Best bets for PGA Tour Safeway Open ⛳
Best bets for PGA Tour Safeway Open
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Dustin Johnson has won the FedEx Cup, but we aren't finished with golf -- far from it, in fact.
Next weekend is the rescheduled U.S. Open, but before that is the Safeway Open in Napa, California, this week.
Where does the smart money lie? What bets and props are worth a look?
Betting expert Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Brendan Steele 22-1
Marks: To say Steele has a feel for Silverado would be an understatement. Two of his three victories on tour have come here (2017 and 2018), which tells you his game fits this course to a tee. He is tied for 19th in par-4 scoring and ranks 16th in strokes gained on approach in 2020. Steele has been playing well since the tour's pandemic pause and has made seven consecutive cuts heading into this week's tourney.
Joel Dahmen 25-1
Kezirian: Dahmen has yet to notch his first career PGA Tour win but is constantly mentioned as a guy who is knocking on the door, even at age 32. This pick revolves around recent form, having placed top-20 in three of the past four tournaments, including the PGA Championship. Dahmen also has some missed cuts sprinkled in this summer, but he can hang with anyone in this particular field. He ranks 29th in shots gained off the tee on the tour this season and 44th in shots gained on approach shots. Putting is a weakness, ranking 120th this season, but past Safeway Open winners have been able to hoist the trophy with modest performances on the green.
Harold Varner III 30-1
Kezirian: His name has popped up a few times during the pandemic, and for good reason. The 30-year-old either held or flirted with a first-round lead a few times, matching the buzz he has carried as he continues to search for his first career PGA Tour win. Can he finally break through this weekend? He has performed relatively well at this particular tournament, finishing in the top 20 three of the five times he has played the Safeway Open. That includes each of the past two seasons. In terms of recent form, he has missed four of the past eight cuts but does rank 17th this season in shots gained from tee to green, and that's good for second in this field because nearly all ahead of him in that list are not participating in Napa. The flatstick has plagued him, as he ranks 141st on strokes gained putting, but, as I mentioned with Dahmen, that might not be a critical factor here. At 30-1, I'll take a shot ... and I can't blame anyone for grabbing a piece of +163 to finish top 20.
Prop bets
Harold Varner III top-5 finish (+650 at DraftKings)
Marks: Varner has been a stud at Safeway the past five years, finishing in the top 20 three times. Silverado is not a long course, therefore HV3 will be reaching for his wedges often, which is an advantage considering he is one of the best ball strikers on tour. Not a lot of big names are teeing it up this week, so if Varner's putter can make a strong appearance, on poa annua greens, the door will be wide open for a top-5 finish.
Cameron Tringale top-10 finish (+550 at DK); Tringale (-110) over Carlos Ortiz (-110)
Marks: When researching the metrics needed to score well at Silverado, Tringale's name kept surfacing. He ranks 24th in par-4 scoring, eighth in strokes gained on approach and 14th in scrambling this season. Scrambling will be needed this weekend. It's difficult hitting the greens from the rough, which happens frequently on this track because of the narrow fairways.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Dustin Johnson has won the FedEx Cup, but we aren't finished with golf -- far from it, in fact.
Next weekend is the rescheduled U.S. Open, but before that is the Safeway Open in Napa, California, this week.
Where does the smart money lie? What bets and props are worth a look?
Betting expert Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Brendan Steele 22-1
Marks: To say Steele has a feel for Silverado would be an understatement. Two of his three victories on tour have come here (2017 and 2018), which tells you his game fits this course to a tee. He is tied for 19th in par-4 scoring and ranks 16th in strokes gained on approach in 2020. Steele has been playing well since the tour's pandemic pause and has made seven consecutive cuts heading into this week's tourney.
Joel Dahmen 25-1
Kezirian: Dahmen has yet to notch his first career PGA Tour win but is constantly mentioned as a guy who is knocking on the door, even at age 32. This pick revolves around recent form, having placed top-20 in three of the past four tournaments, including the PGA Championship. Dahmen also has some missed cuts sprinkled in this summer, but he can hang with anyone in this particular field. He ranks 29th in shots gained off the tee on the tour this season and 44th in shots gained on approach shots. Putting is a weakness, ranking 120th this season, but past Safeway Open winners have been able to hoist the trophy with modest performances on the green.
Harold Varner III 30-1
Kezirian: His name has popped up a few times during the pandemic, and for good reason. The 30-year-old either held or flirted with a first-round lead a few times, matching the buzz he has carried as he continues to search for his first career PGA Tour win. Can he finally break through this weekend? He has performed relatively well at this particular tournament, finishing in the top 20 three of the five times he has played the Safeway Open. That includes each of the past two seasons. In terms of recent form, he has missed four of the past eight cuts but does rank 17th this season in shots gained from tee to green, and that's good for second in this field because nearly all ahead of him in that list are not participating in Napa. The flatstick has plagued him, as he ranks 141st on strokes gained putting, but, as I mentioned with Dahmen, that might not be a critical factor here. At 30-1, I'll take a shot ... and I can't blame anyone for grabbing a piece of +163 to finish top 20.
Prop bets
Harold Varner III top-5 finish (+650 at DraftKings)
Marks: Varner has been a stud at Safeway the past five years, finishing in the top 20 three times. Silverado is not a long course, therefore HV3 will be reaching for his wedges often, which is an advantage considering he is one of the best ball strikers on tour. Not a lot of big names are teeing it up this week, so if Varner's putter can make a strong appearance, on poa annua greens, the door will be wide open for a top-5 finish.
Cameron Tringale top-10 finish (+550 at DK); Tringale (-110) over Carlos Ortiz (-110)
Marks: When researching the metrics needed to score well at Silverado, Tringale's name kept surfacing. He ranks 24th in par-4 scoring, eighth in strokes gained on approach and 14th in scrambling this season. Scrambling will be needed this weekend. It's difficult hitting the greens from the rough, which happens frequently on this track because of the narrow fairways.
