Well we cannot win -110 so how do you win with tremendous juice live betting??
Books love it and push it everywhere featured every book in world
Books love it and push it everywhere featured every book in world
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How do you shave you face every single morning like you are going to die if you don’t?Comment -
live betting juice is bullshet just like those horse shet stub hub service fees that adjust with the price of ticketComment -
How lucrative to a book
-120 both sidesComment -
Be extremely accurateComment -
You don't.Comment -
The lines are bullshit but you can only take+ money live betting. If you are laying any juice at all live you are doing it wrong. The idea is to find a line based on the pregame at+ money and play it.
Live betting
Soccer totals yes
NBA totals yes
Nfl no chance I bet anything live
NHL puckline with+
Baseball I don't bother until playoffs
You can tell what books are doing if you are really into it too the point of just staring at it.Comment -
It is not unusual for me to look at 3 books and see baseball totals (or al totals) like this:
Book 1: O8.5-122/U8.5-103
Book 2: O8.5-115/U8.5-112
Book 3: O8.5+106/U8.5-132
Now tell me why you can't win.
Juice (sorta) doesn't matter when you're only betting one side at the book. Even with the juice, it is possible to find value. Books post live lines for everything all the time. You only have to pick off the value whenever you see it. They have to be right 100% of the time; you can find the 5% of the time that they misprice the market.
But yeah, if you are dart throwing live betting without a clue then yeah, you're gonna get slaughtered.Comment -
So much wrong there.
You can definitely take - money. Sometimes those are the best values.
Baseball might actually be the best.
Keep in mind, by and large you are trying to beat the algorithms so you need to find edges that the algo can't or doesn't account for. And of course you must have many outs and be quick.Comment -
someone told me you dont lay juice if you winComment -
I don't bother with live much anymore. I certainly don't have the time to do it like in the past or the interest. I get what you are saying taking- money but that's not for me. Soccer without question the best option live. So many options with the handicap and three way lines and+money totals.Comment -
Isn't live betting basically betting regression to the mean?Comment -
Live Betting, is highly selective for me. But I do like the early sell your bet for a profit in baseball on more occasions than live betting. Sold 2 bets early this week for a profit and both teams eventually lost. I never use the sell for a loss option. Just the way I play.Comment -
I rarely bet live, but here is a breakdown of my numbers Pre-Game vs. In-Play:
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JJ, this is the sharpest post you've made in 2021.
No way...I mean no-way...is someone good enuf to sit on their ass and bet into -115/-115 to turn a profit.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The key is to have strong records across the board, dumb shitComment -
Without running more detailed numbers, I suspect it's usually -115 or higher. The breakdown is a bit misleading because a large chunk of that $5k of volume is from books offering live betting bonuses. Bet365, for example, throws me $100 a week of NFL live bets. I often don't have an opinion or edge on any of those games, so I hedge and take the guaranteed profit.Comment -
No, not even close. It just may appear that way because in every sport they play to the numbers.
You can view live betting a couple of different ways but one that is helpful is to recognize that the situation once a game starts has changed and live lines follow that.
They don't imply regression and betting against a rising line is not betting on a regression to any mean.
Then again, you can see games come close to final numbers wqhen they weren't mid game, but that's not regressing to a mean. It's intentional for the live markets.
It can be confusing if you don't understand the mechanics.Comment -
Well that's true for other types of betting too. Actually, I think you can mask it longer with live-betting because it's much harder for them to tell you're getting good numbers when it's moving so quickly. My track record in the last year proves it is not a waste of time.Comment -
Pretty much spot on. They are already imposing limits and high vig to protect themselves, they know bettors can sting them. But they might take a little longer to catch you if you aren't slamming limits.
I suggest spreading the action over multiple books, many of which will use basically the same feed or service.
It works if you work it, even at the high vig. From what I can tell, so far, it's a better deal than the prop builders we've been testing.Comment -
Spot betting Gold, grabbing the deals.
The key is to have a roadmap before you go in, know exactly what you're looking for and exactly how you expect the market to react, or rather OVER-react and then you strike.
Like any day of betting, if you have a roadmap to know the enemy and you know your intentions, knowing yourself, then when the bullets fly and the fog of war is everywhere, you won't be lost and at wonder as to what to do; you won't freeze at the terminal.
You can try volume but that will likely entail betting both sides a lot and searching for those middles. Another factor is that live betting can prey on emotions, just like any market, and while that's where you get overreactions, it's also where bettors slip in in money management.
If you want to beat high vig, you simply can't change your bet size constantly, it's a killer.
Money managment, discipline, and patience can get a bettor there if he wants to be there, but that's nothing new.
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Meh on that. I bet when I have an edge so don't worry about bet size, which is typically going to be limit or very close anyway.Spot betting Gold, grabbing the deals.
The key is to have a roadmap before you go in, know exactly what you're looking for and exactly how you expect the market to react, or rather OVER-react and then you strike.
Like any day of betting, if you have a roadmap to know the enemy and you know your intentions, knowing yourself, then when the bullets fly and the fog of war is everywhere, you won't be lost and at wonder as to what to do; you won't freeze at the terminal.
You can try volume but that will likely entail betting both sides a lot and searching for those middles. Another factor is that live betting can prey on emotions, just like any market, and while that's where you get overreactions, it's also where bettors slip in in money management.
If you want to beat high vig, you simply can't change your bet size constantly, it's a killer.
Money managment, discipline, and patience can get a bettor there if he wants to be there, but that's nothing new.
But yeah, spot betting. It's kind of like how terrorists are successful. You have to be right all of the time to defend against it, terrorist just have to find one spot soft out of an infinity. So sharp live bettors are kinda like terrorists.
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I am most definitely referring to the volume part of my post when I talk about changing bet size.Meh on that. I bet when I have an edge so don't worry about bet size, which is typically going to be limit or very close anyway.
But yeah, spot betting. It's kind of like how terrorists are successful. You have to be right all of the time to defend against it, terrorist just have to find one spot soft out of an infinity. So sharp live bettors are kinda like terrorists.Comment -
I went all in on Nadal today -340 line and got smackedComment -
JJ, you don't. Nobody wins ,you know this. The books win.המוסד
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ArbitrageComment
