KVB's Knowing Your Markets

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-26-22, 04:18 PM

This is alot of info for rhubes on SBR

I'd think most will try to understand but inevitably will look to tail my plays for big money

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 04-26-22, 04:20 PM

Gonna have to watch this later after I get back home.

**jjgold** · 04-26-22, 05:29 PM

It’s all random

So easy to sum it up

**Brock Landers** · 04-26-22, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

It’s all random

So easy to sum it up

LOL

Watch the video

He destroys you multiple times

Solid vid as always Pal

**BeatTheJerk** · 04-26-22, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

LOL

Watch the video

He destroys you multiple times

Solid vid as always Pal

It’s too late for him, plus his bankroll is trash.

**jjgold** · 04-26-22, 08:42 PM

I am on road no time right now

Might fit it in tomorrow

**thetrinity** · 04-26-22, 09:16 PM

Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didn’t earn

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-26-22, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didn’t earn

Oh oh oh....they earn em

**Optional** · 04-27-22, 02:29 AM

Thanks KVB.

Interesting to hear your take on the very common question "what are the sharp books". I'll use some of that in future I am sure.

The early discussion about vig and hold was good too.

I think you should get yourself a new microphone though. Struggled to understand you quite a few times.

**StackinGreen** · 04-27-22, 08:54 AM

My guy KVB taking people to school.

**Brock Landers** · 04-27-22, 08:59 AM

KVB, why did pinnacle pull their lines from all services? What's your theory anyway

**Waterstpub87** · 04-27-22, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

KVB, why did pinnacle pull their lines from all services? What's your theory anyway

I believe they are starting a business to sell it. I inquired awhile ago about API, and they said "stopping this, starting pinnacle services". Unconfirmed if this is true, but its what they said.

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 12:22 PM

As far as I know it's about contract negotiations.

But I do know where the public, for free, can get a Pinny line.

It was the former home of lowercase KVB.

They must have negotiated something or are taking it from another service.

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

I believe they are starting a business to sell it. I inquired awhile ago about API, and they said "stopping this, starting pinnacle services". Unconfirmed if this is true, but its what they said.

Maybe these are the new contracts, I'm not sure.

Good intro with python, help take this place up a notch.

**Waterstpub87** · 04-27-22, 12:28 PM

KVB, excellent video as always. I echo the advise you need a better microphone. I have to pull it up on the Roku and crank the volume, rather than trying to watch on computer.

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 12:32 PM

Appreciate the feedback, I really noticed it in the part where I say a book may have already dealt with someone and I'm saying to find a way back in...lol.

It's part of the game. Get kicked out, find a way back in. This how betting organizations operate, not to mention motivated individuals.

Thanks again for the feedback, a lot of hands to the face, low talking voice too, I'll get it worked out.

I'm looking forward to making more.

**RangeFinder** · 04-27-22, 01:01 PM

When does the chart school for stocks start?

I'm sure you have a few takes on those

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 01:31 PM

One of things I want to emphasize here, something that helps anyone no matter your level.

It's that difference between what we calculate to be what the market or book is showing, by opinion of course, to be the no-vig line and what a potentially more accurate no-vig line is based on what led the market.

Know your markets.

Calculate the no vig line at close, assess the movement and where and when it happened, and see how things unfold as you watch them.

Track your bets and why you made them. I think this statement that I often repeat is not fully understood by most. That's because there is so much to it. When we're using correlations, we're tracking our bets and why we're making them.

When we're watching and sports and drinking beers, make a note why you made a bet. Was it the QBs? Maybe you make ratings too, even if you don't have hard evidence of correlation?

Maybe you just wanted to have action to watch.

Whatever the reason, track it. This separates your bets, your strategies. Remember, it's not our information, it's how use that information.

When you track your bets you create a body of information that nobody else has. Can you find ways to use it?

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

Kvb looks like one of those college professors who gives the skanky dumb girls As that they didn’t earn

Students will earn their grades fair and square.

It's an investigation of my TA hiring practices that might bring me down...

**d2bets** · 04-27-22, 02:18 PM

Good stuff.

I know you mentioned that you'd discuss in another video, but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification. I would generally say the opposite. I think more often when you find reduced juice vs. a half point better at -110, the -110 is going to be preferred more often than not. For example, I see right now on Denver Nuggets +8.5-105 or elsewhere +9-110. Are you taking the "better price" at +8.5-105? Or even -103? I wouldn't. I'd take the +9-110. Pretty sure you would too.

And then to play that further, if you are betting quarter, half, live, etc., that half point is going to be worth even more the shorter the market is. If you bet quarters, halves and live, you must understand this.

I know that you know this, but if I was only watching this video, I would probably have taken away the opposite.

**BeatTheJerk** · 04-27-22, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Good stuff.

I know you mentioned that you'd discuss in another video, but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification. I would generally say the opposite. I think more often when you find reduced juice vs. a half point better at -110, the -110 is going to be preferred more often than not. For example, I see right now on Denver Nuggets +8.5-105 or elsewhere +9-110. Are you taking the "better price" at +8.5-105? Or even -103? I wouldn't. I'd take the +9-110. Pretty sure you would too.

And then to play that further, if you are betting quarter, half, live, etc., that half point is going to be worth even more the shorter the market is. If you bet quarters, halves and live, you must understand this.

I know that you know this, but if I was only watching this video, I would probably have taken away the opposite.

I might be coming from a very simplistic/amateur POV, but this is just my personal approach. I find myself "selling" half a point back to the bookmaker in order to reduce my juice as a whole. I'd say roughly I do this 25% of the time, & of course I don't do it on key numbers like in the NFL 3,7,10. So my point is when I decide to place a wager, (which not in volume like you & KVB, simply because of my limited BR) I don't anticipate the game to win by one point, because winning by one point is not a good enough advantage for me as far as value. This is all psychological for me when I determine a wager. So selling back a half point to the bookmaker to reduce my vig up to 100% or more at times, but not always. I feel it's worth it regarding my approach to a wager.

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

...but the "prices are important; half point not so much" threw me a bit. Requires a whole lotta context and qualification...

You are right.

Yeah, half points are important my point was to be able to convert them all to prices.

When you know what the half point is worth in probability, you can make all decisions based on "price".

So yeah, half points are huge like you say, but with them can a be a different price. Like +7 (-105) and +7.5 (-120). I'm really just talking about conversions.

That price of a .5 points matters. I know you know it d2, but it's a great question and I think I would have asked the same. It's big part of it, do you take the extra half point, pass, does it matter?

**pilebuck13** · 04-27-22, 03:38 PM

Totals I always buy up the hook to get +odds comfy w a push due to high volume juice is enemy

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 03:40 PM

Sometimes we'll see a half point move that won't affect the "sharps" in the audience because of the price built into the offer. Often, if the "sharp" is undecided or ambivalent, the half point move with a higher price might have him in the same spot, the same exact decision.

The same price.

But to the public that half point move could mean everything and they don't care what price they pay.

**d2bets** · 04-27-22, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

I might be coming from a very simplistic/amateur POV, but this is just my personal approach. I find myself "selling" half a point back to the bookmaker in order to reduce my juice as a whole. I'd say roughly I do this 25% of the time, & of course I don't do it on key numbers like in the NFL 3,7,10. So my point is when I decide to place a wager, (which not in volume like you & KVB, simply because of my limited BR) I don't anticipate the game to win by one point, because winning by one point is not a good enough advantage for me as far as value. This is all psychological for me when I determine a wager. So selling back a half point to the bookmaker to reduce my vig up to 100% or more at times, but not always. I feel it's worth it regarding my approach to a wager.

All depends on price. I know you don't think the half point will matter, and of course it "rarely" will, but it's that 1 time in 20 that makes more of a difference than a few cents better price. You don't know when it will matter, and neither do I. Just understand what the half point is worth and take the better overall price, combined with price and spread. If you are just looking at one book in isolation and then "selling" it back, I highly doubt they are going to give you enough value to do it. Books are not that smart, but they're also not that dumb.

**gshock1** · 04-27-22, 03:42 PM

Excellent video KVB.

**d2bets** · 04-27-22, 03:50 PM

I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

That's over 35% extra profit!

**thetrinity** · 04-27-22, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Students will earn their grades fair and square.

It's an investigation of my TA hiring practices that might bring me down...

Your hiring practices look A OK with me

**jjgold** · 04-27-22, 03:57 PM

I would school this guy

I love I never have to shop
Lines and get best Number in world every bet at the time of the play vs anyone else

Toying with you guys

I am a mollybet player all you need to know

Best betting platform world with lowest juice books in world

Thank you

**BeatTheJerk** · 04-27-22, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

That's over 35% extra profit!

I don’t do it when it’s only -105. I’m doing it anywhere from -102 up to +108 at times for only half a point. These odds are available on certain games, & if that criteria matches with my bet. I’ll sell the .5 back at those odds.

**BeatTheJerk** · 04-27-22, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I think people think the vig is more important than the half point because it matters every time, right. If you win at -105, you get more back than at -110. Easy to see. Tangible.

The half point matters very rarely. But of course when it does, the difference is massive.

So let's look at that Denver +8.5-105 vs. +9-110. Tempted by the reduced juice. Thinking, I mean it's probably like 1 in 20 that it lands exactly on 9, so don't worry about it. It hardly ever happens. You're confident in your wager.

OK, so you bet that 20 times. And let's say you're right that the +8.5 is good, and you go 11-9 at that number. But one of those 9 losses would have pushed on 9. So it's 11-9 at -105 vs. 11-8-1 at -110. Which is better betting 100 per play?

11-9 at -105 = +$147.62
11-8-1- at -110 =+$200.00

That one push saving you a $100 loss was worth (a lot) more than an extra $5.24 in 11 wins.

That's over 35% extra profit!

I see your rebuttal & the math makes since to me with your example, that you don’t create an advantage selling a half point.

**d2bets** · 04-27-22, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

I see your rebuttal & the math makes since to me with your example, that you don’t create an advantage selling a half point.

Depends on the juice savings for the half point. I think some books will give you like +9-110 or let you sell to +8.5-103, that sort of thing. Generally not worthwhile IMO. In the NBA those half points are generally worth between 8 to 11 cents, give or take.

**KVB** · 04-27-22, 06:09 PM

Yep, it's all about the price.

Call it savings in juice, but it's just price. Juice or vig doesn't matter.

But I get it, sometimes we just call the price juice.

So yeah, once we convert the .5 points to a price, is easy to see which price is the best, or to see they are the same, when comparing the two spreads.

**texhooper** · 04-27-22, 07:02 PM

Hell yes I got a shoutout in a KVB video. I’m bought and paid for now, great stuff as usual bruddah!

Seriously I enjoy your videos and keep them coming

Now just need to know where to get that free pinnacle line history…I found a place called the rundown where you have to sign up with your email address and they have it, but like your video alludes to somewhat, they often show the adjusted priced point spreads instead of the actual line, and I’m not into trying to decipher what all that likely means for the real line throughout a day