Rockies ml +147

[stevenash]

I think it'll still be a profit even if you bet the Dodgers every game from now till the end of the season. They are going to finish something like 105-57 I bet. Same with Astros. The public is still risk averse when it comes to taking baseball favorites, so the juice will still be lower than what it should be.

105 is rarified air.
101 is more like it, but when you have a Kershaw 105 is obtainable.
Last years Cubs won 103, this Dodger team is not the '98 Yankees, they are going to be a 100 win division winner, but this is not an elite team. The starting pitching is solid, the closer is solid, the lineup has some holes.

[Otters27]

Just got off plane and checked score. Meltdown.

[stevenash]

I think it'll still be a profit even if you bet the Dodgers every game from now till the end of the season. .

They will go like 51 and 34 to finish the season.
They are not going to win 16 in a row, they have an 11 game win streak now.

OK, assuming they go 51 and 34 and that's pretty close to accurate, that makes them +17 flat units.

The Dodgers will not be underdogs in many spots, and right now they are overinflated by the books.
Kershaw was -254 the other night, Alex Wood was -221, Dodgers have been -200 or better 3 out of the last 5 games.
Hell, today they were the cheapest they've been at -154 in over a week

Date	vs.	Score	M/L	O/U
06/25/17	COL	W 12-6	W -154	O 8.5
06/24/17	COL	W 4-0	W -254	U 7
06/23/17	COL	W 6-1	W -221	U 8
06/22/17	NYM	W 6-3	W -173	O 8.5
06/21/17	NYM	W 8-2	W -228	O 9
06/20/17	NYM	W 12-0	W -211	O 9
06/19/17	NYM	W 10-6	W -285	O 7
06/18/17	@ CIN	W 8-7	W -170	O 10.5
06/17/17	@ CIN	W 10-2	W -144	O 10.5
06/16/17	@ CIN	W 3-1	W -164	U 9.5

The average Dodger betting line is in the -170 to -180 range.

If the average betting line was only -150, that's 3:2
If the Dodgers went 51 and 34 across their last 85 games, that's 60 percent, the break even mark at -150 odds.
51 wins from here on out makes them a 102 game winner, and that's pretty much where they will wind up give or take a couple of games max.

Two things, Kershaw will always be between -220 and -250 at home, and up to -300 against shit teams. Kershaw will almost always be -160 or more on the road, Wood about ten tp 20 cents cheaper.
Alex Wood will always be over inflated too.

If the Dodgers lose 4 of Wood's starts across the next 85 games, and the Dodgers lose three games that Kershaw starts down the road, that's not 7* lost, that's more like 14 to 16 units lost.

Thing is, average betting line for the Dodgers the next 85 games will be around -175. I was using -150 as an example.
At -175 Dodgers would have to win 56 games or 107 for the season to break even.

Are you willing to bet that the Dodgers are going to win 107 games to break even, and win 108 to win a couple of dollars, just to say ha-ha, told you so.

If you think the Dodgers are going to win 108 games, I'll book your bet and I'll take the under 108.

And I am not disrespecting you or anything like that, just trying to show how the books make money.

[JMobile]

Taking a unit on this. Need a bet.

Did it win?

[crackerjack]

They will go like 51 and 34 to finish the season.
They are not going to win 16 in a row, they have an 11 game win streak now.

OK, assuming they go 51 and 34 and that's pretty close to accurate, that makes them +17 flat units.

The Dodgers will not be underdogs in many spots, and right now they are overinflated by the books.
Kershaw was -254 the other night, Alex Wood was -221, Dodgers have been -200 or better 3 out of the last 5 games.
Hell, today they were the cheapest they've been at -154 in over a week

Date	vs.	Score	M/L	O/U
06/25/17	COL	W 12-6	W -154	O 8.5
06/24/17	COL	W 4-0	W -254	U 7
06/23/17	COL	W 6-1	W -221	U 8
06/22/17	NYM	W 6-3	W -173	O 8.5
06/21/17	NYM	W 8-2	W -228	O 9
06/20/17	NYM	W 12-0	W -211	O 9
06/19/17	NYM	W 10-6	W -285	O 7
06/18/17	@ CIN	W 8-7	W -170	O 10.5
06/17/17	@ CIN	W 10-2	W -144	O 10.5
06/16/17	@ CIN	W 3-1	W -164	U 9.5

The average Dodger betting line is in the -170 to -180 range.

If the average betting line was only -150, that's 3:2
If the Dodgers went 51 and 34 across their last 85 games, that's 60 percent, the break even mark at -150 odds.
51 wins from here on out makes them a 102 game winner, and that's pretty much where they will wind up give or take a couple of games max.

Two things, Kershaw will always be between -220 and -250 at home, and up to -300 against shit teams. Kershaw will almost always be -160 or more on the road, Wood about ten tp 20 cents cheaper.
Alex Wood will always be over inflated too.

If the Dodgers lose 4 of Wood's starts across the next 85 games, and the Dodgers lose three games that Kershaw starts down the road, that's not 7* lost, that's more like 14 to 16 units lost.

Thing is, average betting line for the Dodgers the next 85 games will be around -175. I was using -150 as an example.
At -175 Dodgers would have to win 56 games or 107 for the season to break even.

Are you willing to bet that the Dodgers are going to win 107 games to break even, and win 108 to win a couple of dollars, just to say ha-ha, told you so.

If you think the Dodgers are going to win 108 games, I'll book your bet and I'll take the under 108.

And I am not disrespecting you or anything like that, just trying to show how the books make money.

Great post

[lakerboy]

Did it win?

Yes. I had first five

[JMobile]

Yes. I had first five

[brellis23]

What's the play today lakerboy??