This TNF spread is ridiculous

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 02:18 PM

Nothing to do with recency bias, just go back and look at what pats typically do to luck, not pretty. I laid -10 the other day and -6.5 1st half. I don’t even think luck will have all that much time w the ball, I expect pats to dominate time of possession. At least one of us win, gl pal.

**KRIT** · 10-04-18, 02:26 PM

Indy is really banged up. No Costanzo, TY Hilton, Doyle and some of their DBs I think.

**SamsNCharge99** · 10-04-18, 02:29 PM

yea Indy is a team playing better than their record shows, but tonight I'm all over NE. Too many injuries for Indy coming off bad OT loss on short week.

NE has edleman too and Brady fresh off monster game, he should have another big night

**KRIT** · 10-04-18, 02:36 PM

In general, don’t take away teams on Thursday.

**Venom72** · 10-04-18, 02:39 PM

Pats or no play

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

In general, don’t take away teams on Thursday.

Not sure if I ever do it, pretty much home team or pass.

**lakerboy** · 10-04-18, 02:41 PM

Good luck Dom.

**DOM_Toretto** · 10-04-18, 02:45 PM

Food for thought:

Indy 1st in NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage. New England 23rd in opponent 3rd down %.

Indy 2nd in NFL in sacks. New England 29th.

Indy was tied or winning in the 4th quarter in all of their games so far this season.

Indy banged up but every team is banged up on TNF.

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 02:49 PM

Pats numbers in sept mean next to nothing imo. Until they prove to have deteriorated significantly during meaningful football I just have no interest in looking at them any differently than the last decade +. Could be a mistake, but even tho I’ve cashed several games w Indy I still don’t think all that much of them.

**johnnyvegas13** · 10-04-18, 03:37 PM

Like over

suprizdddd ur on colts ml

didnt know u went for crazy upsets

**thetrinity** · 10-04-18, 03:38 PM

Indy small IMO

**thebestthereis** · 10-04-18, 03:55 PM

Thursday night in Foxboro not the same as a Sunday. If this was Sunday 1PM EST, Colts plus the points for sure. Short week on the road off an overtime debacle (could be motivation?) not good here in general for any team. Pats dominate home night games and the atmosphere is crazy, I've been several times. Too many points for me so I'll pass, but I am throwing small prop play on how many times they will mention deflated balls. Over 255 easy money

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Thursday night in Foxboro not the same as a Sunday. If this was Sunday 1PM EST, Colts plus the points for sure. Short week on the road off an overtime debacle (could be motivation?) not good here in general for any team. Pats dominate home night games and the atmosphere is crazy, I've been several times. Too many points for me so I'll pass, but I am throwing small prop play on how many times they will mention deflated balls. Over 255 easy money

Lol. Prob so

**Pick'nParlays** · 10-04-18, 04:15 PM

I still lean over for Pat's TT

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

I still lean over for Pat's TT

If I was inclined to play over that def the way i would go. I suspect they will keep ball away from luck not giving him lot of chances to put up points.

**jjgold** · 10-04-18, 04:44 PM

Luck is still good

take the number

**sheedy17** · 10-04-18, 04:47 PM

Pats haven't had Gronk and Julius in the line up together since November 2016, with them both active , and the injuries the Colts got, this will be done half way through the 2nd. Pats in a landslide

Don't forget McDaniels shunned the colts coaching job, so I wouldn't be surprised seeing some dirty stuff

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by sheedy17

Pats haven't had Gronk and Julius in the line up together since November 2016, with them both active , and the injuries the Colts got, this will be done half way through the 2nd. Pats in a landslide

Don't forget McDaniels shunned the colts coaching job, so I wouldn't be surprised seeing some dirty stuff

Don’t forget colts were ones snitching and crying bout the deflated fbs too, lol. More reason to embarrass them!! Is Gronk playing? I thought he might sit out, not that it matters much to me.

**aston** · 10-04-18, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

Talk about recency bias. Pats at home off 2 losses beat up a bad Miami team who was sitting comfy at 3-0 beating some bad teams. Meanwhile, Indy coach loses to a bad Houston team who’s back was against the wall.

In reality this Indy team is pretty decent, and you’re gonna give me 11 points?!

Even if things go south and pats are blowing out the colts by 17, you can count on Andrew Luck getting garbage time stats and driving down to score a TD with a minute or two left to lose by 10 or less - which is exactly what he did the last time he played the Pats. Difference is this Pats team isn’t nearly as good as that Pats team, and this Colts team would be much better than that previous one if TY were healthy.

Give me 11 points and hell yeah I’ll take the +450 ML shot

you crazy taking colts moneyline

No way they lose to a banged up colts team at home

**DOM_Toretto** · 10-04-18, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by aston

you crazy taking colts moneyline

No way they lose to a banged up colts team at home

Anytime I can get +450 or more in NFL I’m probably taking a shot on the ML

Do I think colts win? No, but I give them better than a 22% shot.

**mrpapageorgio** · 10-04-18, 06:04 PM

Road teams on TNF are miserable ATS also.

**SharpAngles** · 10-04-18, 06:07 PM

+11 for a team that moves the football on the road and has been within one score in every 4th quarter? Smells like a trap and public humiliation of the Colts.

**jtoler** · 10-04-18, 06:07 PM

pats numbers always inflated, in this era no team in all of sports has consistently lived up to their fav spreads as pats they have been a covering machine

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 06:10 PM

Can we at least agree the line isn’t all that redic? Nobody would be shocked to see a 30-17 type game would they?

**alecmatt5** · 10-04-18, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

In general, don’t take away teams on Thursday.

I thought so too but then I did some research...

Home teams on Thursday night
2017: 11-8 57.9%
2016: 12-6 (the one outlier) 66.7%
2015: 8-8 50%
2014: 9-7 56.3%
2013: 7-7 50%

Home team win percentage in NFL regular season (any day of the week)= about 57%

My point being it is sort of a fallacy that the home team has more of an advantage on these Thursday night games. I'm not criticizing your logic, I had the same thinking as well and went to find the numbers to back it up and realized it just isn't true.

**jtoler** · 10-04-18, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by alecmatt5

I thought so too but then I did some research...

Home teams on Thursday night
2017: 11-8 57.9%
2016: 12-6 (the one outlier) 66.7%
2015: 8-8 50%
2014: 9-7 56.3%
2013: 7-7 50%

Home team win percentage in NFL regular season (any day of the week)= about 57%

My point being it is sort of a fallacy that the home team has more of an advantage on these Thursday night games. I'm not criticizing your logic, I had the same thinking as well and went to find the numbers to back it up and realized it just isn't true.

wonder what the spreads were in those games, those numbers would look good for home team if a huge number were dogs

**mrpapageorgio** · 10-04-18, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by alecmatt5

I thought so too but then I did some research...

Home teams on Thursday night
2017: 11-8 57.9%
2016: 12-6 (the one outlier) 66.7%
2015: 8-8 50%
2014: 9-7 56.3%
2013: 7-7 50%

Home team win percentage in NFL regular season (any day of the week)= about 57%

My point being it is sort of a fallacy that the home team has more of an advantage on these Thursday night games. I'm not criticizing your logic, I had the same thinking as well and went to find the numbers to back it up and realized it just isn't true.

They have yet to cover this season though (Rams Chargers was a push for all intents and purposes). I know it's a small sample size, but it shouldn't be ignored.
That said I'm staying off the sides, I took under 51 a couple days ago.

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by jtoler

wonder what the spreads were in those games, those numbers would look good for home team if a huge number were dogs

Pretty rare to see a home team on thu dogged these days, don’t think there been one yet this year, even browns were favs!! Lol

**edoggdriveby** · 10-04-18, 06:21 PM

Wait until 2nd half and take the team that is giving you a better game spread than the opening line. That play in MNF and TNF this year is 8-1 (lone loss being the Lions against the Jets).

**shocka1212** · 10-04-18, 06:30 PM

teasing pats and the under

**2daBank** · 10-04-18, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

teasing pats and the under

I have a pats-3 left over from a Monday night teaser. Felt like that was so easy had to go ahead and put some on half and fg spread, lol. I’m such a degenerate!!

**jtoler** · 10-04-18, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Pretty rare to see a home team on thu dogged these days, don’t think there been one yet this year, even browns were favs!! Lol

might be two road favs the next 2 weeks other than that yep so far home favs. Id figure these games players are a little more cautious wanting to get it over with and wanting to rest, relax, and heal a little more, after thursday games they dont play for another 10 days just gotta get through that tough sunday/thursday 2 games in 4 days stretch

**shocka1212** · 10-04-18, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I have a pats-3 left over from a Monday night teaser. Felt like that was so easy had to go ahead and put some on half and fg spread, lol. I’m such a degenerate!!

38-10 type of game.

**Snowball** · 10-04-18, 06:36 PM

btw 2 of indy's best defensive tacklers are questionable
edelman hungry
take a good look at that indy ir before you fade brady tonight