TRUMP has 91% chance of winning

cincinnatikid513 · 07-09-20, 05:21 AM

91 pct chance to win and currently +145 odds

sounds like u should bet it all it's a lock

mikejamm · 07-09-20, 05:23 AM

Go fuk yourself and your model puss prediction, asswipe.

stake1 · 07-09-20, 05:50 AM

Trump is a closer

jjgold · 07-09-20, 06:17 AM

Too early

Elections decided the last week before the close

vitterd · 07-09-20, 06:47 AM

Lmao!!! Now this is funny

yahoonino · 07-09-20, 06:56 AM

They said biden is way ahead.i hope not

Chi_archie · 07-09-20, 06:57 AM

In light of this

I see no reason to subject millions of Americans to the risk of contracting coronavirus in voting lines

Can we all agree to revisit this in fall of 2024 and let the country keep humming along for 4 more

darrell74 · 07-09-20, 07:32 AM

Comments here are hilarious

SamsNCharge99 · 07-09-20, 07:42 AM

it's decided, i'm going all in

BrickJames · 07-09-20, 07:48 AM

Its obvious, no one wants liberal idiots in control, they ruin anything the touch.

Normal people are sick of their BS, get ready for 40+ years of Trumps in the white house until they calm the fukk down.

dlowilly · 07-09-20, 07:51 AM

If he gets elected there will be more rioting and looting, maybe a lot more

I would be curious to see how it's handled once the election is decided. Could be not only the gloves come off but the brass knuckles go on.

Mike Huntertz · 07-09-20, 07:55 AM

Middle aged white women will decide and not a lot of them find Trump palatable.

dlowilly · 07-09-20, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Middle aged white women will decide and not a lot of them find Trump palatable.

Oh yeah

They mostly want a creepy Joe type finger banging them and telling them they mean nothing to him 30 years ago and a guy now who looks like the dude who melted in Raiders of the Lost Ark muttering unintelligible gibberish.

Mike Huntertz · 07-09-20, 08:13 AM

WASHINGTON —

President Trump’s storied grip on the white working class is weakening among women, threatening both his reelection prospects and his party’s efforts to improve its standing with female voters.

While working-class men remain among Trump’s most loyal backers, defections among their wives, sisters and daughters are a big part of the president’s recent slide in opinion polls. That gives Democrat Joe Biden a shot at winning a swath of female voters that have long favored the GOP.

White working-class women heavily favored Trump in 2016. But recent polls show they are being driven away by his combative style, his erratic handling of the coronavirus crisis and his effort to quickly reopen the economy despite health risks.

BrickJames · 07-09-20, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Middle aged white women will decide and not a lot of them find Trump palatable.

Thats bullshit, white women want law and order.

They will overwhelmingly vote trump.

Mike Huntertz · 07-09-20, 08:22 AM

We'll see. Polls are just polls....only the election matters.
Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just throwing it out there.

Originally posted by BrickJames

Thats bullshit, white women want law and order.

They will overwhelmingly vote trump.

pavyracer · 07-09-20, 08:25 AM

How is the guy doing that modelled the last elections and had 99% Hillary winning? Is he still in business? I forgot his name.

5mike5 · 07-09-20, 08:36 AM

Chi_archie · 07-09-20, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

We'll see. Polls are just polls....only the election matters.
Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just throwing it out there.

Yeah Polls are imprerfect

But you are presented here with thoughts direct from Brick James's brain cells.

You trying to tell me you are going to completely discount that wisdom as anything less than the definitive end all opinion?

Tanko · 07-09-20, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by BrickJames

Thats bullshit, white women want law and order.

They will overwhelmingly vote trump.

Be careful. Don't get overconfident.

Trump won white women by only 47 to 45 in 2016. It was pretty close and white women HATED Clinton way more than they hated Trump back then.
Unfortunately, fewer white women hate Biden as much so I'd bet the white women vote is a toss up or leaning towards Biden. The press has been hammering on Trump about mysogynistic topics for over 3.5 years. I think it will have an impact the independent white women vote in November.

According to 2016 results Trumps most leveraging base supporters are: White/Over 50/Male/No College Degree.
Sh#t, that describes 90% of SBR posters.

By the way, I am one of them too, except the age part. I think we have a tough path to winning this time unless something crazy happens (e.g. FBI-Clinton e-mails, etc...). I'm looking at hedging some of my early in the year bets, just in case.

dlowilly · 07-09-20, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Tanko

Be careful. Don't get overconfident.

Trump won white women by only 47 to 45 in 2016. It was pretty close and white women HATED Clinton way more than they hated Trump back then.
Unfortunately, fewer white women hate Biden as much so I'd bet the white women vote is a toss up or leaning towards Biden. The press has been hammering on Trump about mysogynistic topics for over 3.5 years. I think it will have an impact the independent white women vote in November.

According to 2016 results Trumps most leveraging base supporters are: White/Over 50/Male/No College Degree.
Sh#t, that describes 90% of SBR posters.

By the way, I am one of them too, except the age part. I think we have a tough path to winning this time unless something crazy happens (e.g. FBI-Clinton e-mails, etc...). I'm looking at hedging some of my early in the year bets, just in case.

Kanye and his wife Kim K are the Trojan Hoes

d2bets · 07-09-20, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by dlowilly

according to this prediction model:

Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

The model has predicted 5 out of the last six elections correctly, and has selected the winner of the last 25 out of 27 elections since the primaries were first introduced in 1912. The model undoubtedly has been back tested which suggests a bit of data mining so not as powerful of an indication as if it had actually been used since 1912, but still this and Kanye has got to have the ladies on the left ruining their panties.

Would that guy (or anyone) wager 900 to win 100 on Trump? No? He doesn't believe what he says.

Hot Jerry · 07-09-20, 09:04 AM

91 % chance of winning what ?? The 1st. place medal of being the WORST president EVER !!

BrickJames · 07-09-20, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Would that guy (or anyone) wager 900 to win 100 on Trump? No? He doesn't believe what he says.

I wouldn't wager -900 on anything, its a dumb bet. To much rick for no reward.

I will pound the shit out of trump +145 though.

pablo222 · 07-09-20, 09:30 AM

Did this guy figure the seaweed thread into his model?

Tanko · 07-09-20, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by pablo222

did this guy figure the seaweed thread into his model?

this!

JohnGalt2341 · 07-09-20, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by cincinnatikid513

91 pct chance to win and currently +145 odds

sounds like u should bet it all it's a lock

Originally posted by d2bets

Would that guy (or anyone) wager 900 to win 100 on Trump? No? He doesn't believe what he says.

Looks like somebody forgot to tell the Sportsbooks. If anyone truly believed that Trump had a 91% chance of winning there would be a 500 page thread about Trump's +145 price right now. But there's not. You would think Trump supporters would be posting screen shots of their massive wagers on Trump. But they're not. I wonder why that is? If I thought I had a 91% chance of more than doubling my money in less than 4 months time I would take it in a heartbeat. I would think Trump supporters would do the same. Even if Trump's chances are only 50%... +145 is STILL a fantastic bargain.

gauchojake · 07-09-20, 09:59 AM

I have a model that predicts 91% in the NFL.

PAULYPOKER · 07-09-20, 10:01 AM

We'll all be dead or at least braindead by November 3rd from insanity COVID and an all out race war.

dlowilly · 07-09-20, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

Looks like somebody forgot to tell the Sportsbooks. If anyone truly believed that Trump had a 91% chance of winning there would be a 500 page thread about Trump's +145 price right now. But there's not. You would think Trump supporters would be posting screen shots of their massive wagers on Trump. But they're not. I wonder why that is? If I thought I had a 91% chance of more than doubling my money in less than 4 months time I would take it in a heartbeat. I would think Trump supporters would do the same. Even if Trump's chances are only 50%... +145 is STILL a fantastic bargain.

Sportsbooks have zero clue how to cap a Presidential election. Zero. Way too many variables and the equivalent of assessing about 10000 players. They just go by polling and the public's appetite.

PAULYPOKER · 07-09-20, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

it's decided, i'm going all in

Sammy,are you all in on the Freddie Mercury look?

JohnGalt2341 · 07-09-20, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by dlowilly

Sportsbooks have zero clue how to cap a Presidential election. Zero. Way too many variables and the equivalent of assessing about 10000 players. They just go by polling and the public's appetite.

I don't believe this is true because there are some states where Trump is losing in the polls but he's favored at the Sportsbooks.

But let's just assume that you are correct. If your theory is true.... then everyone should just bet on the underdog in every election. Why is it that I don't see more supporters of Trump betting on him?

PAULYPOKER · 07-09-20, 10:11 AM

I heard they're having non disclosed limits on Trump.

dlowilly · 07-09-20, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

I don't believe this is true because there are some states where Trump is losing in the polls but he's favored at the Sportsbooks.

But let's just assume that you are correct. If your theory is true.... then everyone should just bet on the underdog in every election. Why is it that I don't see more supporters of Trump betting on him?

I think you will once the election gets closer. Why tie up money until November?