Explain to me again why GB went for a FG on 4th and goal

[MinnesotaFats]

LeFluer 2 nfc championship games versus 2 teams that are horrible and cant win either lol

[Chi_archie]

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said call to kick FG late 'felt like right decision

woah


way closer than I would have thought


According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said call to kick FG late 'felt like right decision

The analytics were against the move with EdjSports win probability model saying LaFleur’s decision reduced Green Bay’s chances of winning the game from 10.8% to 7.8%. LaFleur had been one of the best coaches when it comes to decision-making by EdjSports model, ranking third best this season.

The decision was extremely rare as no team had attempted a field goal in the final three minutes of a game when trailing by between four and eight points since the Falcons in 2015. LaFleur was an assistant on Dan Quinn’s staff in Atlanta for that game.

“I couldn’t believe it, honestly, because there’s no guarantee they’re going to make it back down there again," Buccaneers edge rusher Shaquil Barrett said.

“Our offense has been pretty amazing in four-minute offense this year, not giving the team back the ball so I had the utmost confidence in them. ... If he could take it back he probably wouldn’t do that next time but I appreciate it.”
--------------------------------------------------------

Idiot coach didn't know the analytics. Go figure he was on the Falcons team and still doing dumb shit.

[Chi_archie]

looks like the consensus is that Green Bay had about 10% chance of winning there in the end

[gummo]

Now we have to discuss why Buffalo went for 2 after their last TD.

[seaborneq]

looks like the consensus is that Green Bay had about 10% chance of winning there in the end

Zero percent kicking the fg

[Chi_archie]

Zero percent kicking the fg

well it looks like it was about 8-9%

[Mac4Lyfe]

woahway closer than I would have thoughtAccording to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

I do not trust ESPNs math. That number does not look correct. Do they use probabilities based on a teams past performance or do they factor in the current game? I put much more confidence in what my eyes tell me on game day versus games a week, month, early in the season. Packers defense was gassed and wasn't stopping TB, Brady was stopping TB. You know in crunch time TB is going to do enough to get 1 first down. On the other side, you have the #1 QB in the league. How do you not give him another chance? It makes no sense. Trust your offense which is the strength of the team or rely on a defense that haven't been able to stop people all season?

[thomorino]

The real dumb decision was going for 2 in the third, it’s dumb to chase points before the 4th quarter in a high scoring game.

[Chi_archie]

my eyes told me that Green Bay had held Tampa Bay to about 100 yards of offense in the 2nd half. the longest drive they had in the 2nd half was a 44 yard drive

So I guess the more I look at it. A case can be made that Green Bay had figured out how to stymie TB

anyway you look at it. Green Bay had very little chance to win that, after Aaron Rodgers pooped his pants and went 3 and out immediately after the last two interceptions of TB12.

The coach should have rolled the dice with his highly paid, big name QB and let him take the credit or criticism for the win or loss. but now he created a movement to get him run out of town eventually, if he doesn't find a way to win it all next year

[Mac4Lyfe]

my eyes told me that Green Bay had held Tampa Bay to about 100 yards of offense in the 2nd half. the longest drive they had in the 2nd half was a 44 yard drive
The coach should have rolled the dice with his highly paid, big name QB and let him take the credit or criticism for the win or loss. but now he created a movement to get him run out of town eventually, if he doesn't find a way to win it all next year

Green Bay didn't really hold Tampa Bay. Tom Brad held Tampa Bay with WTF interceptions. To me, that is even more reason to go for it on 4th down. If your defense stopped TB in the 2nd half, don't you expect them to stop them again if you don't make the 4th down?

[trytrytry]

you are on the way to the superbowl on the 8 yard line, you can go for it with pride. phuck the sabermetrics plus or minus 1% difference sheets. you need to take a shot with your best play there period. have they fired that coach yet.

[Sledge187]

No explanation. Even if they did not get the td on fourth down?
Bucs are pinned inside the 10, and Packers still have all three timeouts

Great point! I didn't even think about that part. It just felt like a field goal was meaningless in that situation.

[DwightShrute]

I know I'm not a coach or anything, just need someone to explain it to me

TIA

bad call.

[DwightShrute]

Matt Lafleur Is The Greatest Coward Of All Time

https://www.facebook.com/stoolpresidente/videos/684405188896793

[navyblue81]

Rodgers said in presser he called 3rd down play thinking they were going for it on fourth regardless. Said he would have called diff play if he knew his HC would kick.

[johnnyvegas13]

Rodgers said in presser he called 3rd down play thinking they were going for it on fourth regardless. Said he would have called diff play if he knew his HC would kick.

Dammmm

coach might get fired here

[milwaukee mike]

woah


way closer than I would have thought


According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.

you were right with your roughly 20% chance of getting td/2 pt... then they would be tied and roughly 50/50 so about 10% to win the game by going for it

just about the same % by kicking the fg... heck if they didn't call that pass int on kevin king the packers would've had at least a 25% chance of winning

everyone bashing lafleur for what was a coin flip decision, yet nobody giving him credit for the terrific decision to take an intentional offsides on 2nd and 1 that gave them a chance

[vitterd]

Only explanation is they didn’t trust Rodgers. To get it done but either way like said the only difference was needing 8 and needing just the 6. I think it was a good decision personally. My logic is either way they needed a defensive stop.... and the ball back would you rather have the ball needing 6? Or take your chances backed up and needing 8? Idk hard call really

They didn’t trust the mvp of the league? It was probably the worst coaching decision in recent playoff history.

[milwaukee mike]

the worst coaching decision of the game was tampa telling the kick return to slide down

he slid down at 2:02 instead of running further and getting it to the 2 minute warning

[semibluff]

I knew it was a very marginal decision. Packers were about 35% to score the TD, 50% for the 2 point conversion, 85% to not lose to the Buccaneers in the last 2 minutes, and 50% to win in overtime. My estimate was 7.44% to win the game. My estimate for making the FG, making a stop, and then scoring a TD, (no XP needed), was lower than 7.44%, but there wouldn't have been much in it. I would have gone for the TD. Even if it's not a +ve decision it's easier to sell to the fans and media.

[DwightShrute]

Bad call. It will haunt him forever just as Pete Carroll not handing it off to Marshawn Lynch in the SB

[semibluff]

the worst coaching decision of the game was tampa telling the kick return to slide down

That was the really big part of it for me. I was going nuts that he didn't run around, (and give up 10 yards if necessary), to get it to the 2 minute warning. Really poor situational coaching.

[SBR Tony]

Bucs Star Was Stunned By The Packers’ Field Goal Decision


"I couldn't believe it," Shaq Barrett says of Packers opting for a field goal instead of going for a tying touchdown on fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes left. "I know if they could take that back, they probably wouldn't do that next time."

[Wrongside]

LeFluer 2 nfc championship games versus 2 teams that are horrible and cant win either lol

You are out of line, Fats. Both teams were really good.

[TheMoneyShot]

I'm not totally against the decision. Surprising... yes. But you never know. He just felt they could stop Brady... only reason why you kick it.

[INVEGA MAN]

Super Bowl line:
KC - 3. 57.5

[Eddy Munny]

That's probably the best explanation in the entire thread

If by best you mean worst, then yeah.

[19th Hole]

The series leading up to the field goal in question was absurd.

But on third down when Rogers throws an ill-advised, errant pass to Adams because
his balls climbed up into his pelvis when he had a clear path to the end zone on the right
side of the field.

Then on 4th down, "Coach" LaFluer, who was thinking with his hat rather than his head, decides to throw away the season by kicking a meaningless field goal.

[asiagambler]

I knew it was a very marginal decision. Packers were about 35% to score the TD, 50% for the 2 point conversion, 85% to not lose to the Buccaneers in the last 2 minutes, and 50% to win in overtime. My estimate was 7.44% to win the game. My estimate for making the FG, making a stop, and then scoring a TD, (no XP needed), was lower than 7.44%, but there wouldn't have been much in it. I would have gone for the TD. Even if it's not a +ve decision it's easier to sell to the fans and media.

They are using their very best 2 point play in that situation. Has to be far greater than 50% they convert

[Wrongside]

Bad pass, but the run was not a gimme....he was in a weird trot coming out of the pocket ( not a full sprint)

[19th Hole]

Bad pass, but the run was not a gimme....he was in a weird trot coming out of the pocket ( not a full sprint)

Of course the run was not a gimme, but it looked a hell of a lot better than throwing into coverage.
Melt down.

[play4win]

Bad pass, but the run was not a gimme....he was in a weird trot coming out of the pocket ( not a full sprint)

lord, it looked like a cam newton fake dive play. you could clearly see that only option was to run but instead a pass to a wr where 2 defensive back are in front of the wr.

[Art Vandelay]

Bad pass, but the run was not a gimme....he was in a weird trot coming out of the pocket ( not a full sprint)

I think he scores or is damn close. Arod assumed they were in 4 down territory, thought he had another play - throwing into coverage was basically a throwaway. If he knew it was score or kick, I'm sure he tries to run it in. That was the best chance to score on that particular play.

[Art Vandelay]

Dammmm

coach might get fired here

Oh there's a coach getting fired here - His name is Mike Pettine!