How many actually win

**Razz** · 10-25-05, 02:00 PM

Lack of discipline mostly. I heard a bookie once say if people never chased, he would be out of business. This may have been an exaggeration, but still something to think about.

**smoothsuave** · 10-25-05, 02:03 PM

I basically started a week before my Join Date and initially made a large bet and won. Well then I made 2 bets and lost both of them (close games). So I was even, I tried to come up with a strategy. I still place large bets, started playing 1st and 2nd halfs, and mostly large bets on 3team 10 point teasers. I am ahead. I also hit two parlays 5 team at 20 bet and 3 team 100 bet. Wasnt even tracking the parlay just noticed it when I seen the balance of my account jump. I have always heard scared money doesnt win, but I think it is hard not to care win you place a big bet. I think betting on sports is a lot more fun, profitable, than most table games. Like fantasy football but better. Makes you interested in games you would otherwise overlook. Just remember gamble responsible

**Quarm** · 10-25-05, 02:04 PM

Thats an easy question - because the bookie always has the edge, just like casinos.
You think a 20% bonus gives the player the edge over the bookie? It doesnt.

Also winners tend to come back for more and bookies can get back what they lost to them, while losers reach a point of bancrupty and the loss is final.

**natrass** · 10-25-05, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Quarm

Thats an easy question - because the bookie always has the edge, just like casinos.
You think a 20% bonus gives the player the edge over the bookie? It doesnt.

.

Thats true. I always thought if I was an established bookie I would definately have loss rebates ahead of joining bonuses in my priorities. Bookies love losers so they should all rebate X% of losses. Good business to do that.

**Senator7** · 10-25-05, 02:11 PM

It comes down to a few D's:

Discipline
Dedication
Delusions

With a job in politics, I talk to a lot of average sportsbettors (high rolling squares, the books' and touts' favorites) and they would never think of visiting a site like SBR to see how good their sportsbook is. They would never consider spending time researching or getting help or opinions from a betting forum. The average sports bettor is amazingly uninformed. He bets from intuition and emotion. He does very little research. The average American male believes he knows more than anybody else in the world about three things: sex, poker, and football. In their minds, they're experts and picking winners ATS is easy. They might have done really well the last few years picking winners straight up and they think they're football experts. They try betting ATS and they go 2-5 the first week. Knowing they are better than that and saying that the teams got lucky or it was an off week, they bet more the next week. They go 2-5 again. This is how it all starts. Its a matter of laziness, ego, and lack of discipline.

This actually happened in a contest between my stepdad and I. He's a very knowledgeable football guy who used to work for the Packers. He picks 70%-75% winners straight up in the NFL year in and year out. When I first started betting sports, he told me it was easy and he could make a fortune at it. I laughed at him. So we each put up $100 for the best season ATS in the NFL. I won with 55%, he had 45%. Needless to say, he learned a lesson about the pointspread and reality. This is a lesson the average sportsbettor never learns.

The sportsbook does not beat the player. The sportsbook gives the player a chance to beat himself. Unfortunately, most do.

Senator 7

**Quarm** · 10-25-05, 02:19 PM

Great post senator. Even if you pick 2/3 winners you can still lose big time if you get no value.

I dont think "Joe who bets 20$ every sunday on his NFL team" should be counted in thou.
Would be interesting to know how many SBR/RX readers are successful. But theres lots of scalpers here prolly, who dont count as "winners" either.

**Relentless** · 10-25-05, 04:28 PM

Great Post Senator. I think that really sums things up. People don't know how much they don't know.

**jjgold** · 10-25-05, 04:37 PM

Most lose because of reasons mentioned above but vig does most in

**natrass** · 10-25-05, 05:03 PM

Has anyone ever found an inverse relationship between the amount of effort/research you do before betting to results. I have concluded that sometimes reseaching can be a bit of a case of trying to convince yourself.

As you said once jj ... lack of winners is the biggest cause.

**JoshW** · 10-25-05, 05:08 PM

If anyone bets for a whole year, every day, I would guess less than 1% come out winners. Fewer bets more random winners, but over the long term is very difficult.

**Max Levine** · 10-25-05, 05:19 PM

Good point, Natrass. Too many times, I pick a game I like and then look for stats that will confirm my play. I must have less than 40% winners of those.

I play better when I don't know enough about either team and then do my research.

Max

**jjgold** · 10-25-05, 05:48 PM

40 bets a year and you can win but thats about it

**Illusion** · 10-26-05, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

40 bets a year and you can win but thats about it

Don't you do that in an average weekend jj? By the way, you need to change your avatar...switch it up bud.

**onlooker** · 10-26-05, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

By the way, you need to change your avatar...switch it up bud.

Spot is getting kind old.

**Illusion** · 10-26-05, 02:21 AM

I know looker, I will have mine changed by the weekend.

**onlooker** · 10-26-05, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

I know looker, I will have mine changed by the weekend.