TFW you beat the closing price by <50% and your pick never had a chance

[Gaze73]

Feels bad. Sometimes the line movements make zero sense. Team/Player A opens at -200, closes at +150 (no player substitutions), wins in a blowout. Team/Player B opens at +300, closes at -110, loses in a blowout. How can there be such massive discrepancies between the market and the books? Sometimes super strong favs get zero support from the market and super value dogs get zero support as well.

And don't tell me the results are just variance because when a tennis player loses 6:2 6:2 or a soccer team loses 4:0 I don't think there was any value on the other player/team even if they played the game 100 times.

My advice when you beat the closing price by a lot is to just hedge. I've seen favs steam from -150 to -1000 and lose, because the market is stupid AF. The other day I bet on a +760 dog which drifted to +1000 and won, certainly feels better than "beating the market" and losing hard. Picking winners is the best way to beat the market.

[jjgold]

means nothing chief

random

[Gaze73]

Today SAM Massagno basketball, opened at +550 closed at -600 and lost. Did they really have an 85% chance to win? I don't think so, it's just sheep chasing steam like lambs to the slaughter. Whoever backed at +550 and didn't hedge is stupid. Why wait for the game result when you can collect your value pre game? I see huge steamers losing all the time.

[DR225]

I have never seen a team go from +550 to -600, what kind of a mickey mouse league is that? Someone must've convinced a lot of people that it was going to be fixed.

[byronbb]

The big money movers all hedge a % of their bet to reduce variance. Small markets are less efficient, big moves dont mean much in U12 Chinese basketball games or whatever your bets were on. iF you really can beat these markets that well then just layoff on the other side and grind bonuses.

[Gaze73]

I have never seen a team go from +550 to -600, what kind of a mickey mouse league is that? Someone must've convinced a lot of people that it was going to be fixed.

Big moves like that usually mean a B squad will be playing. 10 days ago Barcelona vs Getafe drifted from -120 to +360. If I was a bookie I would just void such bets, no capping skills will help you when the coach decides to bench the star players one hour before the game.