Week 5 NFL Picks

[KVB]

Today we have one MLB game, in fact there's only one game on the entire board right now.

But with these two teams there has been a difference between them in the shortened season. A bettor betting the same unit on TB each game this season would be up nearly +15 units and the same bettor doing the same for the NYY would down a little more than -6 units, all depending ont he line they got.

On another note, ass far as the bullpens go heading into tonight's game TB's relievers have pitched just over 14 innings while New York's relievers have pitched 17 innings over the last 3 games.

Each starter is pretty hot too, each of them coming off 3 wins, wtih Cole beating TB on October 5th and Glasnow beating NYY on the October 6th.

Someone's got to lose here.

[thomorino]

How about last night's Houston/Tulane game.

Houston committed 5 turnovers to Tulane's 0 turnovers and they covered the spread.

I had the Tulane moneyline, but just how often do you think a team with a -5 turnover margin in the game covers as a favorite, like Houston last night?

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xT9IgkHfeOYv2ssK3K" width="480" height="327" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a rel="nofollow" href="https://giphy.com/gifs/what-japan-surprise-xT9IgkHfeOYv2ssK3K">via GIPHY</a></p>

Parasites

[thomorino]

Today we have one MLB game, in fact there's only one game on the entire board right now.

But with these two teams there has been a difference between them in the shortened season. A bettor betting the same unit on TB each game this season would be up nearly +15 units and the same bettor doing the same for the NYY would down a little more than -6 units, all depending ont he line they got.

On another note, ass far as the bullpens go heading into tonight's game TB's relievers have pitched just over 14 innings while New York's relievers have pitched 17 innings over the last 3 games.

Each starter is pretty hot too, each of them coming off 3 wins, wtih Cole beating TB on October 5th and Glasnow beating NYY on the October 6th.

Someone's got to lose here.

Except that means nothing since the Yankees rested starters all year, you are a dumb shit.

[Buckandadime]

The 2 cowards who hide and are afraid to post picks in players talk. 2 parasite.

[thomorino]

You are a dumb shit.

[Buckandadime]

Except that means nothing since the Yankees rested starters all year, you are a dumb shit.

Wait....
What??

[thomorino]

How about last night's Houston/Tulane game.

Houston committed 5 turnovers to Tulane's 0 turnovers and they covered the spread.

I had the Tulane moneyline, but just how often do you think a team with a -5 turnover margin in the game covers as a favorite, like Houston last night?

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xT9IgkHfeOYv2ssK3K" width="480" height="327" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a rel="nofollow" href="https://giphy.com/gifs/what-japan-surprise-xT9IgkHfeOYv2ssK3K">via GIPHY</a></p>

Parasites.

[thomorino]

Wait....
What??

Learn to read dumb shit.

[KVB]

Morono just stop talking, nobody's reading your ignorant shit anyway. YOu are wrong everytime you post.

Just stop and get out of my thread already.

Who at SBR has less of a clue than Morono?

Who????

[thomorino]

Morono just stop talking, nobody's reading your ignorant shit anyway. YOu are wrong everytime you post.

Just stop and get out of my thread already.

Who at SBR has less of a clue than Morono?

Who????

You just responded to a post you said you didn’t read. Take your meds dumb shit.

[thomorino]

Kvb the coward still afraid to post or track so he just post mentally ill trash all day and tries to cover it up with 10 pages of cut and pasted charts a 2 year old could put up.

[cincinnatikid513]

saloon

[Buckandadime]

Except that means nothing since the Yankees rested starters all year, you are a dumb shit.

Wait....
What??

Learn to read dumb shit.

I did read what you posted..
NYY rested starting pitching all year??
As opposed to what?
A full regular season of play?
No starting pitchers on the roster?
An outlet for the farm team?
It was a shortened season moron..
No teams SP had regular season numbers even if you prorate it for the shortened season..
So again..

Wait...
What??

[KVB]

Let's talk Totals.

It's tough for me to go into this one without revealing too much but let me try.

We have two teams with winning records here, which isn't uncommon in the playoffs and in fact increases the overall percentage of times this spot occurs vs. the regular season. But regular season or not, when the stacking percentages forecast, to a 10th of a point, shows less than 8 points with teams making this record threshold, we get a further adjustment to the forecast.

With that in place, we also see an average line error that is very low, even compared to the book, which is something we don't really even judge in baseball totals but we can and do here.

My non-predictive public gauge shows a 5 point game but at this time that is not in line with information I get from contacts around the world. As I put together a picture of where the public is, and right now it's on the OVER, then we look to develop our probabilities.

The stacking forecast and others in line with sharp performance show a 7-5 to 8 point game and I believe the intenet is to sideline some groups of bettors for this Total. When we get this situation, the indication is to the UNDER.

Between the forecasts and spots we can get an edge here with an UNDER bet with a contrarian taste to it. While we don't use the non predictive public gauge to make decisions, I have to point to it and point out that we simply need more information to confirm a position here. Even if the line drops to 7, the information gained makes it worth the loss in value as the risk becomes the push at 7.

We can't determine edge without considering the number and a 7 point line with a plus price or reduced price will be acceptable compared to a 7.5 line with a price of -113 or -115 or more.

This is when we watch both the line, across certain market leading books, and our information to see if we get a trigger.

[KVB]

I did read what you posted..
NYY rested starting pitching all year??
As opposed to what?
A full regular season of play?
No starting pitchers on the roster?
An outlet for the farm team?
It was a shortened season moron..
No teams SP had regular season numbers even if you prorate it for the shortened season..
So again..

Wait...
What??

He's lost and confused. Triggered.

This thread should be moved.

[KVB]

saloon

LMAO, where ya been Cinci?

Morono got up this morning and bumped a thread from week 3 to tell the Forum that it's not week 3 anymore.

The campaign to get these threads out of PT has begun.

[Buckandadime]

Let's talk Totals.

It's tough for me to go into this one without revealing too much but let me try.

We have two teams with winning records here, which isn't uncommon in the playoffs and in fact increases the overall percentage of times this spot occurs vs. the regular season. But regular season or not, when the stacking percentages forecast, to a 10th of a point, shows less than 8 points with teams making this record threshold, we get a further adjustment to the forecast.

With that in place, we also see an average line error that is very low, even compared to the book, which is something we don't really even judge in baseball totals but we can and do here.

My non-predictive public gauge shows a 5 point game but at this time that is not in line with information I get from contacts around the world. As I put together a picture of where the public is, and right now it's on the OVER, then we look to develop our probabilities.

The stacking forecast and others in line with sharp performance show a 7-5 to 8 point game and I believe the intenet is to sideline some groups of bettors for this Total. When we get this situation, the indication is to the UNDER.

Between the forecasts and spots we can get an edge here with an UNDER bet with a contrarian taste to it. While we don't use the non predictive public gauge to make decisions, I have to point to it and point out that we simply need more information to confirm a position here. Even if the line drops to 7, the information gained makes it worth the loss in value as the risk becomes the push at 7.

We can't determine edge without considering the number and a 7 point line with a plus price or reduced price will be acceptable compared to a 7.5 line with a price of -113 or -115 or more.

This is when we watch both the line, across certain market leading books, and our information to see if we get a trigger.

I think I follow your line of thinking here..
>-110 is a deathtrap especially playing totals unless the model is sublime..
How far under the line does your indicator have to be to force more than a casual glance?
In this instance its 2 below opening line..

[lakerboy]

-15.5 units

lots of bad beats early

Colts -2.5 - this was posted in last weeks thread, Rivers is playing well and the Colts running game has been fine even with Mack out, Cleveland’s defense has been garbage other than carter and the colts offensive line is strong. Cleveland’s offense has looked good against the Bengals and an injured Cowboys defense, the Colts defense is much better than that.

Atlanta-Carolina over 53.5 - Atlanta has cluster injuries in the secondary and their offense is still strong at home, Carolinas defense has been garbage.

Saints -8 - The Saints have adjusted their offense without Thomas and might get him back, the Chargers defense couldn’t get stops against a beat up Tampa offense. Sanders looks to be integrated now in the Saints passing game.

Tampa Bay -4.5 - With Cohen our the Bears options are limited and Tampa Bays run defense is strong. Ariana and Brady should be ready even on a short week, Tampa Bays offensive line is playing well.

Bucs lost and you got beaten on the line

Saints are-7.5

The total is still 53.5

Colts are pk now so you got beaten on that line badly. I'm waiting for you to pick one side in early betting where the line moves in you favor.

[KVB]

I think I follow your line of thinking here..
>-110 is a deathtrap especially playing totals unless the model is sublime..
How far under the line does your indicator have to be to force more than a casual glance?
In this instance its 2 below opening line..

Remember, the public gauge has a 5 point line, I don't really use that to make thresholds and it's non predicitve.

The original forecast shows 7.75 runs but all I need to work with here is any discrepency. I'm factoring any discprepency aginst the market when judging the results in THIS SPOT I am describing specfically.

The final adjustment is a little fluid becuase I am using a rating generated by all these different sources to make that market adjsutment.

So it doesn't have to be a full point or more against the market and I currently have that game adjusted down to 6.7 runs.

It's rising because some info I am getting is changing and in line with that I think we see less pressure on the UNDER in the marketplace. I don't think this line is going to 7 and we might even see pressure on the OVER.

Like I said, at 7.5 they basically sideline bettors so anything to generate any action at this number will be done. We might even see a plus number on the UNDER as we approach the last hour of trading.

That last hour will be telling and it's possible just don't get enough of an adjustment for the UNDER play.

That's why I haven't pulled the trigger. I want to see the market and confirm some information first.

[Buckandadime]

Remember, the public gauge has a 5 point line, I don't really use that to make thresholds and it's non predicitve.

The original forecast shows 7.75 runs but all I need to work with here is any discrepency. I'm factoring any discprepency aginst the market when judging the results in THIS SPOT I am describing specfically.

The final adjustment is a little fluid becuase I am using a rating generated by all these different sources to make that market adjsutment.

So it doesn't have to be a full point or more against the market and I currently have that game adjusted down to 6.7 runs.

It's rising because some info I am getting is changing and in line with that I think we see less pressure on the UNDER in the marketplace. I don't think this line is going to 7 and we might even see pressure on the OVER.

Like I said, at 7.5 they basically sideline bettors so anything to generate any action at this number will be done. We might even see a plus number on the UNDER as we approach the last hour of trading.

That last hour will be telling and it's possible just don't get enough of an adjustment for the UNDER play.

That's why I haven't pulled the trigger. I want to see the market and confirm some information first.

Alright...
I believe you may be right on the pressure on the over and possible +/EV # on the under here..
If that happens, it will fall in line for you..
Question..
Do you find it harder or easier when there is only one game as opposed to a full schedule?
My problem is that even though its a numbers game, I desperately try to find an edge when there may not be one just because its the only game on the schedule..
Not always but more often than not..

[firedawg]

What's the fade tonight mushy ?

[thomorino]

saloon

I did read what you posted..
NYY rested starting pitching all year??
As opposed to what?
A full regular season of play?
No starting pitchers on the roster?
An outlet for the farm team?
It was a shortened season moron..
No teams SP had regular season numbers even if you prorate it for the shortened season..
So again..

Wait...
What??

Let's talk Totals.

It's tough for me to go into this one without revealing too much but let me try.

We have two teams with winning records here, which isn't uncommon in the playoffs and in fact increases the overall percentage of times this spot occurs vs. the regular season. But regular season or not, when the stacking percentages forecast, to a 10th of a point, shows less than 8 points with teams making this record threshold, we get a further adjustment to the forecast.

With that in place, we also see an average line error that is very low, even compared to the book, which is something we don't really even judge in baseball totals but we can and do here.

My non-predictive public gauge shows a 5 point game but at this time that is not in line with information I get from contacts around the world. As I put together a picture of where the public is, and right now it's on the OVER, then we look to develop our probabilities.

The stacking forecast and others in line with sharp performance show a 7-5 to 8 point game and I believe the intenet is to sideline some groups of bettors for this Total. When we get this situation, the indication is to the UNDER.

Between the forecasts and spots we can get an edge here with an UNDER bet with a contrarian taste to it. While we don't use the non predictive public gauge to make decisions, I have to point to it and point out that we simply need more information to confirm a position here. Even if the line drops to 7, the information gained makes it worth the loss in value as the risk becomes the push at 7.

We can't determine edge without considering the number and a 7 point line with a plus price or reduced price will be acceptable compared to a 7.5 line with a price of -113 or -115 or more.

This is when we watch both the line, across certain market leading books, and our information to see if we get a trigger.

He's lost and confused. Triggered.

This thread should be moved.

LMAO, where ya been Cinci?

Morono got up this morning and bumped a thread from week 3 to tell the Forum that it's not week 3 anymore.

The campaign to get these threads out of PT has begun.

I think I follow your line of thinking here..
>-110 is a deathtrap especially playing totals unless the model is sublime..
How far under the line does your indicator have to be to force more than a casual glance?
In this instance its 2 below opening line..

Bucs lost and you got beaten on the line

Saints are-7.5

The total is still 53.5

Colts are pk now so you got beaten on that line badly. I'm waiting for you to pick one side in early betting where the line moves in you favor.

Remember, the public gauge has a 5 point line, I don't really use that to make thresholds and it's non predicitve.

The original forecast shows 7.75 runs but all I need to work with here is any discrepency. I'm factoring any discprepency aginst the market when judging the results in THIS SPOT I am describing specfically.

The final adjustment is a little fluid becuase I am using a rating generated by all these different sources to make that market adjsutment.

So it doesn't have to be a full point or more against the market and I currently have that game adjusted down to 6.7 runs.

It's rising because some info I am getting is changing and in line with that I think we see less pressure on the UNDER in the marketplace. I don't think this line is going to 7 and we might even see pressure on the OVER.

Like I said, at 7.5 they basically sideline bettors so anything to generate any action at this number will be done. We might even see a plus number on the UNDER as we approach the last hour of trading.

That last hour will be telling and it's possible just don't get enough of an adjustment for the UNDER play.

That's why I haven't pulled the trigger. I want to see the market and confirm some information first.

Alright...
I believe you may be right on the pressure on the over and possible +/EV # on the under here..
If that happens, it will fall in line for you..
Question..
Do you find it harder or easier when there is only one game as opposed to a full schedule?
My problem is that even though its a numbers game, I desperately try to find an edge when there may not be one just because its the only game on the schedule..
Not always but more often than not..

Parasites. I’ll talk really slowly so you get it. The Yankees rested key starters, such as judge and Stanton all year, so modeling based on regular season data is stupid. Dumb shits.

[thomorino]

Bucs lost and you got beaten on the line

Saints are-7.5

The total is still 53.5

Colts are pk now so you got beaten on that line badly. I'm waiting for you to pick one side in early betting where the line moves in you favor.

I don’t give a shit, the nfl is a pick the winner league 82% of the time, line movement that isn’t over key numbers, such as the colts-browns line, matters about 1 percent of the time and no one know here the line will move anyway.

[thomorino]

What's the fade tonight mushy ?

Get lost dumb shit.

[Buckandadime]

Parasites. I’ll talk really slowly so you get it. The Yankees rested key starters, such as judge and Stanton all year, so modeling based on regular season data is stupid. Dumb shits.

Unless you are just too stipud to adjust for key injuries.. ( not coach resting the player)..

[Buckandadime]

I don’t give a shit, the nfl is a pick the winner league 82% of the time, line movement that isn’t over key numbers, such as the colts-browns line, matters about 1 percent of the time and no one know here the line will move anyway.

So, you can't win even with an 82% advantage?

[thomorino]

Unless you are just too stipud to adjust for key injuries.. ( not coach resting the player)..

There’s no way to that since the rested players such as Stanton played very few regular season games dumb shit.

[thomorino]

So, you can't win even with an 82% advantage?

I’m saying the spread is irrelevant 82% of the time in the NFL dumb shit.

[KVB]

Alright...
I believe you may be right on the pressure on the over and possible +/EV # on the under here..
If that happens, it will fall in line for you..
Question..
Do you find it harder or easier when there is only one game as opposed to a full schedule?
My problem is that even though its a numbers game, I desperately try to find an edge when there may not be one just because its the only game on the schedule..
Not always but more often than not..

Always prefer a full schedule, except for those times the few games get so much action everything makes sense.

So it kind of depends. For example, mid week Maction is good with just one or a couple games a night, it's different than the slate on a saturday.

I just stick with metrics, that helps us avoid forcing plays. In fact, I'm more likely to by a bet I really don't like than force myself to like a bet.

I have no new info on the MLB Total right now.

[Buckandadime]

I’m saying the spread is irrelevant 82% of the time in the NFL dumb shit.

What a moron..
So by your numbers, , even with an 82% advantage, you still can't pick winners..

[thomorino]

What a moron..
So by your numbers, , even with an 82% advantage, you still can't pick winners..

You are the dumbest of the dumb. You don’t even understand what I’m saying dumb shit.

[thomorino]

Always prefer a full schedule, except for those times the few games get so much action everything makes sense.

So it kind of depends. For example, mid week Maction is good with just one or a couple games a night, it's different than the slate on a saturday.

I just stick with metrics, that helps us avoid forcing plays. In fact, I'm more likely to by a bet I really don't like than force myself to like a bet.

I have no new info on the MLB Total right now.

You are a mentally I’ll parasite.

[Buckandadime]

You are the dumbest of the dumb. You don’t even understand what I’m saying dumb shit.

[thomorino]

Always prefer a full schedule, except for those times the few games get so much action everything makes sense.

So it kind of depends. For example, mid week Maction is good with just one or a couple games a night, it's different than the slate on a saturday.

I just stick with metrics, that helps us avoid forcing plays. In fact, I'm more likely to by a bet I really don't like than force myself to like a bet.

I have no new info on the MLB Total right now.

What a moron..
So by your numbers, , even with an 82% advantage, you still can't pick winners..

2 dumb shits.

[KVB]