Alright listen up you penetrating degenerate losers of SBR
I need soldiers, manpower to make some penetrating $$$$ alright
I'll provide you the tools and knowhow how to develop a working model for basically any sport or game of skill
I need you dumbasses as a collective community to keep it up to date as a community project so that we can all make $$$$
Heres a previous of what the finished product looks like for Tennis:
So for Wimbeldon finals (BO5) it spits out a "True line" of Djokovic -772, while the offered line is around -480 right now
For the Semis the lines would have been Djokovic -1328 and Berrettini -238
Its a glicko-2 rating system model. It will spit out the "True" line with no vig for a BO3 or BO5.
It can be modified to do anything, any sport or game of skill ML, BO3 etc
I need you dumbasses to keep it up to date for me so I can spend my time on other things so I'm sharing it. Hopefully there are 2-3 responses fro,m people who arent complete penetrating jackasses and dumbfucks and can operate Excel to a reasonable level
I can keep it up to date for 2-3 sports / leagues but i cant penetrating update it for every single sport so I'm missing value and $$$$
Lets see where this thread goes
EDIT: The plan is that i upload the raw template to Google Sheets or some shit like that and the community maintains it for each sport. This is how sportsbooks generate their lines, its a mix of glicko-2 calibration and poisson distribution.
This removes emotion from it, but doesnt factor in situational factors (especially team sports with injuries etc)
I need volunteers and not penetrating dumbasses either
Here's what each individual calibration sheet looks like
So you do this for every team or player and it calibrates everyone's relative skill to each other. It translates to a single "Rating" number which is in the first link. Then the probability of winning is calculated with the glicko formula
Heres the calibrating formulas for you dumbasses
And the win probability calculation:
=1/(1+(10^-((B3-D3)/400)))
where B3 is the Rating of Player 1
and D3 is the Rating of Player 2
Essentially a 400 difference in Rating = 90% chance of winning. Then you adjust from here, as a "True skill difference of 400" for BO3 in tennis will be different for BO5 etc
Who wants to volunteer
I need soldiers, manpower to make some penetrating $$$$ alright
I'll provide you the tools and knowhow how to develop a working model for basically any sport or game of skill
I need you dumbasses as a collective community to keep it up to date as a community project so that we can all make $$$$
Heres a previous of what the finished product looks like for Tennis:
So for Wimbeldon finals (BO5) it spits out a "True line" of Djokovic -772, while the offered line is around -480 right now
For the Semis the lines would have been Djokovic -1328 and Berrettini -238
Its a glicko-2 rating system model. It will spit out the "True" line with no vig for a BO3 or BO5.
It can be modified to do anything, any sport or game of skill ML, BO3 etc
I need you dumbasses to keep it up to date for me so I can spend my time on other things so I'm sharing it. Hopefully there are 2-3 responses fro,m people who arent complete penetrating jackasses and dumbfucks and can operate Excel to a reasonable level
I can keep it up to date for 2-3 sports / leagues but i cant penetrating update it for every single sport so I'm missing value and $$$$
Lets see where this thread goes
EDIT: The plan is that i upload the raw template to Google Sheets or some shit like that and the community maintains it for each sport. This is how sportsbooks generate their lines, its a mix of glicko-2 calibration and poisson distribution.
This removes emotion from it, but doesnt factor in situational factors (especially team sports with injuries etc)
I need volunteers and not penetrating dumbasses either
Here's what each individual calibration sheet looks like
So you do this for every team or player and it calibrates everyone's relative skill to each other. It translates to a single "Rating" number which is in the first link. Then the probability of winning is calculated with the glicko formula
Heres the calibrating formulas for you dumbasses
And the win probability calculation:
=1/(1+(10^-((B3-D3)/400)))
where B3 is the Rating of Player 1
and D3 is the Rating of Player 2
Essentially a 400 difference in Rating = 90% chance of winning. Then you adjust from here, as a "True skill difference of 400" for BO3 in tennis will be different for BO5 etc
Who wants to volunteer
I will go half in on the diamond package with you bro
