Brock Lesnar +209 vs courmier?????????

[Kermit]

Brock's only chance is if Ron DeRousey runs out of the back and distracts the ref so that Lesner can hit DC with the brass knucks.

[Rich Benjamins]

You're right. +750 is more appropriate.

This is a terrible matchup for Brock. All he has is going for him is wrestling and Cormier is an Olympic level wrestler. I don't think anyone has ever taken Cormier down, except Jon Jones when Cormier was gassed. I don't see any path to victory for Lesnar, so even +1000 would be OK.

[KVB]

The tiny volume I hear about on this fight, which is December 31st, says all the money, not tickets, don't know about tickets from any samples, but almost all the money bet so far is on Cormier.

5 D dropped in from -275 to -265, but I have no idea when that move was made relative to the bets coming in.

So early and these things change...

So everyone seems to, I am assuming subjectively, although some of you may have numbers, agree that this line is too low.

So let's take it the step further and ask why and consider the consequence.

Why? Brock is crossover and public? Brock is a bigger beast? Why?

Consequence? Well, we don't have worthy back end figures, there isn't volume; but let's say that if the fighting technique die hard analysts all think Cormier is cheap, and the actual sharper money, those guys that move the line, like the cheap Cormier, then perhaps it actually bodes well for Brock.

There could be a lot of money to be taken down when a matchup like this offers a "cheap" favorite, especially if it has holiday season marketability.

The originators don't really make too many mistakes, and the books mitigate them anyway. So if the line is so low, as everyone insists, then why?

The books set lines for a purpose.

Can anybody make a case for what the line should be, other than subjective input? Anybody cap a line or price to compare to the market?

Does anybody at SBR actually handicap the game to determine value against the market without solely using subjective input when weighting the relevant factors?

I have to go on the market here, I have no price capped, but I am an expert on the ends and means of both line originators and the bookmakers they serve, no matter the sport.

So, SBR, what do you have?

[SamsNCharge99]

will paul heyman be in his corner?

[KVB]

[Thrilla]

[KVB]

So Brock flaps his wings and it's over?

He's not as vulnerable without the afro...

Anyone want to chime in on my post above?

[HurlSweatPants]

So everyone seems to, I am assuming subjectively, although some of you may have numbers, agree that this line is too low.

So let's take it the step further and ask why and consider the consequence.

Why? Brock is crossover and public? Brock is a bigger beast? Why?

Consequence? Well, we don't have worthy back end figures, there isn't volume; but let's say that if the fighting technique die hard analysts all think Cormier is cheap, and the actual sharper money, those guys that move the line, like the cheap Cormier, then perhaps it actually bodes well for Brock.

There could be a lot of money to be taken down when a matchup like this offers a "cheap" favorite, especially if it has holiday season marketability.

The originators don't really make too many mistakes, and the books mitigate them anyway. So if the line is so low, as everyone insists, then why?

The books set lines for a purpose.

Can anybody make a case for what the line should be, other than subjective input? Anybody cap a line or price to compare to the market?

Does anybody at SBR actually handicap the game to determine value against the market without solely using subjective input when weighting the relevant factors?

I have to go on the market here, I have no price capped, but I am an expert on the ends and means of both line originators and the bookmakers they serve, no matter the sport.

So, SBR, what do you have?

If you want to use a recent line as an example, he opened at a -450 against No Time, a man who destroyed every one in he faced and who also happened to be a HW at one time. There is no one that could argue that a non roided Lesnar is even in the same ball park as Volkan.

Brock hasn't even competed since July of 2016, and is 0-2-1 in his last 3 fights, he was KOd in both loses (one by DC's very own training partner.)

There was a heavy faction on CM Punk as well, he was only a +160 dog. If you follow the sport you know how that turned out.

This line should be more -550 and up in favor of Cormier. The first punch Brock takes to the face he will turtle and quit like he did in his 2 previous fight before Hunt.

[KVB]

Good stuff Hurl.

So why do you think the line is so low?

Is the public hype for Brock so much that it will help balance the money when all that money comes on Cormier, who appears to be a fire sale.

Or did the books get exactly what they want from the originators, and end up with a very one sided handle with all the money on Cormier?

Lines aren't usually mistakes and the lines that many think are mistakes, really never were mistakes.

We need more volume to see how that money goes and I promise to share my information as it comes.

[JIBBBY]

Lesnar will be on the canvas after the first punch lands on his oversized hgh head

Size not really a factor when you fight like a pussy and can't strike or take damage

Yup, if that fight ever does go down bet the house on DC and by KO... Lesnar will get crushed standing with DC and in the 1st round.. Lesnar will not be able to put DC on his back either.. DC has been the more active fighter in the Octagon, I can't even remember the last time Lesnar fought in the Octagon?

Lesnar takes a dive early on after he feels the first good punch landed.. He'll be balling up and looking to get out in a hurry...

I don't think this fight ever happens though...

Heavweight 5 rounds
must take place by Dec 31st 2019 for action
Tue 12/31		1101 Brock Lesnar		+205
11:59PM		1102 Daniel Cormier		-265

[KVB]

Wait this fight isn't booked? That's why it's only at 5 Dimes as stupid ass prop?

WTF are we even talking about then?

Fawk.

[sheedy17]

Brock fighting Cormier is a terrible idea, Cormier is a actual good wrestler, Brock is like division one lol, Lesnar anything under +300 + 400 is a joke, its a bad fight and Brock would be stupid to take it IMO, but he does have the size, just don't know if he wouold be able to take Cormier down

[HurlSweatPants]

I think Brock has to pass some USADA hurdles if I am not mistaken. There is also a potential monster named Jon Jones that is creeping back and I know DC would love another shot, I think regardless of what he says about his next being his last, I think he would come back for one more against JJ.

[KVB]

Dude, I put thought in this fight and planted seeds for regular cappers to go on for the future.

Turns out it's not really a fight after all.

Is this fight happening this year or not?

[JIBBBY]

Dude, I put thought in this fight and planted seeds for regular cappers to go on for the future.

Turns out it's not really a fight after all.

Is this fight happening this year or not?

Tease... Probably not happening.. Although DC will take the fight and payday for sure and if Lesnar wants to take a few big shots for a big payday himself before going fetal position you never know?.. Will be a short fight if it happens..

[KVB]

Well, everyone agrees the line is whack. So either Cormier is taking a dive or it isn't happening, in my opinion.

[acquavallo]

Lol

It’s all rigged guy

Anyone betting that sport is a jerk off most of them have no money and need to gamble

MMA my main source of income, Mr. K.
PS sorry, can't give away the formula...If not done very carefully, the spiggot gets closed shut very quickly.