-
Comment -
This is about the Suns though.
Questions linger on the TV show.
Were are the stars?
Gonna be a good ending.Comment -
It will be easy to influence the suns line now with each Suns basket.
The pressure on them is high. Extra vig is placed...very important if you are trading the Suns.
It takes patience and even then it doesn't always go the ideal way.Comment -
Books sucking in the high suns vig.
They need sunscreen.
If the Suns win, those bettors right now lost...lol. Will never survive the long haul.Comment -
So much opportinity to sell back the +400's.
Live market is basically taking Phoenix money the whole time here.
Whether it was indigenous pressure, or the traders with positions.
They even sold a shit ton with high vig.Comment -
I can selll some of my position at nearly 2-1 odds now.
Another support level. Phoenix at +200 is going to be a big trading point.
Trust me on that one.Comment -
We are inside 5 minutes and breaking through and around that `+200 level
I tried to trade at +276.
Could not get it.Comment -
I have sold some back at +326.
Tried +343, got robbed.Comment -
I think we could get our NO winner tonight.
I will be keeping a position in the original pregame buy.
If you can get down enough, you have a lot of room to work. But remember, it doesn't always work out. The advantage needs to be around in the opening odds and position, or you the long haul will get you. No matter how lucky you get.
You need those odds to be inflated at the right time.
Sports betting will do one thing to all of us, me incuded, it will make you look dumber than you are and it will make you look smarter than you are.
I think everyone can appreciate whay I'm saying there.Comment -
Lakeshow, I apologize if the thread got hijacked.
SBR, I often say I like to teach by example.
I think we did a good job here shedding light on an often underappreciated aspect of the markets.
These posts, and hopefully more video, is what I mean when I say by example.
I could write a book, but it becomes instantly stale. There are enough books.
This is my way of giving back.
Thank you for giving me the space here and I hope somebody, somewhere gets inspired to explore LIVE trading as a part of your business.
Keep track of your bets and why you made them.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
Comment -
These motherfuckers
Booker with a phantom injury tooComment -
Good stuff KVB
Needed these wins to get back on track.Comment -
Scotty F does it againComment -
this ref is in pauls head surelyComment -
that booker injury just killed them. I know they are saying tightness but when you watch the replay and look at booker's reaction it looks alot worse then a tight hamstring. I remember when they said last year leonard only had a knee strain lol. You got to watch the players, they know and booker looked like he was going to be out for awhile. This game might have changed the championship pictureComment -
Alright, sorry, I'm back.
Can't rest unless I address a few important things.
First, this was the last post I made prior to the the 5 min 1st half mark...
Remember the 1st half moneyline? Lakeshow and I had +250, there were +245s and even some +260s pre game.
Don't get greedy trading. Notice there was no chane to trade out of that line. If you get greedy, or take it for granted, the market will bitchslap you.
I mentioned they splash the pile a lot and when they do they will pinch you out of that trade.
The other thing I wanted to address was this...
This post was made at halftime.
We can debate the semantics of an ingame line, halftime line, etc all day. For this purpose, for those who want to explore the time value of the LIVE moneyline, it's not a LIVE trade. It's a halftime for full game result line. This will save you hours, lol. Time is not ticking while that line is hanging. This is very important. The time value of LIVE trades is only active when the game is on, including breaks, but not between halves. TV timeouts are an animal in their own right. You'll see.
I introduced the concept of time value, but it really was just the halfitme to win full game line, which like the spread, was the same bet as the pre game.
So how do we even approach this concept of time value? Obviously that's for another time but for those who explore the numbers. Keep it simple. Scores, margins, at points in time, consider breaking the game up into pieces, percents even. Ask the question "with this percent of game/qtr/half left" or even estimated things like "what percentage of the estimated number of possessions have gone by/yet to be played" and don't be afraid to use pregame ratings to keep a baseline in comparing teams, even after the game starts. There is a lot of noise night to night. It's a game of runs.
You could even use the pregame closing market in one of the rare instances where you use the market to beat itself.
And there's a Totals market as well.
Finally, as always, injuries abound, and try to fuk shit up. Sure, it has the psychological effect of leaving the losing phoenix bettors feeling like they still made the right choice, and they come back for more market action. Psychologically and for market sustainability, all bettors win.
But I want to address some posts made very close to each other...
These were power posted and reflected a moving market that did at the break snap back to the +200 from around 276 before breaking 300. It is my belief, and I believe it strongly enough to bring it up as an example you will encounter, that the Booker injury weakened the market support relative to my perceived time value and probabilities.
Shifting those probablities with injuries is, well, tricky and not even really fully worked, to be honest. I say fuk it, it's noise...lol.
As long as we get what need, if it's not what we want, I don't mind leaving a fraction of a percent of edge, thus money, on the table.
But I can tell you that in game injuries have this effect on support and resistance levels, and you will see it too.
Ok, just wanted to get that off my chest and give a little guidance for some who are looking at it.
Comment -
How much cocaine did KVB do last night??? Jeeeeesus.Comment -
Tremendous work by the sharps hereComment -
Just woke up saw suns lost wowComment -
Have you ever seen Jerry sneeze? Elaine; “ We talked about this already “.Comment -
Dubs r beating them guysComment -
Jerry gargles?Comment -
Suns are-1 in game 3Comment -
Books needed a New Orleans win. Miami Memphis Phoenix ML everywhereComment
