Chi/Cle First Five under. Watch this Cease and Civale kids!

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  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63172

    #1
    Chi/Cle First Five under. Watch this Cease and Civale kids!
    Game 1 first five under 5.5 big play

    Dylan Cease fits the profile of a high pedigree, great stuff, great minor league performance prospect that struggled mightly at times in his first big league appearances, and seems to show great potential to make some tweaks.

    Cease was above slot HS draft pick by Theo Epstein, who took a flyer on his 100 mph fastball even though Cease was already slated to have tommy john surgery. In the sox organization he put up video game numbers at times. He struggled at the big league level as his 90 percentile high velocity high spin rate fast ball, had a bottom 10% of the league spin axis and was super straight and hittable. I don't have much evidence of him making major tweaks in the off season to correct that, other than a few articles about him changing his pitching motion to correct some over rotation issues to get better arm side movement on his 4 seamer that averaged 96.4 MPH last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that he will start to live up to some of his hype this year, despite not being a big fan of pitching coach Don Cooper. This guy's stuff is just too good to be a +5 era. he did have a very strong sept finish to his year, with a 3.00 era and .211 opposing BA. I think he has a chance of being under valued for a few starts this year. But i'll only put a small play on the Sox ml.


    Aaron Civale for the Cleveland indigenous people also has great stuff, not a high velocity fastball but great movement. He's not an under the radar guy though, as he had a great minor league run through the system and in 10 games last year at the big league level had a 2.34 era and a 1.04 whip .216 batting avg against, this coming after striking out the side in his big league inning.

    Civale has 6 freaking pitches. His cutter is outstanding with 5.5 inches of horizontal break (avg is 2 inches) only 6 other pitchers had better movement on their cutters in all of baseball.

    His fastball spin rate is in the 85th percentile with 2,805 rpms his curve and slider are the really inriguing pitches though. His curve has an avg of 2,930 rpms which puts him in the 95th percentile, only 8 pitchers had a better avg drop on their curveballs then Civale's 67.7 inches

    only 2 hitters were able to actually get a hit off his equally impressive slider. All in all major league hitters weren't getting very solid contact on him, with an average exit velocity of 86.6 and a tiny barrel rate of 2.4%. He also has very good control.

    I think people are aware of this kid by and large and the lines won't be too sneaky, but there is a chance the market will be a little behind on his full potential and he'll have some nice underdog lines in the first few weeks of the season.


    I think only one of these guys needs to be very good today to stay under the 5.5 total and with the wind blowing in 11 mph I feel a little better about the power in the lineups.
  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63172

    #2
    FF under moved from under 5.5 +100 to under 5 -105

    If I hadnt locked it in already my bet size would have been cut in half at those numbers.
    Comment
    • gauchojake
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 09-17-10
      • 34116

      #3
      this play is dead

      Comment
      • pimike
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 03-23-08
        • 37140

        #4
        Originally posted by Chi_archie
        FF under moved from under 5.5 +100 to under 5 -105

        If I hadnt locked it in already my bet size would have been cut in half at those numbers.
        So we got a big play or no?


        Comment
        • Chi_archie
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-22-08
          • 63172

          #5
          Actually I see huge discrepancies there are some under 6's available I'm going to add on at intertops and if anyone has youwager or SIA I'd recommend a big play on under 6
          Comment
          • USCPHILLYGUY
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-15-12
            • 21746

            #6
            Archie I’m going to somewhat tail you and take 0 runs scored in 1st inning at +100
            Comment
            • DroopyDog
              SBR MVP
              • 11-03-16
              • 1255

              #7
              Civale is nails. Great command.
              Comment
              • Chi_archie
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-22-08
                • 63172

                #8
                Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY
                Archie I’m going to somewhat tail you and take 0 runs scored in 1st inning at +100

                Good luck I stopped with first inning unders. You get two top of the lineups and the first inning is the biggest bomb inning for a starter
                Comment
                • USCPHILLYGUY
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-15-12
                  • 21746

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Chi_archie
                  Good luck I stopped with first inning unders. You get two top of the lineups and the first inning is the biggest bomb inning for a starter
                  God dammit! Was weird. The odds were +100 no runs. +390 1 run & +190 2 or more runs. Really liked the 2 or more
                  Comment
                  • dirtycash66
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-13-12
                    • 2958

                    #10
                    Not looking good. I tailed also. This might be my last MLB bet, this sport is too fking unpredictable, NBA is better
                    Comment
                    • Chi_archie
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-22-08
                      • 63172

                      #11
                      Not liking the vibes on this game. Let's yank cease now and hope the bullpen can give us 3 scoreless
                      Comment
                      • Twisted_One
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 08-24-10
                        • 301

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Chi_archie
                        Not liking the vibes on this game. Let's yank cease now and hope the bullpen can give us 3 scoreless
                        was just thinkin the same fkin thing GET HIM OUT!!!! Hopefully he settles in. I was bored. I stopped with the FF awhile ago. They kill me. SO much for settling in. And they are just getting someone up NOW!!!!
                        Comment
                        • Chi_archie
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-22-08
                          • 63172

                          #13
                          Civale throwing WAY more sliders and curves than last year. Hung a slider back over too much of the plate to Anderson though. eager to see his pitch fx numbers after this start and he will prob go in the "bet on" category going forward based on what we've seen today
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            Pressure is on today with RJ /Archie he better win
                            Comment
                            • Twisted_One
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 08-24-10
                              • 301

                              #15
                              a lot of these starters are hanging sliders lately it seems. Well at least it was a quick death, NEXT!
                              GL
                              Comment
                              • dirtycash66
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-13-12
                                • 2958

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                Game 1 first five under 5.5 big play

                                Dylan Cease fits the profile of a high pedigree, great stuff, great minor league performance prospect that struggled mightly at times in his first big league appearances, and seems to show great potential to make some tweaks.

                                Cease was above slot HS draft pick by Theo Epstein, who took a flyer on his 100 mph fastball even though Cease was already slated to have tommy john surgery. In the sox organization he put up video game numbers at times. He struggled at the big league level as his 90 percentile high velocity high spin rate fast ball, had a bottom 10% of the league spin axis and was super straight and hittable. I don't have much evidence of him making major tweaks in the off season to correct that, other than a few articles about him changing his pitching motion to correct some over rotation issues to get better arm side movement on his 4 seamer that averaged 96.4 MPH last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that he will start to live up to some of his hype this year, despite not being a big fan of pitching coach Don Cooper. This guy's stuff is just too good to be a +5 era. he did have a very strong sept finish to his year, with a 3.00 era and .211 opposing BA. I think he has a chance of being under valued for a few starts this year. But i'll only put a small play on the Sox ml.


                                Aaron Civale for the Cleveland indigenous people also has great stuff, not a high velocity fastball but great movement. He's not an under the radar guy though, as he had a great minor league run through the system and in 10 games last year at the big league level had a 2.34 era and a 1.04 whip .216 batting avg against, this coming after striking out the side in his big league inning.

                                Civale has 6 freaking pitches. His cutter is outstanding with 5.5 inches of horizontal break (avg is 2 inches) only 6 other pitchers had better movement on their cutters in all of baseball.

                                His fastball spin rate is in the 85th percentile with 2,805 rpms his curve and slider are the really inriguing pitches though. His curve has an avg of 2,930 rpms which puts him in the 95th percentile, only 8 pitchers had a better avg drop on their curveballs then Civale's 67.7 inches

                                only 2 hitters were able to actually get a hit off his equally impressive slider. All in all major league hitters weren't getting very solid contact on him, with an average exit velocity of 86.6 and a tiny barrel rate of 2.4%. He also has very good control.

                                I think people are aware of this kid by and large and the lines won't be too sneaky, but there is a chance the market will be a little behind on his full potential and he'll have some nice underdog lines in the first few weeks of the season.


                                I think only one of these guys needs to be very good today to stay under the 5.5 total and with the wind blowing in 11 mph I feel a little better about the power in the lineups.
                                all this write up just to lose the wager in the 3rd smh. Not even close
                                Comment
                                • Mac4Lyfe
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-04-09
                                  • 48384

                                  #17
                                  This MLB.tv is the bomb. Incredible stats in real time. Great streams too.
                                  Comment
                                  • Chi_archie
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-22-08
                                    • 63172

                                    #18
                                    Whew, thank you bullpen!
                                    Comment
                                    • Mac4Lyfe
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-04-09
                                      • 48384

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by dirtycash66
                                      all this write up just to lose the wager in the 3rd smh. Not even close
                                      Huh. How did he lose? Too soon man.
                                      Comment
                                      • USCPHILLYGUY
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-15-12
                                        • 21746

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by dirtycash66
                                        all this write up just to lose the wager in the 3rd smh. Not even close


                                        Casher spent his last 20 spot on this game
                                        Comment
                                        • dirtycash66
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-13-12
                                          • 2958

                                          #21
                                          Its coming, just wait for it
                                          Comment
                                          • Mac4Lyfe
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-04-09
                                            • 48384

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by dirtycash66
                                            Its coming, just wait for it
                                            The Hater is strong in you...
                                            Comment
                                            • dirtycash66
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-13-12
                                              • 2958

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                              The Hater is strong in you...
                                              no hate, just mad for tailing this pick
                                              Comment
                                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-04-09
                                                • 48384

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by dirtycash66
                                                no hate, just mad for tailing this pick
                                                That’s gambling bro. You win some, you lose many. The bet still has legs to get out of 2 bases loaded with only 1 out twice.
                                                Comment
                                                • USCPHILLYGUY
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-15-12
                                                  • 21746

                                                  #25
                                                  Come on guy! Just another inning and a half
                                                  Comment
                                                  • USCPHILLYGUY
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-15-12
                                                    • 21746

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY
                                                    Archie I’m going to somewhat tail you and take 0 runs scored in 1st inning at +100
                                                    Casher relax. Lost this wager. Just grab your bootstraps and go on to the next one
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mac4Lyfe
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-04-09
                                                      • 48384

                                                      #27
                                                      Cordero with an 18.0 era. Doh!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mac4Lyfe
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-04-09
                                                        • 48384

                                                        #28
                                                        Bases loaded three straight times. Geez
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Twisted_One
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 08-24-10
                                                          • 301

                                                          #29
                                                          It will be a fkin miracle if this Under 5.5 FF hits. I never EVER get that lucky!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mac4Lyfe
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-04-09
                                                            • 48384

                                                            #30
                                                            Who cares about bases loaded when you knock em all down.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KVB
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 05-29-14
                                                              • 74817

                                                              #31
                                                              Archie with soem good thread starts recently.

                                                              Helping to Make [Keep SBR Great] Again.

                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-04-09
                                                                • 48384

                                                                #32
                                                                This might be trouble.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-04-09
                                                                  • 48384

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Big trouble now...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-04-09
                                                                    • 48384

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Welp... at least it was a nail biter. We pay for the adrenaline rush.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • dirtycash66
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-13-12
                                                                      • 2958

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                                                      Welp... at least it was a nail biter. We pay for the adrenaline rush.
                                                                      I gamble to make money and not for the adrenaline rush
                                                                      Comment
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