Best bets for the BMW Championship
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worth considering?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Jon Rahm to win (+650), Top-10 finish (-187)
Fallica: Like last week, it's as chalky of a pick as one could make, but it's an obvious no-brainer to me. His last four events have resulted in a win at the U.S. Open, a T-3 at The Open, what would have been a win at the Memorial (had he not tested positive for COVID-19) and a third-place finish last week when he somehow coughed up a 2-shot lead on the back nine. As the defending champion at this event -- at a different course, mind you -- coupled with the events of last week, I expect he'll once again be right there with a chance to win.
Bryson DeChambeau to win (+2000); Boost Top-10 finish (+275)
Marks: Caves Valley is a big boy course, and those that can grip and rip it have a huge advantage to avoid trouble in the fairways. There are several par 4s that are 460 plus, and reachable par 5s in two for DeChambeau.
Viktor Hovland to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: His weekend at Liberty National didn't end well with a 77 (42 on the front nine), but his overall play was good, going 68-67-65 in the first three rounds. That's good enough to convince me he's close to the level of play he achieved earlier this year.
Scottie Scheffler to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: Well in the last few weeks, Xander Schauffele has won Olympic gold, Abraham Ancer has won a WGC and Tony Finau won the Northern Trust. Who's next to take home a big prize after chasing a win for a while? Maybe Scottie Scheffler, who's posted a Top 10 in the last two majors and played some of the best golf of his career in last year's playoffs.
Props
Corey Conners Top-20 finish (-110)
Marks: Conners tied the Liberty National course record last week with a 62 on Saturday. His iron play is on point, and he's driving the ball well.
Joaquin Niemann Top-20 finish (+100); Top South American (+115)
Marks: Niemann loves putting on bentgrass and is a beast on Tom Fazio courses. His first tour win was at "The Old White TPC" -- a Fazio track. Niemann is another grip it and rip it golfer with a big driving distance advantage.
Jon Rahm Top-5 finish (+125)
Marks: I'm not picking Rahm to win, due to mental fatigue on a short workweek. His iron play is on point (over 8 strokes gained on approach at Liberty National), but does not necessarily have his vintage game on longer courses.
Rory McIlroy Top-10 finish (+225)
Marks: McIlroy is second in driving distance this season, and again -- that is a metric I am weighing heavily this week. He also loves Fazio courses as well as the Fed Ex Cup format.
Charley Hoffman Top-20 finish (+250)
Marks: Hoffman checks all the boxes for me this week -- coming off an impressive showing at the Northern Trust; 5th in driving distance, 15th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, 17th in SG on approach, and 21st in GIR.
Webb Simpson leader after 1st round (+3300)
Marks: Caves Valley is a very unfamiliar course to many golfers who will tee it up Thursday. It is a very exclusive track -- that typically welcomes only the rich and famous -- and has not hosted many PGA Tour events. Simpson has logged the most rounds on this track of any golfer teeing it up, which is a nice advantage, especially for the first round.
Matchups
Justin Thomas (-110) over Collin Morikawa
Marks: JT went back to old faithful this past week, and gained over 4 strokes in putting against the field. He's ranked 6th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, so I expect him to be a birdie machine this week.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worth considering?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Jon Rahm to win (+650), Top-10 finish (-187)
Fallica: Like last week, it's as chalky of a pick as one could make, but it's an obvious no-brainer to me. His last four events have resulted in a win at the U.S. Open, a T-3 at The Open, what would have been a win at the Memorial (had he not tested positive for COVID-19) and a third-place finish last week when he somehow coughed up a 2-shot lead on the back nine. As the defending champion at this event -- at a different course, mind you -- coupled with the events of last week, I expect he'll once again be right there with a chance to win.
Bryson DeChambeau to win (+2000); Boost Top-10 finish (+275)
Marks: Caves Valley is a big boy course, and those that can grip and rip it have a huge advantage to avoid trouble in the fairways. There are several par 4s that are 460 plus, and reachable par 5s in two for DeChambeau.
Viktor Hovland to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: His weekend at Liberty National didn't end well with a 77 (42 on the front nine), but his overall play was good, going 68-67-65 in the first three rounds. That's good enough to convince me he's close to the level of play he achieved earlier this year.
Scottie Scheffler to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)
Fallica: Well in the last few weeks, Xander Schauffele has won Olympic gold, Abraham Ancer has won a WGC and Tony Finau won the Northern Trust. Who's next to take home a big prize after chasing a win for a while? Maybe Scottie Scheffler, who's posted a Top 10 in the last two majors and played some of the best golf of his career in last year's playoffs.
Props
Corey Conners Top-20 finish (-110)
Marks: Conners tied the Liberty National course record last week with a 62 on Saturday. His iron play is on point, and he's driving the ball well.
Joaquin Niemann Top-20 finish (+100); Top South American (+115)
Marks: Niemann loves putting on bentgrass and is a beast on Tom Fazio courses. His first tour win was at "The Old White TPC" -- a Fazio track. Niemann is another grip it and rip it golfer with a big driving distance advantage.
Jon Rahm Top-5 finish (+125)
Marks: I'm not picking Rahm to win, due to mental fatigue on a short workweek. His iron play is on point (over 8 strokes gained on approach at Liberty National), but does not necessarily have his vintage game on longer courses.
Rory McIlroy Top-10 finish (+225)
Marks: McIlroy is second in driving distance this season, and again -- that is a metric I am weighing heavily this week. He also loves Fazio courses as well as the Fed Ex Cup format.
Charley Hoffman Top-20 finish (+250)
Marks: Hoffman checks all the boxes for me this week -- coming off an impressive showing at the Northern Trust; 5th in driving distance, 15th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, 17th in SG on approach, and 21st in GIR.
Webb Simpson leader after 1st round (+3300)
Marks: Caves Valley is a very unfamiliar course to many golfers who will tee it up Thursday. It is a very exclusive track -- that typically welcomes only the rich and famous -- and has not hosted many PGA Tour events. Simpson has logged the most rounds on this track of any golfer teeing it up, which is a nice advantage, especially for the first round.
Matchups
Justin Thomas (-110) over Collin Morikawa
Marks: JT went back to old faithful this past week, and gained over 4 strokes in putting against the field. He's ranked 6th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, so I expect him to be a birdie machine this week.
