arizona diamondbacks and baltimore orioles pit pirates

[cincinnatikid513]

arizona diamondbacks have lost 20 straight road games and 6 wins 34 losses last 40 games

baltimore orioles have lost 16 straight road games

pirates have lost 8 in a row overall and 14 of last 16 road games



losing is a disease

[cincinnatikid513]

arizona loses again on the road now 21 straight road losses

baltimorre loses again on the road that is 17 straight road losses

pittsburgh loses again 9 in a row over all 15 of 17 road games


feels like u could just fade baltimore arizona and pittsburgh every night and make lots of money

[Orbison]

Dbacks just lost again in crippling fashion. they lead 7-0 in the 2nd inning but ended up losing 9-8 with Yaz hitting a 2-out grand slam in the bottom of the 8th with the Giants down 8-5

Orioles and Bucs both lost too, but at least those were in blowout fashion which is a lot less heartbreaking i suppose

[Bakerdew]

Some teams are made to fade.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

It does seem like there have been an unusually large amout of streaks this year; Colorado is 5-27 on the road.

[KVB]

arizona loses again on the road now 21 straight road losses

baltimorre loses again on the road that is 17 straight road losses

pittsburgh loses again 9 in a row over all 15 of 17 road games


feels like u could just fade baltimore arizona and pittsburgh every night and make lots of money

We're in a bit of market shakeout, some just entered a little earlier than others and the broader market shakeout has caught all these individual teams in trouble as well.

Here's what happened if you bet 1 unit on each of these teams since the beginning of the season...

[hehfest]

Bad teams just find a way to lose......the Detroit Lions have done that since I've been born. I really thought Balty could have been better this year, but they just don't have the pitching. Probably same for those other squads too.......no pitching.

[Orbison]

We're in a bit of market shakeout, some just entered a little earlier than others and the broader market shakeout has caught all these individual teams in trouble as well.

Here's what happened if you bet 1 unit on each of these teams since the beginning of the season...

on your baseball graphs, is the x axis always the number of games played?

[KVB]

on your baseball graphs, is the x axis always the number of games played?

On these yes. With 0 being the first point. So there is always one extra number in the graph. In the teams graph Zona has 68 games while the other two have 66 games.

To make the graphs decent, point 1 is alway 0 and point 2 becomes the first game.

The Y axis is units and I didn't really label that there.

[KVB]

If you start at the the right (point 69, naturally) and go back about 7 to 10 plays and you can see where the broader market shakeout kicked in.

All three of those teams had a decent start but were on the downslide outright win loss wise before the broader shakeout came into play. Then things just got worse.

That's what I meant by the broader market shakeout catching these teams that were in trouble.

[KVB]

While there do seem to be some crazy streaks none of this is unusual and happens nearly yearly. Last year was a little different with COVID, but not really, as there was a run last year that made many of us a lot of money from about mid season on.

This is a shakeout of that market and those bettors. It was bound to happen and even the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone saw it coming but the markets were supported by the increased handle that came with the NBA and NHL playoffs this year. That support waned, even though the volume was there, because the forces pulling the market down are just too strong.

[KVB]

On Arizona tonight.

16-Jun	STL -108	0.93
	COL +176	1.76
	ARI +155
	TEX +211
	Total	2.69

[cincinnatikid513]

all lost again today it's unreal


arizona up to what 22 road losses in a row
baltimore 18 straight road losses
pittsburgh 10 in a row


they lose every day

[Bakerdew]

We're in a bit of market shakeout, some just entered a little earlier than others and the broader market shakeout has caught all these individual teams in trouble as well.

Here's what happened if you bet 1 unit on each of these teams since the beginning of the season...

Where would you be if you faded them all season?

[cincinnatikid513]

arizona has lost 36 of 42 games jfc

[cincinnatikid513]

misses out of some easy 3 team parlays

[cincinnatikid513]

zona bout tie the road loss record tonight tommorow is for the all time record 23

1. 1963 Mets: 22 games (June 16 to July 28)
2. 1943 Athletics: 22 games (July 11 to August 28)

[Bakerdew]

misses out of some easy 3 team parlays

Sounds like a plan.

[cincinnatikid513]

Sounds like a plan.

too late


i'm not a gambler

[KVB]

Where would you be if you faded them all season?

That's a good question. It's not how many think.

In baseball we play money into money, it's not a spread game so just Fading in losses isn't always what it seems.

I kept ARI, BALT, and PIT the same dull colors but then I added Minn, Atl, and the NYY in brighter colors. The SD Padres are close to Pit here, but not on the chart...

[spippen]

I love that graph method KVB. Thanks for posting the example.

[Bakerdew]

That's a good question. It's not how many think.

In baseball we play money into money, it's not a spread game so just Fading in losses isn't always what it seems.

I kept ARI, BALT, and PIT the same dull colors but then I added Minn, Atl, and the NYY in brighter colors. The SD Padres are close to Pit here, but not on the chart...

Nice job on the graph. Thanks.

[JIBBBY]

Zona on auto fade on the road. Solid streak and I've had my eye on that for a while now.

[cincinnatikid513]

Zona on auto fade on the road. Solid streak and I've had my eye on that for a while now.

today they go for the record 23 road losses in a row, baltimore not too far behind

[jjgold]

Cincy do you ever get tired of losing?

[cincinnatikid513]

Cincy do you ever get tired of losing?

20 years of losing why stop now

[KVB]

I love that graph method KVB. Thanks for posting the example.

Thanks bro.

spippen you should dig into some of my market tracking Funds and that work, we make some real use of charting.

Anyway, so what can we learn form this?

It doesn't tell the whole story but remember these graphs are units. Look at Minnesota, the best team to Fade all season. Not a lot of up and down there.

For Minnesota, and there are other tools to help confirm or corroborate this, it appears as though the market has overestimated them. They aren't the worst team, record wise, so it can't be attributed to just losses, like Arizona is looking.

It appears the books haven't been charging enough for the Fade and they still haven't caught up. Twins Faders are getting bang for their buck, whether laying or taking.

We can do a further analysis of win percentage and lay it over the charts as well. We can also do it with margins of victory, seeing just how far off the books are, but that works best with Totals and spread bets in other sports as the ml on a converted 12-3 win is too far out of bounds to work with. It's also why we use medians.

Anyway, the chart and the Twins...

[KVB]

I made one more chart, altering that minny trendline a little bit.

This way it shows with a little variance that indeed the books might just be overstimating the twins, or at least the public is in the auction marketplace.

See what I did here with the black line?

[KVB]

Throw out some teams, follow or fade, and I'll put up a chart when I get to it.

[Bakerdew]

My fade of Baltimore and Arizona looks pretty good today.

[KVB]

My fade of Baltimore and Arizona looks pretty good today.

Yes, the public has been winning for some time but it's actually a pretty short blip on the radar, it always is.

The value bettors always get the best of it though as the market will turn, it always does.

[Bakerdew]

I like to do parlays of the teams playing the 2 worst records, If that is all I bet I would be in good shape.

[JIBBBY]

Fading Zona is straight up money.. The streak continues!!

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks-san-francisco-giants-410617126/

[Bakerdew]

The parlay against them is working.