Japan to NOT Qualify +600 and Columbia/Senegal to Top Group +1600

[k13]

Great odds as this has a good chance to happen.
Japan will lose to Poland as Poland has nothing to play for now. No pressure so they'll show up and win their meaningless game as they always do.

Columbia should beat Senegal.

[bonusguy]

is that all that needs to happen?

no goal differential scenario?

[wikkidinsane]

i am going to check this out...

[HurryUpAndDrink]

is that all that needs to happen?

no goal differential scenario?

yep no goal differential scenario, that combination of results is enough

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Great odds as this has a good chance to happen.
Japan will lose to Poland as Poland has nothing to play for now. No pressure so they'll show up and win their meaningless game as they always do.

Columbia should beat Senegal.

Good fukkin find my friend!!!!

[THam12]

What site has these??

[HurryUpAndDrink]

What site has these??

+1

not pinny, not bookmaker


Japan not to qualify on BOOKMAKER

NO
+475TO ADVANCE GROUP STAGE - JAPAN

Risking: $20.00 To win: $95.00

[THam12]

Bovada have them ? Or mybookie?

[shadymcgrady]

I only took Columbia to win the group, nice find

[HurryUpAndDrink]

I only took Columbia to win the group, nice find

see that happening but odds not worth it, only +205 on BM

[shadymcgrady]

I got worse than that, +130

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm confused columbia OR senegal topping the group is +1600?

i haven't looked at game odds but i see that world's most renowned analytical site has the following for first and 2nd places: japan 40/40, columbia 31/29, senegal 29/30....... so columbia/senegal winning group is 60%. japan 40%.. japan advancing should be +400 not +600...

EDIT: is the +1600 actually +160? the numbers still wouldn't make sense but they'd be much much closer

[cala56]

i LOVED THAT BET GOOD LUCK

[lakerboy]

Senegal and Japan will qualify

[gojetsgomoxies]

looking at market odds, senegal is a slight favourite over the other 2 to win group.. japan is a very healthy favourite to advance...

i haven't thought it complletely through but it's interesting that group winning odds and advancement odds often don't correlate highly. germany much greater chance to advance than mexico. but mexico much greater chance to finish 1st (or 3rd i'd guess)

[bonusguy]

poland will probably have 10-15k fans there

they will want to win. thats why i took the bet at +570

these guys play for $ too at this point. a good personal performance in the WC could make you money. every game counts

[Optional]

Got +633 for Japan not to qualify on Betfair.

Nice tip

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Senegal and Japan will qualify

lol you just made colombia and senegal a lock

[ArunSh]

I don't get it: if Columbia + Poland both win (which I think is distinctly possible) then it will come down to goal differential between Senegal + Japan won't it (they are currently tied in both goal differential + goals scored)? So those two results alone do not do it unless I'm missing something, you also need to Poland to win in a greater margin or by same margin with fewer goals scored by Japan.

If it was just a matter of Poland winning + Columbia winning/tieing then I would agree this seems to have great value. But I don't think it's quite that simple.

[ChiLLx]

Will take a flyer bet on Japan not advancing +608
Don't understand how the second bet is +1600 or where that would be found

[Optional]

yep no goal differential scenario, that combination of results is enough

Not sure how you hypnotized me into believing you. I even looked at the table to double check myself and somehow missed that you were wrong.

[semibluff]

Odds to win Group H are in the neighbourhood of: Japan +134, Columbia +210, Senegal +240. If you're betting a line that is significantly different to that then you're betting a bad line.

Japan not to qualify requires either:
A) A parlay of Poland winning, (+205) & Columbia getting a draw, (+260). Net +1000.
B) A parlay of a narrow Columbia win, (about +290 on a win by 1 goal), with an even bigger Poland win, (+???)
C) Both Poland and Columbia to win by the same margin and Senegal to progress on a tie-breaker, (+???).

+633 on Japan NOT to qualify looks like a fair bet. There might be a little bit of value in it.

[ArunSh]

Not sure how you hypnotized me into believing you. I even looked at the table to double check myself and somehow missed that you were wrong.

Yes, I nearly bet it myself when I read that. Poland winning + Columbia winning or tieing, +600 seemed like great odds for that. Lucky I decided to double check it myself. Now I really frankly don't think there really is value in it after all - good chance imo that Columbia crushes Senegal as they did Poland which would pretty much automatically lose the bet (I don't see Poland doing the same thing to Japan even though they might win).

[pavyracer]

Great odds as this has a good chance to happen.
Japan will lose to Poland as Poland has nothing to play for now. No pressure so they'll show up and win their meaningless game as they always do.

Columbia should beat Senegal.

How much does a parlay of Poland and Colombia pay?

[jts1207]

Lol.....this pathetic clown copied and pasted these picks across the street as his own.

[ArunSh]

How much does a parlay of Poland and Colombia pay?

I think parlaying Poland to win and Colombia to win or tie the odds are about +250. So the line in question is much better than that. But as I said, if Columbia + Poland both win, imo more likely that Japan advances in front of Senegal - Columbia obviously has much more at stake than Poland and is way more likely to win big/run it up. So yeah, I don't know if the +600 line really has much value. Who can really be sure though!

[jts1207]

Good fukkin find my friend!!!!

How many plays do you steal from here and post elsewhere?

[bonzaii]

So basically for this bet Colombia has to beat Senegal and than you got to hope Japan goes basically scoreless against Poland and Senegal has to score as well against Colombia while losing?

[bonzaii]

Don't two third place teams out of all the groups qualify though? So couldn't Japan qualify finishing 3rd in their group?

[lakerboy]

Don't two third place teams out of all the groups qualify though? So couldn't Japan qualify finishing 3rd in their group?

No. There are 8 groups. 2 each. That used to happen in the old days when there were 6 groups and 4 third place guys made it.

[thetrinity]

What if Japan and Senegal both lose 1-0

[Optional]

What if Japan and Senegal both lose 1-0

As they drew 2-2 in their game, I think it would come to item 7)

Japan has 3 yellow cards and Senegal has 5 right now.

1. Points obtained in all group matches;
2. Goal difference in all group matches;
3. Number of goals scored in all group matches;
4. Points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question;
5. Goal difference in the matches played between the teams in question;
6. Number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question;
7. Fair play points in all group matches (only one of these deductions shall be applied to a player in a single match):
   • First yellow card: minus 1 point;
   • Indirect red card (second yellow card): minus 3 points;
   • Direct red card: minus 4 points;
   • Yellow card and direct red card: minus 5 points;
   
   
   
8. Drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

[gojetsgomoxies]

decent chance that england-belgium placings come down to fair play score.

[k13]

What site has these??

B365.

Williamhill also but worse odds.

5dimes has Japan to Not qualify.

[k13]

The second bet can be found in "group forecast" in different books.