Scott Foster is in Phoenix tonight

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:10 PM

I often say I don't like to lead early, but that doesn't mean you can't profit from it.

There was ample opportunity to sell the moneyline back tonight already, for those seeking a more steady income.

If you track your bets and why you made them, you just might discover when and where the opportunities arise.

It's not easy, this little piece of the business, but if you get the knack for it, can be very profitbale, often times risk free when the trades are done.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. But it's only after you can appreciate what they bring that you can truly appreciate how they bring it.

It's a tough racket at this level of money grabbing, but it can be much more steady then the ups and downs of strictly +EV advantage betting. Open the position with the advantage, the EV, make no mistake, and if you pay attention and do it right, you will be able to profit or minimize risk.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:10 PM

+5.5 wins. It took a historical performance by booker to win the first hf for the suns

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:13 PM

**stevenash** · 04-19-22, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

+5.5 wins. It took a historical performance by booker to win the first hf for the suns

Boom!

**stevenash** · 04-19-22, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by KVB

That buzzer beater three helping out the over cause here.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:17 PM

Now they offer the bettor the same line as earlier, and a +235 moneyline can be had.

But we will see that moneyline drop, the space to trade is low.

That's because the Suns splashed our pile, and now there is less to work with.

That happens a lot, I mentioned that, as warning to those embarking.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:18 PM

If you're a US book, say in PA you are getting fukked here.

Some spots in Jersey too.

I'm looking at you SugarHouse.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:19 PM

If you are wide, know your markets. Know what to expect from them. They are suprisingly consistent.

**stevenash** · 04-19-22, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by KVB

If you're a US book, say in PA you are getting fukked here.

Some spots in Jersey too.

I'm looking at you SugarHouse.

Heritage is where it's at.

Continue the go amigo.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:20 PM

+220 is a reasonable settle offshore, but I would pass.

An argument could be made though.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

That buzzer beater three helping out the over cause here.

Nice

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Pelicans+5.5+102 and+250 ml first hf

Notice Lakerboy's number here.

+102

Professional, it's a grind.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:26 PM

Grabbing the second hf+4.5+103. It beats what I have at+9.5-105.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Notice Lakerboy's number here.

+102

Professional, it's a grind.

Yup. Grab every opportunity you can.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:27 PM

Can get +400 LIVE moneyline for the game.

But we already got that.

There is time value to the LIVE number. It's can be like market options.

The Suns splashed our pile. Did I mention that happens often? So it's a pass.

At first, trade fast and early, to minimize risk. Don't have to sell it all back. But understand the time value of the LIVE numbers.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:28 PM

Pelicans can keep scoring imo. Suns aren't here to work tonight. They just want the 2-0 lead

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Grabbing the second hf+4.5+103. It beats what I have at+9.5-105.

It's always a factor to consider.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:32 PM

Some markets will sour quick as vig just rises. I think this is volume related and have evidence, data, to support it.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:34 PM

I didn't post at the time. But if you review the game, you'll see that they were overdue a TV timeout and around 6 mins to go in the first, see how they stop play to lead to the TV timeout.

lol

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:36 PM

Personally, I am still holding a lot of pregame position. Some was traded, I was exposed.

I hold +10, like I posted, but I intend to get both teams as underdogs.

Let's see how it goes.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:37 PM

**slayer14** · 04-19-22, 10:37 PM

pelicans could pull off the upset from here

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:38 PM

Suns selling at a game time and full game discount.

Time value works both ways.

The longer they keep it close, the better chance we have...until a point.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Personally, I am still holding a lot of pregame position. Some was traded, I was exposed...

Understand, I sold some because of reasons not discussed as the game changes and odds progress.

I was a little worried. Know that I paid a cost of vigorish to sell some of that back.

The erosion (of both bakroll and advantage) caused by vigorish is like compounding interest in reverse.

One of the most powerful forces in the universe.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:44 PM

If you can figure out time value, you can really begin to ask whether the line is where it should be or not.

One half of the story you know. There is pressure on the Phoenix moneyline.

It's tough to keep it depressed.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:45 PM

Of note. The other side of the current LIVE trade.

2-1's our ot the door.

And I'll tell you this.

There is not a lot of difference among the marketplace.

Traders are stamping out inefficiencies among providers.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:48 PM

There's a decent pool of money and if you take part in the give and take, you can take money from that pool.

Sometimes the wave just comes up and hits you, fills your pockets. Sometimes you have to reach out at arms length and just dip in a little glass....see what you come up with.

At all times there is risk. It must be managed.

Like stocks, you don't have to be at the bottom and top, there is plenty of room in between.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by KVB

If you can figure out time value, you can really begin to ask whether the line is where it should be or not.

One half of the story you know. There is pressure on the Phoenix moneyline.

It's tough to keep it depressed.

Originally posted by KVB

...I intend to get both teams as underdogs...

This will not be an easy task.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:53 PM

My gawd, suns at less the 150, a psycholoigicla level.

Guess where it was, -149.

Ever here of the .99 coin?

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:55 PM

Suns in plus territory.

Traders will trade into this. It will be harder per point to keep it here and make it a further dog. It's a support level.

Until it's not, one way or the other.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:55 PM

We hold, and seek a break of support in our direction.

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:56 PM

+140 is out there, not a bad play with a whole quarter to go.

If you are trading a position.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-19-22, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Pelicans can keep scoring imo. Suns aren't here to work tonight. They just want the 2-0 lead

Nice insight, Laker. GL

**KVB** · 04-19-22, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by KVB

+140 is out there, not a bad play with a whole quarter to go.

If you are trading a position.

I don't think we saw a trade there.

A more realistic price was +125, and the analysis is the same.

**lakerboy** · 04-19-22, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by KVB

+140 is out there, not a bad play with a whole quarter to go.

If you are trading a position.

You think the Pelicans will score 26 points in the 4th?