Florida Derby Thread

[jjgold]

Saez so hard to beat right now

[Louisvillekid1]

Horse racing went off FS2 like 15 min ago

just realized I been watching this dog agility competition since

they are pretty talented , some got better footwork than nfl combine

not sure why I’m sharing this lol

[Louisvillekid1]

Anybody wanna talk early pick 5? or pick 6?

I’ll be playing both ...

[Louisvillekid1]

...

[Jellymancan]

Sure who do you like single wise in the p5 or p6?

[mrginandtonic]

Sure who do you like single wise in the p5 or p6?

Don’t think there is any solid single in the Pick 6, Tis the Law is probably closest one...

I think Zulu Alpha (ML 3-5) maybe vulnerable....

[Jellymancan]

People will pound Zulu Alpha and Tiz the Law. I'd take Tiz the Law over Zulu Alpha.

[littlekona]

People will pound Zulu Alpha and Tiz the Law. I'd take Tiz the Law over Zulu Alpha.

Zulu Alpha sits the trip though with all the speed lined up...i think u take the free bingo spot in pic 4-5-6 and try to get prices elsewhere though derby looks like Chalk is solid too..maybe turn pick 6 to a pick 4?

[Jellymancan]

Zulu Alpha sits the trip though with all the speed lined up...i think u take the free bingo spot in pic 4-5-6 and try to get prices elsewhere though derby looks like Chalk is solid too..maybe turn pick 6 to a pick 4?

I think many people could go that way and load up on others races. But, I mean, MrGinandtonic is right, no really clear singles. Tiz the Law is close but he's still learning and had some challenging trips in some of his races. Also, I don't see that much speed in the Zulu Alpha race so it could get tight and traffic like late, so others could have chances.

[mrginandtonic]

I think many people could go that way and load up on others races. But, I mean, MrGinandtonic is right, no really clear singles. Tiz the Law is close but he's still learning and had some challenging trips in some of his races. Also, I don't see that much speed in the Zulu Alpha race so it could get tight and traffic like late, so others could have chances.

I agree with Jellyman, I don't see a lot of speed signed up with Zulu Alpha. Where do you think the speed will be from, Kona? And if so, will there be enough for Zulu A to run at?? I'm not that convince there is.

As for Tis the Law, like you said, he still a 3 yr old and the other 3 yr will mature. On paper, Tis the Law looks like the Law that the others have to beat.

[Jellymancan]

I think Rosario might try to get out in front and be aggressive on the #1 Channel Cat even though he's a closer type of jockey. #1 won CC won at the Spa with this strategy with Saez on board.

Also, if I had to try to single other races in the pick 6:

#2 Zofelle in the 9th (Rosario better closer for this horse, if he times it out will win at the end)
#6 Mean Mary in the 10th (Saez on fire, has speed to get out there and wire against this tougher than last bunch)

[mrginandtonic]

I think Rosario might try to get out in front and be aggressive on the #1 Channel Cat even though he's a closer type of jockey. #1 won CC won at the Spa with this strategy with Saez on board.

Also, if I had to try to single other races in the pick 6:

#2 Zofelle in the 9th (Rosario better closer for this horse, if he times it out will win at the end)
#6 Mean Mary in the 10th (Saez on fire, has speed to get out there and wire against this tougher than last bunch)

The 1 mile turf in Race 9 is a tough one IMO, while Zofelle is interesting with her closing kicks, but the other Walsh's entry, La Signare, can't be overlook either because of her more tactical speed. Newspaperofrecord from Chad Brown is always dangerous, but she has been out since July. Chad can get her ready, but I wonder if she prefers softer turf?? Franco's horse, Getmotherarose, looks good too. She just won a G3 last month from second off layoff, now will be 3rd off layoff. The place horse Silver Kitten just won today's feature allowance race going wire to wire for 1 1/8 (24.2, 48.3, 1:11.4, 1:35, 1:46.5). Hard race to single. My long shot will be 8-East Moon.

[JBEX]

brisnet has "tiz the laws" holy bull figure @ 108 and the beyer for that race is 100..understand they're on a different scale but I do believe that equates to a 5-6 length difference (possibly more) in favor of the brisnest's..not knocking the horse rather just pointing it out.. if I did this wrong let me know but think it's correct

[Wabashwonders]

Just read that Newspaperofrecord will scratch tomorrow

[Louisvillekid1]

Tiz the law is THE SINGLE

newspaper of record wasn’t gonna win anyway

it’s a difficult sequence

I will have a difficult single

[Louisvillekid1]

Zulu alpha is vulnerable but seriously , nobody except channel cat can win that race

[jjgold]

Kid good luck tomorrow

[Louisvillekid1]

Can jarakta wire them now?

[Louisvillekid1]

I don’t like getmotherarose except that manny rides

[Louisvillekid1]

I like the early pick 5 better

[Louisvillekid1]

Newspaper of record could only win on the lead anyway

[Jellymancan]

The 1 mile turf in Race 9 is a tough one IMO, while Zofelle is interesting with her closing kicks, but the other Walsh's entry, La Signare, can't be overlook either because of her more tactical speed. Newspaperofrecord from Chad Brown is always dangerous, but she has been out since July. Chad can get her ready, but I wonder if she prefers softer turf?? Franco's horse, Getmotherarose, looks good too. She just won a G3 last month from second off layoff, now will be 3rd off layoff. The place horse Silver Kitten just won today's feature allowance race going wire to wire for 1 1/8 (24.2, 48.3, 1:11.4, 1:35, 1:46.5). Hard race to single. My long shot will be 8-East Moon.

Fields are so deep. I do like the #6 La Signare, first time third off layoff and is getting better and better. I think I overlooked the #7 Getmotherarose, you're right, looks good after that G3 last month coming off best performance and now third off layoff with Manny. (Thanks on this one!) Silver Kitten did look good today. Could he possibly have a let down?#8 East Moon has a shot, and might get a jump on the leaders first before the #2. Every race is hard to single, HA!

[Jellymancan]

Can jarakta wire them now?

Yes. GP sometimes has a tough kickback on that turf so it's possible to wire at his first time going this far.

[Wabashwonders]

Zulu alpha is vulnerable but seriously , nobody except channel cat can win that race

Not much speed in this race and the one time Channel Cat beat Zulu Alpha, he went straight to the lead and wired the field. Have to believe from Post 1, they try those tactics again.

[Louisvillekid1]

agree

but the pick 6 is gonna blow up somewhere

the Zulu alpha race might be the one

[Louisvillekid1]

Horse player instinct tells me tonalits shape isn’t winning either

[Louisvillekid1]

I think the play of the day is Kiran off that bat with Saez

that 12/1 might not be 5/1 and The soft 4/1 favs makes sense

[Louisvillekid1]

My top choice Zoffle needs that’s pace from newspaper

[Jellymancan]

#12 in the first and #3 and third look like possible p5 singles. Saez on both. I'm out for the night, back tomorrow.

[mrginandtonic]

Fields are so deep. I do like the #6 La Signare, first time third off layoff and is getting better and better. I think I overlooked the #7 Getmotherarose, you're right, looks good after that G3 last month coming off best performance and now third off layoff with Manny. (Thanks on this one!) Silver Kitten did look good today. Could he possibly have a let down?#8 East Moon has a shot, and might get a jump on the leaders first before the #2. Every race is hard to single, HA!

I agree, every race is hard to single. With at $5 mil for the Pick 6, gonna concentrate on the Pick 6.... lol (as if I’m gonna win it lol)

[mrginandtonic]

agree

but the pick 6 is gonna blow up somewhere

the Zulu alpha race might be the one

We have seen this scenario so many times....

[SBR Tony]

I'm going with independence hall and will box him with Tiz the law

[Wabashwonders]

Race 10


#6 Mean Mary (3/1) , Just wired a field going a mile and half on the turf and might get lose on the lead here with Saez in the cockpit for Graham Motion. #5 Gentle Ruler (7/2) , Won 6 of 7 and Maybe Landeros will finally get a win at this meet. Will have to be ready off that 5 month layoff vs this field, however. #7 Cap De Creus (10/1) , Definitely don’t trust Joel going this long, but just missed Mean Mary by a head a few races back, so I’ll write a line. #12 Elizabeth Way (9/2) , is 2 for 2 in the states and has an outside chance for the hat trick. #1 Beale Street (15/1) , Big time class test but with this pilot who can save ground on the rail and pop up late aboard a horse that’s 7 for 8 in the money on the lawn. Could be a player in the tri’s / Super’s. #3 Irisa (30/1) , Another one that makes sense with a ton of value in the second attempt since shipping from overseas. Prado having a big meet and Ignacio does some good work at times. bomb play for underneath.

I think Ignacio’s other runner in here,#4 Quick Witted, who finished just ahead of Zofelle last out, may add value underneath also. I think he will like the extra distance and should improve 2nd off the long layoff.

[Wabashwonders]

agree

but the pick 6 is gonna blow up somewhere

the Zulu alpha race might be the one

I’m tempted to single Channel Cat.

[JBEX]

brisnet has "tiz the laws" holy bull figure @ 108 and the beyer for that race is 100..understand they're on a different scale but I do believe that equates to a 5-6 length difference (possibly more) in favor of the brisnest's..not knocking the horse rather just pointing it out.. if I did this wrong let me know but think it's correct

more like 2-3..split the difference nothing (brisnet/beyer) nothing to get excited about