Anyone Trading Political Markets At PredictIt?

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388189

    #1
    Anyone Trading Political Markets At PredictIt?
    I know $800 max position but very liquid
  • ronald
    SBR MVP
    • 10-31-05
    • 4918

    #2
    Video poker dot com is the best place to play lots of games
    Comment
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74817

      #3
      $800 max position?

      Does that go up during the political season?

      If I recall, Rudy understood these markets quite a bit and was willing to try to squeeze out some profit.
      Comment
      • Snowball
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 11-15-09
        • 30042

        #4
        Originally posted by KVB
        $800 max position?

        Does that go up during the political season?

        If I recall, Rudy understood these markets quite a bit and was willing to try to squeeze out some profit.
        The max is $850 per contract, but by spending time looking at all the markets, you will discover additional contracts
        that are virtually identical. The contract is not the proposition, but only 1 of the bet props PER proposition. This is more true when there are many propositions around election time, and less true in the quiet times. Some "markets" aka propositions are just going to have 1 single possible answer, unconnected to other markets, so there's nothing you ca do about the limit, but you can try to increase profits by trading in and out.
        Comment
        • KVB
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 05-29-14
          • 74817

          #5
          Originally posted by Snowball
          The max is $850 per contract, but by spending time looking at all the markets, you will discover additional contracts
          that are virtually identical. The contract is not the proposition, but only 1 of the bet props PER proposition.
          That makes way more sense.
          Comment
          • Snowball
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 11-15-09
            • 30042

            #6
            Originally posted by KVB
            That makes way more sense.
            for example. Republicans are 70 cents YES to win House in 2022. The Democrats NO is 69 cents.
            NO's on the other side are often lower, as people don't think to buy the other side's NO, but just bet YES on theirs.
            This makes some overspill. But there's another market for McCarthy. Who'll be the next Speaker? - a totally separate prop market. McCarthy is only 56 cents on the ask. In that market, you have Jeffries, the Democrat, Pelosi, and real low chances like Trump or Scalise, they are 3,4 cents. So, the 850 limit is doubled here, because McCarthy is basically automatic to be the Speaker if GOP wins.

            From a trading perspective if the GOP stays hot in polls, and if Trump doesn't run for Congress, that McCarthy 56 cents will rise to get closer to the GOP market price.

            In the general election times it's possible to arrange if you are clever and spend time on it more than 2 like this.

            But in reality the way to make money on PI is not connected to your limit. It's the trading on news, recognizing what will become hot before it does, and cold before it chills off. There are also scalpers.

            It's also profitable to hound over NEW/ADDED MARKETS as they are released, early bird prices, beat the crowd.
            Last edited by Snowball; 08-08-21, 04:58 PM.
            Comment
            • Otters27
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 07-14-07
              • 30749

              #7
              JJ. What are odds on Desantis or a Trump Desantis ticket
              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #8
                Originally posted by Snowball
                ..But in reality the way to make money on PI is not connected to your limit. It's the trading on news, recognizing what will become hot before it does, and cold before it chills off. ..
                Exactly, that's what Rudy understood as well. It's not about being right, or buying at the lowest and selling at the highest or just having the right side at game time.

                It's about buying low and selling for some profit, in the middle of the lowest/highest range.

                I think there is real opportunity in there, but closer to election season seems more likely to get that opportunity.
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388189

                  #9
                  They cover a lot of elections

                  The 800 was a way to make it legal in the US And the owners signed a nonprofit clause they have a written agreement with futures exchange But it’s really not officially regulated and it’s not from the US But there’s no issues the money is safe they do tons of volume


                  I think they also have a deal with coin base that’s how I post it up it’s kind of automated
                  Comment
                  • KVB
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 05-29-14
                    • 74817

                    #10
                    Tons of volume is right. The era of Donald J. Trump has forever changed the political gambling landscape.
                    Last edited by KVB; 08-08-21, 05:44 PM. Reason: sbr glitching.
                    Comment
                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388189

                      #11
                      Yes but he is still king of volume

                      I also signed up at the federal regulated one But this one does not allow political elections but does have a lot of interesting events I think weather is beatable And I believe it’s 25,000 max which is really nice for big players it’s just in beta but this is going to grow fast

                      kalshi
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #12


                        That last US election had more action than the superbowl, I believe, worldwide.

                        There was huge interest.
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #13
                          SBR is broken, some ad is messing up the loading, I'm out.

                          Comment
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