Will Today be the long Awaited PEAK?

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  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63172

    #36
    2806 deaths today.

    That should be the highest



    For the first wave anyways
    Comment
    • JIBBBY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-10-09
      • 83686

      #37
      Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
      I'm happy for your health and also jealous, keep up your routine.
      Why do you take your blood pressure??? Isn't that a test for a possible future heath event?
      Ergo, you do believe in testing for unseen eventualities. That is a good thing.
      Don't throw testing under the bus because it is in the way of how you want things to transpire!
      Stay safe!
      Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

      That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

      I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

      Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..
      Comment
      • lakerboy
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-02-09
        • 94379

        #38
        Originally posted by JIBBBY
        Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

        That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

        I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

        Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..
        High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby
        Comment
        • JIBBBY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-10-09
          • 83686

          #39
          Originally posted by lakerboy
          High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby
          It could be.. My immune system is stacked LB.. I never get sick.. Bring on Corona.. I probably already had it and beat it already and don't even know it.. I have no fear...

          OPEN THE ECONOMY.. Everyone is afraid of this nasty flu that probably will never go away.. Just get it already!!!!
          Comment
          • d2bets
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 08-10-05
            • 39995

            #40
            Originally posted by Brock Landers
            Death not the measure

            New infections are
            Only if the positivity rate goes down. Otherwise new infections is just a byproduct of the level of testing.
            Comment
            • gauchojake
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 09-17-10
              • 34116

              #41
              Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

              Open the economy!!!!
              Comment
              • JIBBBY
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-10-09
                • 83686

                #42
                Originally posted by gauchojake
                Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

                Open the economy!!!!
                Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

                I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .
                Comment
                • gauchojake
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 09-17-10
                  • 34116

                  #43
                  Originally posted by JIBBBY
                  Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

                  I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .
                  Love ya pal.

                  Stay safe
                  Comment
                  • BadNina
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-27-07
                    • 10491

                    #44
                    Apparently, NY feels they have peaked. The governor said they do not need the Comfort any longer.

                    More testing helps with real data since so far they have been basing their projections off of numbers they are just throwing darts at. Which is why they have to keep adjusting them downward each day.
                    Comment
                    • Chi_archie
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-22-08
                      • 63172

                      #45
                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                      Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

                      That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

                      I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

                      Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..

                      keep taking care of it!
                      Comment
                      • Chi_archie
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-22-08
                        • 63172

                        #46
                        New IHME update on the model, inceased the US total deaths by August, by about 5,000 more yesterday.

                        gives projections on when states should be able to safely open.

                        COVID-19 estimation updates



                        COVID-19: What’s New for April 21, 2020

                        Main updates on IHME COVID-19 predictions since April 17, 2020

                        MORE DATA, IMPROVED MODELS, BETTER ESTIMATES

                        Our last release on April 17 involved a number of model updates and innovations, namely substantially improving our death model and including initial predictions on when US states could safely consider easing current social distancing policies while shifting to robust containment strategies (widely available testing, contact tracing and case-based isolation, restrictions on mass gatherings).
                        With no substantive model changes since April 17, today’s release provides an update with new data for Europe and the US. We also aim to release initial estimates for a number of Latin American countries soon, as well as those for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada. The next update will provide a more in-depth discussion around key findings for Europe and the US.
                        KEY FINDINGS FROM TODAY’S RELEASE (APRIL 21, 2020)

                        A focus on when US states could consider easing social distancing if containment measures are in place

                        Today’s release involves the second iteration of projecting when states may be able to consider easing currently implemented social distancing policies – if and only if – strong containment measures already have been instituted. Based on the latest available data and updated predictions of COVID-19 prevalence, the table below outlines potential timing of these considerations.

                        Estimates from today’s release suggest that 30 states may fall below the 1 prevalent case per 1,000,000 threshold during May (greens to the light yellow in the map below). As further detailed in the April 17 update, this threshold is considered a conservative estimate of the number of COVID-19 infections that states could reasonably identify via active case detection and contact tracing.


                        Current trajectories indicate that 12 states may need to wait until at least June 8 or beyond that time before they fall below the 1 prevalent infection per 1,000,000 threshold. These projections could change as new data become available or different policies are implemented.
                        Results from today’s release indicate these projected “threshold” dates are, on average, later than those released on April 17. Arizona, Florida, Kansas, and North Dakota had the largest shifts to later dates. The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release, as well as predictions of longer (and flatter) epidemic peaks for several states. The table below shows predicted dates for each release, with states listed in alphabetical order.

                        When might US states safely shift to containment strategies?Prediction of the earliest week to potentially consider easing currently implemented distancing policies if strong containment measures (widely available testing, contact tracing, case-based isolation, and restrictions on mass gatherings) are already in place*
                        State
                        Today’s release (April 21)
                        From the April 17 release
                        Change since the April 17 release
                        Alabama
                        May 17
                        May 18
                        -1 day
                        Alaska
                        May 6
                        May 11
                        -5 days
                        Arizona
                        June 23
                        June 8
                        +15 days
                        Arkansas
                        June 20
                        June 22
                        -2 days
                        California
                        May 17
                        May 18
                        -1 day
                        Colorado
                        May 25
                        May 25
                        0 days
                        Connecticut
                        June 7
                        June 1
                        +6 days
                        Delaware
                        May 17
                        May 18
                        -1 day
                        District of Columbia
                        June 5
                        June 8
                        -3 days
                        Florida
                        June 11
                        June 1
                        +10 days
                        Georgia
                        June 19
                        June 15
                        +4 days
                        Hawaii
                        May 6
                        May 4
                        +2 days
                        Idaho
                        May 15
                        May 11
                        +4 days
                        Illinois
                        May 19
                        May 25
                        -6 days
                        Indiana
                        May 20
                        May 25
                        -5 days
                        Iowa
                        June 26
                        June 29
                        -3 days
                        Kansas
                        June 19
                        June 1
                        +18 days
                        Kentucky
                        June 11
                        June 8
                        +3 days
                        Louisiana
                        May 22
                        May 18
                        +4 days
                        Maine
                        May 13
                        May 18
                        -5 days
                        Maryland
                        June 5
                        June 8
                        -3 days
                        Massachusetts
                        June 7
                        June 8
                        -1 day
                        Michigan
                        May 19
                        May 18
                        +1 day
                        Minnesota
                        May 30
                        May 25
                        +5 days
                        Mississippi
                        May 30
                        June 1
                        -2 days
                        Missouri
                        June 7
                        June 1
                        +6 days
                        Montana
                        May 1
                        May 4
                        -3 days
                        Nebraska
                        June 30
                        June 29
                        +1 day
                        Nevada
                        May 18
                        May 18
                        0 days
                        New Hampshire
                        May 16
                        May 11
                        +5 days
                        New Jersey
                        May 27
                        June 1
                        -5 days
                        New Mexico
                        May 22
                        May 18
                        +4 days
                        New York
                        May 27
                        June 1
                        -5 days
                        North Carolina
                        May 10
                        May 11
                        -1 day
                        North Dakota
                        July 12
                        June 29
                        +13 days
                        Ohio
                        May 14
                        May 18
                        -4 days
                        Oklahoma
                        June 14
                        June 15
                        -1 day
                        Oregon
                        May 25
                        May 25
                        0 days
                        Pennsylvania
                        May 27
                        June 1
                        -5 days
                        Rhode Island
                        June 7
                        June 8
                        -1 day
                        South Carolina
                        June 5
                        June 1
                        +4 days
                        South Dakota
                        June 25
                        June 22
                        +3 days
                        Tennessee
                        May 20
                        May 25
                        -5 days
                        Texas
                        June 7
                        June 1
                        +6 days
                        Utah
                        June 21
                        June 15
                        +6 days
                        Vermont
                        May 8
                        May 4
                        +4 days
                        Virginia
                        June 5
                        June 8
                        -3 days
                        Washington
                        May 26
                        May 18
                        +8 days
                        West Virginia
                        May 7
                        May 4
                        +3 days
                        Wisconsin
                        May 21
                        May 18
                        +3 days
                        Wyoming
                        May 23
                        May 25
                        -2 days
                        * This prediction is based on when the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections falls below 1 per 1,000,000. To read more on this approach, please refer to our April 17 estimation update.




                        Comment
                        • Tanko
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-19-09
                          • 5143

                          #47
                          Great info Chi... Thanks

                          Summary of the number of states easing social distancing rules by week.
                          May week 1: 4
                          May week 2: 4
                          May week 3: 11
                          May week 4: 9
                          May week 5: 2
                          End May total: 30

                          Then 9 more open 1st week of June.
                          The states with the biggest chunks of the US economy would be slowly returning mid-May through first part of June.

                          So if everything holds to projection (a big if), 39 states should start easing implementations of social distancing by June 7th.

                          Seems like the numbers will move some from this timing but at least we have some ideas of when we will be progressing.

                          Thanks Chi.
                          Comment
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