Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's

[Jayvegas420]

Better than Sacre/Pangos Zags?
Better than Adam Morrison Zags?

I guess we'll see.

[kidcudi92]

Are they? Haven't noticed, will definitely take a look at them for their next game. Louisville had been covering like crazy (16-5 in their first 21) but has lost ATS the last 2, however one of those 2 games they suspended 2 starters before the game.

furman has been a bet and don't even sweat in the right spots this year

solid team

[unde0087]

I posted this somewhere else, but to recap: Gonzaga beat Arizona, they won in Florida, they won at Tennessee and vs. Iowa State. They are deep, have size, perimeter shooting and defense... they have a McDonald's All American point guard who's a Wooden Award top 20 finalist, 4 good guards and 4 good big men, and a good coach. I may have said this in years past, but THIS looks like the best Gonzaga team ever.

I believe they'd be 1st or 2nd in the PAC 12, Big Ten, or Big East. I think they'd easily be top 3 in the Big XII. They'd be top 5 in the ACC, but that conference is all about how the conf schedule lands.

While I respect your opinion, I just don't agree. Are they a good team and do they have more depth than usual? sure. I just don't see them as that team you do. I think come tourney time when they face the power 5 monster teams they will get destroyed on the low block. Sorry but Karnowski isn't going to get it done vs the front line of blue blood teams.

[astro61200]

There are a few teams this year with great ATS records. Gonzaga at 18-4 is the best. Louisville/Creighton at 16-7, Elon at 15-8, Colorado State/Arkansas St at 14-6, MTSU 15-8, Marshall/Denver 15-7, Harvard 10-3, South Dakota/Wofford 17-7, Furman 12-5, SMU 15-4, Northwestern 15-6.

Can stick to just betting them and make a pretty penny. 192-78 ATS between those teams, good for 71.1% ATS. $100 a piece on them would put you at +$10,620 so far. Not bad.

[DOM_Toretto]

While I respect your opinion, I just don't agree. Are they a good team and do they have more depth than usual? sure. I just don't see them as that team you do. I think come tourney time when they face the power 5 monster teams they will get destroyed on the low block. Sorry but Karnowski isn't going to get it done vs the front line of blue blood teams.

Unde I respect you too, but I think you're way off here. Maybe you haven't paid very much attention to this team? The low block is of no concern. Karnowski is 300 pounds and can't be moved, and has some of the best offensive moves in all of college. Collins is a 5-star stretch center who can defend & shoot the 3. Zags have handled elite front courts already in SMC, Zona, Florida. Which blue blood is going to be that much more challenging down low?

If anything, I'd be concerned with zags going up against elite guard play (which the WCC does not have this year). Idk how Goss/Melson/Perkins would fare defending Monk/Fox or Mason/Graham or Hart/Brunson. But I basically just listed the other 3 teams I could see in the final four with them, lol. Because I believe great guard play gets teams to Final Fours.

[astro61200]

Unde I respect you too, but I think you're way off here. Maybe you haven't paid very much attention to this team? The low block is of no concern. Karnowski is 300 pounds and can't be moved, and has some of the best offensive moves in all of college. Collins is a 5-star stretch center who can defend & shoot the 3. Zags have handled elite front courts already in SMC, Zona, Florida. Which blue blood is going to be that much more challenging down low?

If anything, I'd be concerned with zags going up against elite guard play (which the WCC does not have this year). Idk how Goss/Melson/Perkins would fare defending Monk/Fox or Mason/Graham or Hart/Brunson. But I basically just listed the other 3 teams I could see in the final four with them, lol. Because I believe great guard play gets teams to Final Fours.

I'll be surprised if UK makes it out of the first weekend.

[unde0087]

Unde I respect you too, but I think you're way off here. Maybe you haven't paid very much attention to this team? The low block is of no concern. Karnowski is 300 pounds and can't be moved, and has some of the best offensive moves in all of college. Collins is a 5-star stretch center who can defend & shoot the 3. Zags have handled elite front courts already in SMC, Zona, Florida. Which blue blood is going to be that much more challenging down low?

If anything, I'd be concerned with zags going up against elite guard play (which the WCC does not have this year). Idk how Goss/Melson/Perkins would fare defending Monk/Fox or Mason/Graham or Hart/Brunson. But I basically just listed the other 3 teams I could see in the final four with them, lol. Because I believe great guard play gets teams to Final Fours.

I watch pretty much every game Dom. They are the chosen ones around these parts because both D1 schools in Montana are in the tank and everyone of their games are shown. UofM had a good run when Larry was here but now that he went to Utah that program is shit.

I don't see this team making it to a final 4, I don't even see them advancing to the Elite 8. Hopefully they make it out of the first weekend so they don't embarrass themselves like the last time they were given a top seed.

Main reason though for me is, game situations. Zags will most likely go over 3 months without being challenged until they get to the tournament. That is a huge disadvantage when facing teams from conferences that top teams are battling in tight games night in and night out. It is one thing to practice game situations but it is another to be in the middle of an elimination game, against a team as good or better, having to make buckets or defensive stops especially if your team hasn't been in that position almost the entire year.

[El Nino]

Zags have the best 1st half point differential in NCAA this season as well. Books are adjusting and it doesn't matter. Hammer Zags 1st half and game and don't sweat it.

[magsmeplease]

Maybe because 95% of their schedule is against teams that won't even sniff the tournament. You think they would be doing that in the ACC, Big 12, Big East or Big 10? Not even close. I think we can equate that to the almost 100th rated SOS. I think everyone else in the top 25 average around the 20s.

I like Mark Few, got respect for the guy and what he has accomplished, but this is nothing more than what we see every season. Few out recruits his conference 10 fold. IMO, they will by far be the weakest #1 seed in the tournament and most likely be the first #1 out like the last time.

You should look up how analytics work... the offensive and defensive efficiency is adjusted, the reason it's called adjusted is because they take into account the strength of the opponents. They also get more accurate as the season goes along.

SOS is antiquated just like RPI is, which is why the committee will be moving away from them as tools next year and using a combo of pomroy/saragin/bpi starting next year.

I'm not arguing that the WCC is as good as those other conferences, but to simply discount a team because of it's conference is silly. No they probably wouldn't be undefeated if they were in the ACC, but I think that there is evidence to support that they may still be a #1 seed.

[DOM_Toretto]

Main reason though for me is, game situations. Zags will most likely go over 3 months without being challenged until they get to the tournament. That is a huge disadvantage when facing teams from conferences that top teams are battling in tight games night in and night out. It is one thing to practice game situations but it is another to be in the middle of an elimination game, against a team as good or better, having to make buckets or defensive stops especially if your team hasn't been in that position almost the entire year.

I hear you there, but it's not like this is the undefeated Kentucky team loaded with freshmen. Zags have seniors, juniors, and power 5 conf. transfers who have all been tested before - earlier this season and in previous seasons.

[astro61200]

There are a few teams this year with great ATS records. Gonzaga at 18-4 is the best. Louisville/Creighton at 16-7, Elon at 15-8, Colorado State/Arkansas St at 14-6, MTSU 15-8, Marshall/Denver 15-7, Harvard 10-3, South Dakota/Wofford 17-7, Furman 12-5, SMU 15-4, Northwestern 15-6.

Can stick to just betting them and make a pretty penny. 192-78 ATS between those teams, good for 71.1% ATS. $100 a piece on them would put you at +$10,620 so far. Not bad.

Blindly bet on the 3 teams with great ATS records today. SMU covered, Northwestern +11.5 and they're up 9 at the half, then Virginia (14-7 ATS) -4.5 and they're up 14 at the break. May just stick to only betting these teams the rest of the way.

[omega]

Are they? Haven't noticed, will definitely take a look at them for their next game. Louisville had been covering like crazy (16-5 in their first 21) but has lost ATS the last 2, however one of those 2 games they suspended 2 starters before the game.

They don't have the highest covering percentage (70%) but they have one of the highest covering margins (7.1 points). Gonzaga is 81.8% and 6.6 points.

It works the other way too. LSU is 3-11 ATS at home. They were beating Arkansas and somehow STILL managed to lose the game by 8, giving Arkansas the cover (-6).