Florida Derby Thread

[Louisvillekid1]

I’m tempted to single Channel Cat.

That’s ballsy

[Louisvillekid1]

#12 in the first and #3 and third look like possible p5 singles. Saez on both. I'm out for the night, back tomorrow.

I like singling early and late

because you can always play back the pick 4/5 and hedge the last

but if you single Saez and Geroux wires field in the first

might be sick missing out that pick 5 pool

that 12/1 on Kiran / Saez I think is way off

[Louisvillekid1]

Not much about Bill Mott today

he could strike

[Louisvillekid1]

I like singling early and late

because you can always play back the pick 4/5 and hedge the last

but if you single Saez and Geroux wires field in the first

might be sick missing out that pick 5 pool

that 12/1 on Kiran / Saez I think is way off

-also hard to leave chad brown off in the 3rd

[Jellymancan]

In Reference to Mott....

Chewing Gum (prefer Geroux on turf) and Prompt could strike.

Lake Avenue, I guess he could bounce back, but that last performance was ugly. But, I did see a stat yesterday that Mott is 5 for 6 (83%, $5.86 ROI) with 3yr old dirt routers going second off a 61-120 layoff.

[Louisvillekid1]

I think Lake avenue runs big today, those fractions were insane in the last

[cecil127]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

[cecil127]

missing a few races if anyone can fill in the blanks much appreciated!

[Louisvillekid1]

race 2

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/OVERANALYZE/2010/summary.html

[Louisvillekid1]

race 7

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 9

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/INTO+MISCHIEF/2005/summary.html

Should be all set

[Statman]

5dimes has Tiz The Law to win Florida Derby at +115 under "horses" as a prop wager right now...

[Seattle Slew]

Gouveneour Morris won't be half his ML odds of 8-1, maybe 4-1, but I'm siding with him. He has faced some good horses in his 3 races, Maxfield, Expendable, and should sit a good trip.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gouveneour Morris won't be half his ML odds of 8-1, maybe 4-1, but I'm siding with him. He has faced some good horses in his 3 races, Maxfield, Expendable, and should sit a good trip.

He has the most reason to improve and take a big step forward of the top contenders.

I still think Tiz the Law is too good.

[Seattle Slew]

Castallano off his mounts today, tested positive.

Irad Ortiz left the track last week, also not riding. I think Prado has bailed, too, although he doesn't get many big mounts anymore.

[Louisvillekid1]

5dimes has Tiz The Law to win Florida Derby at +115 under "horses" as a prop wager right now...

I believe we will get the 6/5 ,

[Louisvillekid1]

Castallano off his mounts today, tested positive.

Irad Ortiz left the track last week, also not riding. I think Prado has bailed, too, although he doesn't get many big mounts anymore.

HAven't heard anything about prado not riding .

[Louisvillekid1]

Waiting on the changes now,

less than 90 minutes to post

[Seattle Slew]

TVG said he left the grounds yesterday, but maybe he's riding today. Not sure.

HAven't heard anything about prado not riding .

[Louisvillekid1]

This feels like Derby Day, with everything going on.

Might as well treat it like that

Aint' getting anything like this again for a long while...

[Jellymancan]

Yes. Really gonna go big and honestly not feel as bad win or lose because it's going to be done for a good amount of time.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yes. Really gonna go big and honestly not feel as bad win or lose because it's going to be done for a good amount of time.

Yep , enjoy it

[Jellymancan]

Morning line guy Nicoletti posted scratches on his Twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/ronic17?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Jowframs]

I believe Pletcher holds the ACES
Romans #13 has a shot if he gets in,gl Kid

[Jowframs]

Morning line guy Nicoletti posted scratches on his Twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/ronic17?ref_src=...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Damn four horses out of the Derby

[Statman]

I believe we will get the 6/5 ,

Just looked at his 4 races on video and noticed the same pattern of Tiz looking into the grandstand everytime during the stretch run. Franco does get his mind back on business and but I would assume this is still a "green" issue. Also noticed Tiz spotted Ete Indian 4/lbs in the Holy Bull and still won by daylight while the weights are all at 122 today.

[Courtesywipe]

Card is crazy just took me 2+ hours for the first 5

Share all your thoughts

Race 1


#12 Enjoyitwhilewecan (12/1) , I suppose Kiran still has a few in the barn after retiring, lightly raced 4 year old filly is trying the lawn for the first time, but is beautifully breed for it. They tried to get on the grass 6 weeks ago but since they were off over 11 months , ran in the slop instead and just missed by a head. Training great since that, and big pilot upgrade from Maragh to Luis. Big chance at a big number. #4 Niko’s Dream (6/1) , Hasn’t ran in over 5 months, but that isn’t unusual from this patient barn. Watched this horse run all last year in NY and likes to pick a up a slice. 7/10 in the money lifetime. Note the insane prep work going 5/8’s in 57 and 4! on the lawn. Stretching out off the bench also a positive sign for this barn. I’d prefer Junior , but Dylan can land a share. #5 Zabava (4/1) , 2nd in the running cycle for Mike Maker who employs red hot Florent Geroux in the saddles. Just missed at this level going longer and is 7: 3-0-2 at this distance. Logical #7 Codrington (9/2) finished right with our top choice in the slop last out, but remember top selection has reason to improve being was off 11 months, Zayas for Dobles 5 year old could grab a slice. #3 Woodfin (12/1) Talented 4 year old filly might need a race coming off a 6 month layoff, but wouldn’t surprise. #14 Sweet Hitch Hiker (20/1 AE) Encountered a bunch of trouble in the last after dropping to this level from running against much better in the previous trio. Adds the Blinkers today and switches to a more aggressive jockey who rides this one early when he does. If she gets in, expect this one to be involved early.


Race 2


#6 Travelling Midas (3/1) , Finished 2nd vs similar in the last off a 17 month layoff, Winner Soldado for Pletcher just came up the rail to win back in a huge performance here on Thursday under Saez in at 52 OC. Tyler is back off the 5 day suspension, peep the sharp ticks in the morning including b2b bullets that Shows this Mr Arnold has this one ready for the 2nd off the Layoff try. #10 Gump (8/1) Saffie Joesph has 2 in here as he also saddles the #8 Overdeliver ,that horse is dropping off b2b wire to wire wins and was just in Navarro’s barn christmas time, so I don’t wanna get behind that one. However, This one is moving up and in class and pretty dirtied up. Private Purchase outta 125k race mid december , stretched off a freshening under my favorite rider manny franco, now gets another freshening, and been very sharp on the work tab, while shortening back up which this one clearly seems to prefer. Johnny V takes the mount and I don’t see him riding for this barn often, don’t forget just 3 races back this 4 year gelding was a clear 2nd behind bode express who is running the g3 Hal’s Hope later on in the card. Player #11 Top Seed (9/2) , When Shug and Joel team up you gotta include. Lightly races 4 year chestnut colt outta orb ,tries winners for the first time, and is clearly prepared, just take a look at the work tab. #12 Bernin’ Thru Gold (12/1) Last ran at saratoga, but Henning has this one ready and a Saez in the irons, might have to use too much early to be a part of the pace, but would be no surprise. #5 Beau Luminarie (7/2) to short of a price for me trying winners for the first time in a race that can in many different directions.


Race 3


#3 Largent (3/1) , Lightly raced 4 year old outta Into Mischief has done nothing wrong to date for Pletcher and Saez, never beaten by more than a Head. Major Player. #5 Temple (6/1), Won’t be using on top, but Simply put logical board hitter for Mr. Maker. #7 Proliferate (10/1) , Finished a length and half behind the Largent in the last, Geroux for Casse, underneath. #8 Unleveraged (7/2) , Chad Brown knows how to have them ready, curious to see who rides now that Javy is quarantined. This once 460k purchase is a Must include. #10 Plus Que Parfait (15/1) , Wasn’t too long ago this was was running in the top preps and kentucky derby. Mr Walsh took this horse outta of the risen to star to dubai and won the UAE Derby, only beaten by 5 vs maximum security in the derby, and was giving a very smart 6 month break after all to come back a month ago here and set the pace before weakening. Another Interesting Johnny V enticing, lots to like with a ton of back class trying the grass for just third time at a big price with top flight connections. Note the 5/8’s work on the turf in a minute and 2 for this spin. #12 Tribhuvan (9/2) , Another runner from Chad, who has been based overseas. obviously gets the meds shipping over and joel rides going for 3 straight wins. Just guessing that he might have a different path lined up for this one, because they clearly aren’t all of sudden shipping to the states after 13 races to target this 62.5k. Wait and see approach, exotic player off the bench. #13 Award Winner (8/1) , Speed of the speed, set the pace in that race we spoke off earlier with the #3 and #7, huge ask to wire this field, major pace player if gets in and Manny Rides. Go Deep


Race 4


#6 Vitalogy (5/2) Brendan Walsh sure looking good early on this card. All this one did since coming to states is miss a Grade 1 by less than 2 lengths to the 10 horse in here from the rail, follow that up missing by a neck in a G3 from the 14 post, then come back after a 6 month layoff to score a G3 Victory from the 11 post, Now draws a perfect stalking trip setup, but note the rider change as JAvy is listed. #10 Decorated Invader (7/2) , In only 4 races this 3 year old colt outta war front has been all over the globe, from the spa to Cananda to Cali and now florida. Was last seen in the Breeders Cup Juv Turf, only missing by a length to Structor and Billy Batts. Joel will prob lose by a nose If I put this one on top, but this price is a steal , if Chris Clement has this one ready after yet shipping across the country again. Note you don’t drop in a 100k stakes off the bench from b2b G1 races, might need one, but could still win #9 South Bend (4/1) , Really nice looking 3 year old colt, went for 70k at the OBS March sale which was 14x the stud fee. Stanley Hough put this horse up against some of the best 3 years olds like silver prospector, as seen on tv, sole volant, chancellot, etc. Then they move the grass and carried all that class over finishing 3rd in the last 2, only a length and half behind Vitalogy. May get a piece. #3 Get Smokin (8/1) , Will be trying to wire this field, may hold onto a share.


Race 5


#5 Chewing Gum (4/1) , Bill Mott gives this one some class relief off the 2 month freshening. Gets a much more aggressive rider and but a bullet up in prep. Expect this one to be more forwardly placed here. #3 Network Effect (7/2) , Was last seen in the G1 Cigar Mile vs Maximum Security, not the most positive of moves on this drop, Chad Brown did have Javy listed aboard, Clear Contender. #11 Almashriq (8/1) , Another Kiran that I think you might need to include , won first try in the states, albeit being disappointing off that 1.2 million dollar pricetag. #9 Intrepid Heart (9/2) , Ran against much better before the 8 month layoff, Todd has this one working hard for the return , Johnny Rides. #2 Olympic Village (10/1) , Could see this one moving late to get into the exotics.

Thanks brotha 👍🏻

[trytrytry]

nobody to look at today he will be fine and cruise in this one.

[mrginandtonic]

Just looked at his 4 races on video and noticed the same pattern of Tiz looking into the grandstand everytime during the stretch run. Franco does get his mind back on business and but I would assume this is still a "green" issue. Also noticed Tiz spotted Ete Indian 4/lbs in the Holy Bull and still won by daylight while the weights are all at 122 today.

There is no one in the grandstand today so that will help too. Just wonder if there is like a Giacomo when he won Kentucky Derby where I didn’t see any clues from the form....

[Jowframs]

nobody to look at today he will be fine and cruise in this one.

Wont be that easy

[Louisvillekid1]

Some big overlays in the opener

[harthebar]

Ok. Kid. Did the card. Going to combine my pick 4 picks with your picks. Good luck today may the horse gods smile on us and everyone and also hope for the continued racing.

Gulfstream fla.derby day
Race 1. 10. 2. 3
Race 2. 11 5. 1
Race 3. 7 5. 2
Race 4. 6. 3. 2
Race 5. 10. 5
Race 6. 1. 9. 5
Race 7. 2. 3. 9
Race 8. 5. 7. 8. 6
Race 9. 12. 5. 11. 2
Race 10. 12. 5. 2. 4
Race 11. 4 5 9 6
Race 12. 9. 1 5
Race 13. 4. 9. 5
Race 14. 9. 5. 7. 1.

[Louisvillekid1]

Woodfin cogrington way to high

[BOA12]

Ok. Kid. Did the card. Going to combine my pick 4 picks with your picks. Good luck today may the horse gods smile on us and everyone and also hope for the continued racing.

Gulfstream fla.derby day
Race 1. 10. 2. 3
Race 2. 11 5. 1
Race 3. 7 5. 2
Race 4. 6. 3. 2
Race 5. 10. 5
Race 6. 1. 9. 5
Race 7. 2. 3. 9
Race 8. 5. 7. 8. 6
Race 9. 12. 5. 11. 2
Race 10. 12. 5. 2. 4
Race 11. 4 5 9 6
Race 12. 9. 1 5
Race 13. 4. 9. 5
Race 14. 9. 5. 7. 1.

Is your first horse your top choice if you were to single? Thanks.

[Louisvillekid1]

Small shot at the early pick 5

5,12
6,11
3
2,6,9,10
3,5,9,11 ($32)