Buy low sell high is garbage!

[arie1985]

I tried several times to "buy low sell high"

1) First, in the WNBA yesterday - it failed:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3392874-wnba-washington-mystics-chicago-sky-live-discussion-betting.html

2) Then today betting on Steve Jonhson to win against M. Zverev after losing the 1st set, and he did well leading 3-0 in the 2nd set and then I got him for odds of @2.00 - and he started cracking ... lost 7-5

3) Now I have another bet on Nishikori, with prematch odds of 1.33 to win against Anderson, picking him @1.80 during the 2nd set to win against Anderson ...

Currently Nishkori leads 5-3 in the 2nd set (Anderson to serve now) but I wouldn't be surprised if he also gets funny in the 3rd set, especially due to the fact he only broke Anderson once in the match (only once) and yet the odds on him right now to beat Anderson are @ 1.40 - unreal.

So who said "buy low sell high" is worth it?!

[Sam Odom]

OK

then try buy high , sell low

[arie1985]

OK

then try buy high , sell low

Like have an NBA game with opening line of 210.5 and bet OVER 230.5 in live? No thank you.
But I'm pretty sure that line of 230.5 is provided for a reason ... instincts always tell me "buy low sell high" so for me 230.5 is too high (need to sell i.e. pick under) but seems like this strategy of betting is not really worth it, is it?

[RudyRuetigger]

trying looking for coupons

[jjgold]

follow trends

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Like have an NBA game with opening line of 210.5 and bet OVER 230.5 in live? No thank you.
But I'm pretty sure that line of 230.5 is provided for a reason ... instincts always tell me "buy low sell high" so for me 230.5 is too high (need to sell i.e. pick under) but seems like this strategy of betting is not really worth it, is it?

The version of "buy low" I kinda like is when a favorite falls behind early in a game, such that I can bet them live and all they have to do is win the game.

So, say the Cavs or Spurs or somebody is a double digit favorite, but fall behind by 15 in the first half of an NBA game. The live line might come up pick em-ish, meaning I just need the better team to come back and win the game, a target I know they'll be trying to hit. That usually appeals to me.

Heh, of course, I'm not typing this sitting on a beach on a private island, so obviously the idea hasn't made me rich!

[d2bets]

I tried several times to "buy low sell high"

1) First, in the WNBA yesterday - it failed:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3392874-wnba-washington-mystics-chicago-sky-live-discussion-betting.html

2) Then today betting on Steve Jonhson to win against M. Zverev after losing the 1st set, and he did well leading 3-0 in the 2nd set and then I got him for odds of @2.00 - and he started cracking ... lost 7-5

3) Now I have another bet on Nishikori, with prematch odds of 1.33 to win against Anderson, picking him @1.80 during the 2nd set to win against Anderson ...

Currently Nishkori leads 5-3 in the 2nd set (Anderson to serve now) but I wouldn't be surprised if he also gets funny in the 3rd set, especially due to the fact he only broke Anderson once in the match (only once) and yet the odds on him right now to beat Anderson are @ 1.40 - unreal.

So who said "buy low sell high" is worth it?!

Buy low sell high is perfect, it's just trying to figure out what is "low" and what is "high" is the trick.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Quit gambling.

Buy silver bullion.

Thank me later.

[Waterstpub87]

Stupid idea from the beginning. Relies on a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. Instead of focusing on fulfilling platitudes, maybe learn how to handicap games.

[jjgold]

do it in the stock market and get destroyed

[Sam Odom]

...maybe learn how to handicap games.

SBR's annual Capping Seminar led by jjgold runs June 2-4... sign-up is free

[grease lightnin]

That is not a sufficient sample size.

[grease lightnin]

Stupid idea from the beginning. Relies on a fundamental misunderstanding of probability. Instead of focusing on fulfilling platitudes, maybe learn how to handicap games.

Ian Poulter was 250-1 to win Players Championship

He is 40-1 to win BMW.

You think the actual probability of him winning changed that much???

[Waterstpub87]

Ian Poulter was 250-1 to win Players Championship

He is 40-1 to win BMW.

You think the actual probability of him winning changed that much???

?

I don't have a clue what you are talking about. How is golf related to the OP thesis of " If the over before the game was 210, and they scored alot, and a live bet is 230, bet the under"

[arie1985]

Currently Nishkori leads 5-3 in the 2nd set (Anderson to serve now) but I wouldn't be surprised if he also gets funny in the 3rd set, especially due to the fact he only broke Anderson once in the match (only once) and yet the odds on him right now to beat Anderson are @ 1.40 - unreal.

There was no break of serve in the 3rd set until Anderson was leading 5-4 in the 3rd.
Then Nishikori was trailing 0-40, and managed to save 3 break points.

This ****er now needs to serve when trailing 6-5 in the 3rd set and only a tie break would then decide the match (unless Anderson manages to break him in the 12th game of the 3rd set).

The odds on Nishikori when was trailing 0-40 were @6.00 - unreal, right?

Anyway the @1.80 that I picked him for is far far away from being a "solid" bet right now.

[arie1985]

?

I don't have a clue what you are talking about. How is golf related to the OP thesis of " If the over before the game was 210, and they scored alot, and a live bet is 230, bet the under"

Yes, I agree I have no idea what this means but what's your opinion about the scenario I just gave? If you have an NBA game with initial opening line of 210.5 (or even 205.5) and the live line is 232.5 - would you bet the under automatically?

[arie1985]

There was no break of serve in the 3rd set until Anderson was leading 5-4 in the 3rd.
Then Nishikori was trailing 0-40, and managed to save 3 break points.

This ****er now needs to serve when trailing 6-5 in the 3rd set and only a tie break would then decide the match (unless Anderson manages to break him in the 12th game of the 3rd set).

The odds on Nishikori when was trailing 0-40 were @6.00 - unreal, right?

Anyway the @1.80 that I picked him for is far far away from being a "solid" bet right now.

Nishikori is such a ****er .... it is a tie break, Anderson leading 4-2, odds on Nishi are @3.40 .... now it's 4-3 and the odds on Nishi are @2.50

Would you, hypothetically speaking, pick a @1.33 favorite (prematch) with live odds of @2.50 to win in such a scenario?

[Waterstpub87]

Yes, I agree I have no idea what this means but what's your opinion about the scenario I just gave? If you have an NBA game with initial opening line of 210.5 (or even 205.5) and the live line is 232.5 - would you bet the under automatically?

No!!!!

Like I said before, it is a new situation. I explained this in the thread you posted before.

[arie1985]

No!!!!

Like I said before, it is a new situation. I explained this in the thread you posted before.

Which thread? Sorry I am not sure which one is it.

And Nishikori won the tie break 8-6.

So picking the favorite here at the extreme point of 0-40 when serving 5-4 in the 3rd set for @6.00 would have been valuable and then after his correction you could potentially "hedge" if you wish on odds of @3.00 on Anderson, yet ... that "hedge" would make you lose money as Anderson lost.

I don't think this "buy low sell high" makes sense ....

And I understand you're referring me to another thread, but can I just ask here if we're in the midst of it - if that's a "new situation" as you refer to it then in your opinion the very initial opening line is meaningless and you should ignore it when betting in live?!

What if a @1.03 favorite like Nadal is trailing a set and 0-2 in the 2nd set against a huge underdog - would you not pick Nadal in that case for @2.00 because he's such a heavy favorite? (and you know he's a heavy favorite because of those very initial odds I'm referring to) - is this not the case?

[Waterstpub87]

copy pasted from the other thread

You aren't buying low. The situation has changed:

Imagine that the -6.5 close pregame is the best estimate of the final score prior to tip off. Once the game has tipped off, the -6.5 is meaningless. You have an anchoring bias, where that was the fair price in your mind, and now that it is cheaper/more expensive, you think it is a better deal.

For the total, using your example of 207.5 equates to roughly 4.32 points per minute or so (ignoring foul shots at the end if the game is close, starters sitting later, ect. ect.). If five minutes have passes with no score, the fair value is now 207.5 -21.6, or 186. Betting the over has no value just because it is less than 207.5.

[arie1985]

copy pasted from the other thread

You aren't buying low. The situation has changed:

Imagine that the -6.5 close pregame is the best estimate of the final score prior to tip off. Once the game has tipped off, the -6.5 is meaningless. You have an anchoring bias, where that was the fair price in your mind, and now that it is cheaper/more expensive, you think it is a better deal.

For the total, using your example of 207.5 equates to roughly 4.32 points per minute or so (ignoring foul shots at the end if the game is close, starters sitting later, ect. ect.). If five minutes have passes with no score, the fair value is now 207.5 -21.6, or 186. Betting the over has no value just because it is less than 207.5.

So you would never place a live bet because of that "anchoring bias"?
In that case what's the point of betting? The odds are super stacked against you ... !

I thought the "anchoring bias" has some value and is not 100% meaningless.

[Waterstpub87]

So you would never place a live bet because of that "anchoring bias"?
In that case what's the point of betting? The odds are super stacked against you ... !

I thought the "anchoring bias" has some value and is not 100% meaningless.

Don't place live bets. If I placed live bets, it would be a more advanced based on the second paragraph, plus looking at how different situations effect performance. I would also look at how many minutes certain players had played thus far and compare that to their average minutes and go from there.

I tend to beat the close enough that I should win long term. It has been a cold couple of years in this regard. All hobbies cost something.

[KVB]

WaterSt is right about handicapping but the beginning steps of handicapping often involve creative questions.

Start asking on a larger scale things like “what happens with the live line extremes? Does it tend to go Under the highest live line of a game, Over the lowest? To what extent does it occur? What are the circumstances leading up to a high live line and at what point in the game is it offered? If you can round up enough relevant factors, can you make it profitable against the high vig of live lines?...the only real question to ask.

You’ll need to accumulate data, and break it down. Some data is harder to get as sometimes the games end on misleading quarters or halves. For example, a team can go up 20 points in the first quarter in the NBA, only to end the first quarter down a few buckets.

Live lines can expand wildly in those times.

It’s a difficult task, it’s a more intense form of market timing that comes with wins and losses like everything else, but once you understand what’s being brought in the large leagues, the way it’s brought, when broken down, is a lot less surprising and even at times predictable.

But is it profitable? I believe the lines can be very soft at times, but it’s a wild ride to get to them.

And remember, WaterSt is correct when he says a new line offered is a new situation to calculate, but don’t be surprised to see the new situations, when added up, all tend to form a larger picture.

How ready can you be to assess each new situation as calculated by the live betting software to exploit the soft lines?

[KVB]

...The situation has changed...

This is true and the key is to find where the bettor's reactions to the changes are creating profitable odds.

It's a difficult long term picture to gather.

[Swinging Johnson]

Handicap your best two games on the board...or one...or none if nothing appeals to you. Then shop for the best line. You need multiple outs in order to do so. That's the best advice I can give you.

[KVB]

?

I don't have a clue what you are talking about. How is golf related to the OP thesis of " If the over before the game was 210, and they scored alot, and a live bet is 230, bet the under"

It was an all around stupid post he made, probably born out of his "perspective."

Grease acts like and idiot, when called out for it, he'll say he was trolling. He's a smart guy, just a bit arrogant in his "perspective."

[INVEGA MAN]

been there

[grease lightnin]

I didn't read the original post in depth. 30 second work break. I thought the guy was saying "buy low, sell high" in a general sense does not work.

My example was buying low is having an angle that the average joe won't see... and buying high is when the angle has already come to fruition and the price becomes too high and there is no value left.

And yes Kevber, that is my perspective.

[TheMoneyShot]

To the OP...

You have to figure out what your plans are and stick through it for the entire season etc.

If your goal is to trade... or hedge... hi/low whatever... you need to project lopsided areas of the game. Very hard to do.

Or

Just pick a game and forget it... don't worry about buying and selling... don't even look at Live Wagering.

It's going to drive you nuts.

[cashin81]

Only after the game will you know what low was.

[arie1985]

Only after the game will you know what low was.

Monday morning quarterback.

[arie1985]

Don't place live bets. If I placed live bets, it would be a more advanced based on the second paragraph, plus looking at how different situations effect performance. I would also look at how many minutes certain players had played thus far and compare that to their average minutes and go from there.

I tend to beat the close enough that I should win long term. It has been a cold couple of years in this regard. All hobbies cost something.

I actually did place live bets like you said - I took the Cavs today -17.5 in live betting during the 1st Q (during a timeout), odds were ok @1.925 (still paying 7.5% vig but that's how gambling works) ... and it won.

Cavs opened @-9.5 spread, I took them for -17.5 ignoring the initial lines like you said.

Reason - I Believed it was going to be a blowout, like math, NBA likes Cavs as home team to be in a tight game and when away = blowout (unlike last year vs. Toronto in the ECF when home games were blowout) ... is it scripted? Likely, too many fouls were called, Cleveland went to the line so many times, it was a no brainer, the refs/NBA control the game and the pace and the scores.

Do I believe the NBA is rigged and that helps capping some games? Absolutely!

[champlain]

I think you can make money betting the underdog on the road in this finals. Both seemed to play better on the road. Cavs won 7 straight road game and the last 3 were blowouts. If you are betting celtics, it's on you considering the cavs have 3 players better than anyone the celts have.

[krk1030]

buy high sell higher

[Dollars2Donuts]

Pick up things for free using Craigslist 'free section'.

Then rent a table at a flea market and sell them.

Problems solved