2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[RudyRuetigger]

This is why I feel Trump has a lot of value. It feels like 2016 again. Except the dems actually managed to come up with a worse candidate than Hilary.
Trump was underestimated in 2016 big time. I would be careful making the same mistake.
By the way, I'm not a repub or a dem. Just trying to objectively call it the way I see it.

we will see if the debates actually happen

most real independents will see joe biden is brain dead if they do take place...aside from "independents" like galt and BkofAma

[ace7550]

Justbet Trump +150
Bovada Biden -140
Free money. Just gotta wait a few months for it.

[JohnGalt2341]

Here's a couple more prop bets at 5Dimes that I would think Trump followers would be interested in.

2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions
graded based on the popular vote from each entire state
Tue 11/3		901 Trump wins every state he won in 2016		+550
8:00PM		902 Trump loses a state he won in 2016		-1050
graded based on the popular vote from each entire state
Tue 11/3		903 Trump loses every state he lost in 2016		-280
8:00PM		904 Trump wins a state he lost in 2016		+200

[JohnGalt2341]

Trump was at -130 for North Carolina 3 days ago. Now the Dems are at -145.

graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina		+105
8:00AM		568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina		-145

[Itsamazing777]

Trump was at -130 for North Carolina 3 days ago. Now the Dems are at -145.

graded based on popular vote
Tue 11/3		567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina		+105
8:00AM		568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina		-145

What happened in north Carolina to warrant that change?
Or is it just bs by oddsmakers

[JohnGalt2341]

What happened in north Carolina to warrant that change?
Or is it just bs by oddsmakers

Not sure, Georgia moved from -190 to -140.as well.

Tue 11/3		521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia		-140
8:00AM		522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia		+100

[JohnGalt2341]

And Iowa moved from -210 to -150

Tue 11/3		531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa		-150
8:00AM		532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa		+110

[Mike Huntertz]

Seems to be a trend here????

[PromiseLand]

What happened in north Carolina to warrant that change?
Or is it just bs by oddsmakers

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/

[Mike Huntertz]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/

Great site.
I'm thinking of adding to Biden bet.
Dems will win Calif and New York, 7% lead in Florida, Penn. and Illinois, Texas is a coin toss,
Those are the top 6 richest delegate states and Trump isn't leading in any of them!

[vitterd]

Great site.
I'm thinking of adding to Biden bet.
Dems will win Calif and New York, 7% lead in Florida, Penn. and Illinois, Texas is a coin toss,
Those are the top 6 richest delegate states and Trump isn't leading in any of them!

Biden speech today was very helpful. Buried Trump and shows he has no issues speaking at all.

[ace7550]

I hope these odds get even more volatile as the election gets closer. Could make for some nice easy arbitrage.

[Itsamazing777]

Great site.
I'm thinking of adding to Biden bet.
Dems will win Calif and New York, 7% lead in Florida, Penn. and Illinois, Texas is a coin toss,
Those are the top 6 richest delegate states and Trump isn't leading in any of them!

Hillary -700 is all you need to know....

[Mike Huntertz]

Hillary -700 is all you need to know....

How often does a -700 favorite lose in any sport....and this is a sport???
Sure it happens and can again again.
The Books don't put out lines that they think are false or they'd get killed.
Trump is a substantial dog and it's getting worse.

[pavyracer]

How often does a -700 favorite lose in any sport....and this is a sport???
Sure it happens and can again again.
The Books don't put out lines that they think are false or they'd get killed.
Trump is a substantial dog and it's getting worse.

At least 3-4 times per week in NBA.

[vitterd]

Hillary -700 is all you need to know....

Keep thinking that is relevant in 2020. You are a smacked ass.

[Mike Huntertz]

At least 3-4 times per week in NBA.

30 NBA teams= 15 games max., 3 dogs -300 or worse win (3 of 15) is 20%

The chart shows 17.2% for -300.....so -700 dogs win at a much lower rate.

I know you just threw it out. It was fun to look at the dog/fav charts....felt like sports.

Everyone knows dogs win just not as much as the fav.

+100 to +150	45%	+$447
+151 to +200	35%	-$4,613
+201 to +250	27.5%	-$6,662
+251 to +300	27.4%	+$1,350
+301 and more	17.2%	+$5,433

[RudyRuetigger]

30 NBA teams= 15 games max., 3 dogs -300 or worse win (3 of 15) is 20%

The chart shows 17.2% for -300.....so -700 dogs win at a much lower rate.

I know you just threw it out. It was fun to look at the dog/fav charts....felt like sports.

Everyone knows dogs win just not as much as the fav.

+100 to +150	45%	+$447
+151 to +200	35%	-$4,613
+201 to +250	27.5%	-$6,662
+251 to +300	27.4%	+$1,350
+301 and more	17.2%	+$5,433

great job sherlock

any info on neutral sites?

[pavyracer]

30 NBA teams= 15 games max., 3 dogs -300 or worse win (3 of 15) is 20%

The chart shows 17.2% for -300.....so -700 dogs win at a much lower rate.

I know you just threw it out. It was fun to look at the dog/fav charts....felt like sports.
Everyone knows dogs win just not as much as the fav.

+100 to +150	45%	+$447
+151 to +200	35%	-$4,613
+201 to +250	27.5%	-$6,662
+251 to +300	27.4%	+$1,350
+301 and more	17.2%	+$5,433

I think I said per week. I think they play more than 20 games total every week.

Good research!

[Mike Huntertz]

I think I said per week. I think they play more than 20 games total every week.

Good research!

All good pavy, gawd I miss researching sports......soon I hope.
Stay safe.

[ace7550]

How often does a -700 favorite lose in any sport....and this is a sport???
Sure it happens and can again again.
The Books don't put out lines that they think are false or they'd get killed.
Trump is a substantial dog and it's getting worse.

A sportsbook puts out the opening line but then it's wagers being placed that move the line. The books don't care how wrong the odds are, just as long as an equal amount of money/liability is on either side. They just wanna make their percentage (juice).

[JohnGalt2341]

Update July 19th

Trumps price continues to drop. The No Juice line is at +/- 165. That's about 62% Biden and 38% Trump. One of three things is possible here.

1. This line is sharp. I wouldn't touch this line with a ten foot pole.

2. The sportsbooks are WRONG. Trump should be a favorite!

3. This is a terrific deal we're getting on Biden here. He'll be over -190 in no time.

If the sportsbooks are wrong as some of you will claim.. then I would think that you would be salivating over these prices. You can get Trump for +160 and maybe even better. How come there is not a 100 page thread about this terrific price? We're less than 4 months out here... that's nothing. I wish I could bet against Trump for +160. That would be a hell of a bargain! There would be a 100 page thread for that price if you get bet against him for +160. And this is why I think #2 isn't correct. But nobody has convinced me that #2 IS correct.

Trump's lack of leadership has been completely exposed. He's looking for a hail mary here. I'm sure it's going to have something to do with mail in voting. This is going to be the ugliest election this country has ever seen.

I'm going to make a prediction. By August 1st you'll be able to get Trump for +170 and maybe even better. Probably +200 or more on election day. You're wise to hold out now... but let's see if you have the balls to bet on him on election day... he could be over +250 by then... maybe even more.

[Chi_archie]

What was trump on election day 2016?

[vitterd]

Update July 19th

Trumps price continues to drop. The No Juice line is at +/- 165. That's about 62% Biden and 38% Trump. One of three things is possible here.

1. This line is sharp. I wouldn't touch this line with a ten foot pole.

2. The sportsbooks are WRONG. Trump should be a favorite!

3. This is a terrific deal we're getting on Biden here. He'll be over -190 in no time.

If the sportsbooks are wrong as some of you will claim.. then I would think that you would be salivating over these prices. You can get Trump for +160 and maybe even better. How come there is not a 100 page thread about this terrific price? We're less than 4 months out here... that's nothing. I wish I could bet against Trump for +160. That would be a hell of a bargain! There would be a 100 page thread for that price if you get bet against him for +160. And this is why I think #2 isn't correct. But nobody has convinced me that #2 IS correct.

Trump's lack of leadership has been completely exposed. He's looking for a hail mary here. I'm sure it's going to have something to do with mail in voting. This is going to be the ugliest election this country has ever seen.

I'm going to make a prediction. By August 1st you'll be able to get Trump for +170 and maybe even better. Probably +200 or more on election day. You're wise to hold out now... but let's see if you have the balls to bet on him on election day... he could be over +250 by then... maybe even more.

Trump is gonna try every trick in the book. The only way he stays out of prison is to win in 2020. Vance will have the taxes and it shows all the fraud committed by Donnie. You’re gonna see vaccine, mail in, and all kinds of Hail Marys from trump coming in the next few months. Biden just has to stay the course and he will win easy.

[jt315]

Trump is gonna try every trick in the book. The only way he stays out of prison is to win in 2020. Vance will have the taxes and it shows all the fraud committed by Donnie. You’re gonna see vaccine, mail in, and all kinds of Hail Marys from trump coming in the next few months. Biden just has to stay the course and he will win easy.

I thought Junior and Jared were gonna flip on him you clueless waste .

[JohnGalt2341]

Below are some price changes for the closest 10 states. On the left is the prices from June 26th. The next number is the number of delegates. And the prices with a * is July 19th(today). Keep in mind that if all the big favorites of -350 or more hold up Trump will need 105 delegates or more for him to win.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16 *-145
Iowa -210 6 *-195
North Carolina -130 15 *+105
Ohio -170 18 *-175

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11 *-185
Florida -140 29 *-160
Michigan -295 16 *-300
New Hampshire -270 4 *-320
Pennsylvania -265 20 *-335
Wisconsin -215 10 *-265

Anyone see a trend here? I can't wait to see what Trump has up his sleeve. We don't know for sure what he's going to try to pull out of his ass but we can be sure that he will accuse someone of something that he himself is guilty of. This should be entertaining.

[DwightShrute]

Politicians: Tell people what they want to hear. Swamp. Liars.
Trump: Says what he believes. Pragmatic. Courageous.
MSM: Filled with the dumbest, phoniest and dishonest people in society. A democratic political arm.
Political betting sites: Small limits. They have no idea. Its a loss leader. Pointless numbers that have almost no reflection on what's gonna happen. Lines don't move based on dollars wagered like they do on sports. They move based on feelings and fake polls.

[vitterd]

I thought Junior and Jared were gonna flip on him you clueless waste .

“I call them flippers”. Wait until his fat ass is going to prison. Even Ivanka will flip on the molesting sick bastard.

[d2bets]

What was trump on election day 2016?

About +300 the morning of.

[ace7550]

Update July 19th

Trumps price continues to drop. The No Juice line is at +/- 165. That's about 62% Biden and 38% Trump. One of three things is possible here.

1. This line is sharp. I wouldn't touch this line with a ten foot pole.

2. The sportsbooks are WRONG. Trump should be a favorite!

3. This is a terrific deal we're getting on Biden here. He'll be over -190 in no time.

If the sportsbooks are wrong as some of you will claim.. then I would think that you would be salivating over these prices. You can get Trump for +160 and maybe even better. How come there is not a 100 page thread about this terrific price? We're less than 4 months out here... that's nothing. I wish I could bet against Trump for +160. That would be a hell of a bargain! There would be a 100 page thread for that price if you get bet against him for +160. And this is why I think #2 isn't correct. But nobody has convinced me that #2 IS correct.

Trump's lack of leadership has been completely exposed. He's looking for a hail mary here. I'm sure it's going to have something to do with mail in voting. This is going to be the ugliest election this country has ever seen.

I'm going to make a prediction. By August 1st you'll be able to get Trump for +170 and maybe even better. Probably +200 or more on election day. You're wise to hold out now... but let's see if you have the balls to bet on him on election day... he could be over +250 by then... maybe even more.

Hasn't it been stated quite a few times in this thread that people don't want to lock up their money for a few months just because they think they are getting a good price on Trump?
I don't even like to lock my money up for 2 weeks let alone 4 months.

[vitterd]

Hasn't it been stated quite a few times in this thread that people don't want to lock up their money for a few months just because they think they are getting a good price on Trump?
I don't even like to lock my money up for 2 weeks let alone 4 months.

Save your money. Trump can’t win.

[King Mayan]

Save your money. Trump can’t win.

That’s what they said in 2016. Of course he can win.

[vitterd]

That’s what they said in 2016. Of course he can win.

It’s not 2016. Everything is different. He couldn’t beat OJ this year.

[ace7550]

That’s what they said in 2016. Of course he can win.

Exactly. Repubs sure he will win. Dems saying he has no chance. Same old shit.

[Axman3000]

It’s not 2016. Everything is different. He couldn’t beat OJ this year.

2016 wasn't supposed to be 2016 either and he still won. The fact that he beat Clinton when people were CERTAIN he wouldn't made it "different" also. Like King Mayan said, he can win.