines can be costly.

I’ll offer this...When a team is heating up, especially a constant favorite, but the market is behind, we often see the run line run out of value before the moneyline.

Funny enough, one reason for this is this very thread. Bettors sell out in the face of a rising moneyline and jump to the runline, not considering the prices there.

And price is everything.

[EGrecu]

This becomes another classic example of a public team like the Yankees doing well and the public bettor not caring what price he pays to get them. He gets overzealous.

But in this case the bettor tells himself an arbitrary moneyline price is arbitrarily too much and is willing to just take the run line at any price, because it has “value” presumably because it’s just cheaper.

This can be a conversion problem, though it’s a little trickier than traditional conversions.

But our bettor here is not converting, he’s guessing.

That’s ok, for many they are more comfortable with certain bets, even if they convert poorly or not at all. But over time he will lose faster without considering the ml, Total, and RL in capping.

Broad assumptions about prices and runlines can be costly.

I’ll offer this...When a team is heating up, especially a constant favorite, but the market is behind, we often see the run line run out of value before the moneyline.

Funny enough, one reason for this is this very thread. Bettors sell out in the face of a rising moneyline and jump to the runline, not considering the prices there.

And price is everything.

just a heads up - if you just blindly bet the yankees RL this year. You would have won 54-55% of your bets. I guarantee you that would have been tremendously profitable. They've had games against teams like ohtani a few days ago where it was +175 lines.


the point is you have to pick and choose your spots while the going is good. The yankees are red red hot right now. At some point, they will cool off and then you have to jump off the bandwagon. A lot of sports betting is recognizing the run early on and then knowing when to get off



as far as the runline vs moneyline conversation goes - some of that is based on situation, some of that is based on the team itself, pitching matchup, etc... I personally think it's asinine to bet a 300 ML instead of a 140ish RL when it's a team like the yankees that have about 80% chance of winning by 2+ runs, assuming they win at all. The payout difference is so huge. It's very hard to make a living long term playing 250-350 favorites of any kind


some teams in baseball don't blow teams out, they tend to win a lot of close games. The yankees are not that team so why would I play their MLs? Yankees either typically win by 3-10 runs or they lose

[slayer14]

They will win 95 games it always a cold faze

[goduke]

Do they complete the sweep today or shit in everyone’s mouth?

[GT21Megatron]

I’m on Tigers +1.5 today

[Kermit]

The yanks were around -300 last 2 games vs tigers and RL was around -130 to 160

True. They are -315 today and the runline is -139