Patriots line creep: will early Pats bettors be rewarded in 2 weeks ?

[Snowball]

Will the line continue to move higher than -3 (-110)
-3 (-115) to -4 area or even -4+ ?

[Snowball]

p.s. SBR webmasters need to modify this poll timeout,
who in the world can think or type that fast is beyond me.

You can only add a poll to a thread within 1 minutes of posting the thread.

[DOM_Toretto]

I can see line growing to 4.5 or 5 by kickoff

[Snowball]

There could be a snowball effect
if the line moves ppl will chase it higher.

[Goat Milk]

I was thinking most average joes will be on ATL, no? Average joes won't bet till the weekend of.

[Snowball]

I was thinking most average joes will be on ATL, no? Average joes won't bet till the weekend of.

Lots of Patriot haters in this country. They already had a strong hate base
and now that Belichick, Brady and Kraft are all big league Trump supporters
it's flame on. But they still can't shake the aura.

[KVB]

At +3.5 Atlanta will gain extra pressure. It will not be easy to move that line. I'll get into the forecasts later.

At this point, I don't think there is enough money in the world to move to 3.5. From early looks, it's a well played line. We still have a bit of time though, and information is still coming in and being processed, but that line looks solid.

Good Luck Snowball. Be Good.

[Snowball]

that line looks solid

reports say it hasn't been tested yet.

action is sparse.

[johnnyvegas13]

I can see line growing to 4.5 or 5 by kickoff

Doubt it

3.5 at max

[Snowball]

let's face it, this line is a gift for Pats backers.

who wants to stick their neck out with the Falcons
and only get a field goal ? pretty stupid.

[Seaweed]

Line may always move depending on weather

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Barring a QB injury, it's staying on three with wavering juice.

[RockBottom]

Many people who play the dog in Vegas will just play Atl ML. I would think NE winning by 1-2 would be huge for the books.

[KVB]

reports say it hasn't been tested yet.

action is sparse.

Being able to predict this is part of winning at gambling. If you now why the line opens where it does, and moves to where it closes you will go a long way towards winning long term.

I know why it's opened where it has, and it will likely close in the same spot. I can see the pressures coming because I understand why market moving money is making decisions.

That line is intentionally solid from the outset.

[Snowball]

That line is intentionally solid from the outset.

not so solid, one day it's moved 10 on the ML and 5 on the spread vig.
just wait for the whale sightings and talk to start in earnest.

nothing secret about the starting line, it's a neutral field and both teams
look great. -3 to the Pats was automatic. Falcons have the reputation of
failure. I say the whales push this to 4 or a tad higher. The Patriot bettors
are going to buy, they don't care.. there is room here.

[KVB]

not so solid, one day it's moved 10 on the ML and 5 on the spread vig.
just wait for the whale sightings and talk to start in earnest.

nothing secret about the starting line, it's a neutral field and both teams
look great. -3 to the Pats was automatic. Falcons have the reputation of
failure. I say the whales push this to 4 or a tad higher. The Patriot bettors
are going to buy, they don't care.. there is room here.

Have you made a line for this game and compared it to the opening spread? There are many ways to handicap a game but do you know what drives the decision of "whales."

I've made three forecasts, and they don't agree with you.

Do you consider a fan that bets a huge amount on his team to be a whale? Do you think a wealthy sports fan can move the markets? Do you think a Texas billionaire betting on the Patriots because Atlanta has a history of failure can move the markets?

What have you predicted the score to be?

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just trying to assess where you are coming from. I can assure you that market moving money will counter a Patriots move, it will be up to the book to decide.

[Snowball]

of course whales move lines, their money talks and it's not in yet.
I am taking the Pats, and like any Pats bettor who has made his mind up,
I don't want the line to move more. This means I want the prediction it
can go higher to be wrong, I'm just trying to decide when to start taking it.
The threat it can go higher or will finish higher means I locked in some ML
almost a full 2 weeks ahead, which I actually hate doing.

[lakerboy]

Line will NOT move until super Sunday and even most likely not then. A line move leaves huge exposure.

[Snowball]

Line will NOT move until super Sunday and even most likely not then. A line move leaves huge exposure.

This is not true. What does leave huge exposure is taking a surplus of action
and NOT moving the line.

[KVB]

of course whales move lines...

Whales bet, the bookmaker moves the lines.

Sure there is some computer action behind it, but bookmakers are still very watchful.

It's going to be very hard to move this line.

As far as deciding, often times we wait and whatever loss comes from movement could be considered a price to pay to wait to gain more information.

Sometimes it's worth it, sometimes it's not.

This is going to be a close game, down to the wire.

[lakerboy]

This is not true. What does leave huge exposure is taking a surplus of action
and NOT moving the line.

A move to 3.5 and sharps would swallow up the falcons. The line is right IMO. I have pats-1.8. books can't put out less than 3. They will gladly settle on different ml juices both ways.

[KVB]

This is not true. What does leave huge exposure is taking a surplus of action
and NOT moving the line.

You think the book just put out a -3 because of a neutral field and team are doing well?

No, they know exactly why they opened the line where it is and know the exposure that is there. As I do, the books know what type of action to expect from the opener. There is no surprise of exposure. Any move is intentional.

[KVB]

Line will NOT move until super Sunday and even most likely not then. A line move leaves huge exposure.

If it moves then, they will most certainly be steering money. Sometimes, it can move not because of action coming in, but because of the desire to generate action.

But the Super Bowl should get plenty of action, one would think.

[KVB]

...I have pats-1.8. books can't put out less than 3. They will gladly settle on different ml juices both ways.

If you read my posts through the playoffs you know I offer three forecasts. A sharp forecast, a forecast that stacks percentages, and a non-predictive public gauge. The performance of each is tracked in the thread.

My raw score for the non predictive public gauge has New England winning by two points; you agree with the public gauge. The other forecasts do not agree with you.

I do agree about the prices at 3 feeding the books. It's a feast and New England trailing by 1 or 2 and kicking a field goal to win just might be a nice dessert for them.

It will probably be a good game to the end where we don't have an answer until then.

If any team gets out too far, live bet the other side...lol.

[Snowball]

you guys seem to think Vegas will happily sit on a Patriot surplus just because
it's at a push number of -3. They can't do that. The chances of a push at -3
saving them from possible loss due to their overexposure to Pats action is too
unlikely. They will move to 3.5 to take the sharp Atlanta bets, then if that is
too much they will move it back again once they are balanced.
If I were a Falcons bettor I would certainly wait for this possibility.

[KVB]

I agree snowball, but the movement will be to generate action, not to defend from it. The originators knew what they were doing when they set the line and work with bookmakers.

You are making two assumptions that can be argued. One is that there is wildly uneven money on the Patriots and two is that the books seek balance.

You could easily be wrong on both.

[JayDr3am]

line wont budge

[Snowball]

You are making two assumptions that can be argued. One is that there is wildly uneven money on the Patriots and two is that the books seek balance.

You could easily be wrong on both.

I'm not talking about the offshore books, or the street books (who are felt very late)
although they all seek balance, if they are professional; if not, they are gambling, not booking.
Vegas books always seek balance, and Vegas drives the line.
We're talking about mostly public corporations, run by accountants and computer data,
they make money on the vig, not on picking sides. The linesmens job is basically done,
the line is set barring any surprise changes, which appear very unlikely..it is one of the
most commonly repeated fallacies to say Vegas casinos pick sides. The only time that
happens is if they f-k up.

[RoyBacon]

At +3.5 Atlanta will gain extra pressure. It will not be easy to move that line. I'll get into the forecasts later.

At this point, I don't think there is enough money in the world to move to 3.5. From early looks, it's a well played line. We still have a bit of time though, and information is still coming in and being processed, but that line looks solid.

Good Luck Snowball. Be Good.

Would agree with this post. The line is well played as of now. But I still think we will see 3.5's and a decent chance to see -4 -115 with an outside chance at -4 -110. The NE money will flow too free at -3 imo. Not so much at -3.5 which is where I think it closes.

[KVB]

...it is one of the
most commonly repeated fallacies to say Vegas casinos pick sides...

It is you who is repeating a fallacy bought by the marketplace. It's not that bettors don't know things, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong. I've tried to help with that truth.

Here's one example...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3050399-equal-action-right-action-lol-didnt-read.html#post23537283

[manny24]

Alabama was a runaway freight train too

the -6.5 was like a gift from Vefas

[Snowball]

KVB, I looked at your thread, none of it addresses what I said, that:
...it is one of the most commonly repeated fallacies to say Vegas casinos pick sides...

if you are saying I am the one repeating fallacy by saying the above,
you don't know what you're talking about.Vegas casinos always seek dollar balance,
that is their fiduciary duty. If they failed to seek balance they would be sued. This
is why lines move late, the money pours in from not only Vegas but all the runners
whose street bookies call in their surplus and unload it in Vegas.

[KVB]

...Vegas casinos always seek dollar balance,
that is their fiduciary duty. If they failed to seek balance they would be sued. This
is why lines move late, the money pours in from not only Vegas but all the runners
whose street bookies call in their surplus and unload it in Vegas.

Lines move for a multitude of reasons, not just after the fact because of money came in.

As far as the fiduciary duty to seek dollar balance, you should re-read the post I linked.

It doesn't have to game by game, what if the book sought balance over a six month or year long period?

What if the books sought long term profit as I described in that post.

Would they be sued?

[POOLSIDE]

Interesting. I figured it would drop below 3 if anything.

[The Giant]

Interesting. I figured it would drop below 3 if anything.

I think it will too.