"It all evens out"

**The Prick** · 11-21-16, 03:33 PM

all evens out hoss hate to break it to ya

business as usual

move forward

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by The Prick

all evens out hoss hate to break it to ya

business as usual

move forward

no mathematical proof exists that shows you are right.

**trillz** · 11-21-16, 03:36 PM

It's not that serious pal

**freeVICK** · 11-21-16, 03:37 PM

It all evens out. True story

**biggie12** · 11-21-16, 03:39 PM

Another great articulated post from a professional gambler. This place is bonkers

**unde0087** · 11-21-16, 03:41 PM

Powell, very negative these days. You need a break buddy, you are stressed out

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

Another great articulated post from a professional gambler. This place is bonkers

I'm not a professional gambler and the vast majority of morons on here aren't either.

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

Powell, very negative these days. You need a break buddy, you are stressed out

How can you not be penetrating stressed when you lose EVERY game that comes down to the wire? I went 3-4 yesterday and I would make 6 of the same plays again. 3 games that I was covering for entire halves, up until 35 secs left in the whole game, etc. Things do NOT even out. If you get a ton of **** breaks early in the season and get behind the 8 ball, you will NOT recover more than likely

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 03:47 PM

Because you get used to it after you've done it for more than 5 minutes. You get pissed off for 10 minutes, go punch the bag, and move on. None of this involves rants on sbr every time you lose.

**freeVICK** · 11-21-16, 03:50 PM

Tpowell you are a little crybaby bitch. Go get laid son

**The Kraken** · 11-21-16, 03:51 PM

Same with poker, sometimes you get to the bottom of the rabbit hole and realize the rabbit has the gun

Either quit, or keep on keeping on

No other choices

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

Because you get used to it after you've done it for more than 5 minutes. You get pissed off for 10 minutes, go punch the bag, and move on. None of this involves rants on sbr every time you lose.

You people have no clue. I MAKE these penetrating lines. I could put out these lines a day before the oddsmakers do and you'll see that my numbers are just as good as Ken Pom's or anyone elses. If you were getting the breaks I've been getting, you wouldn't even be on SBR anymore

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

Tpowell you are a little crybaby bitch. Go get laid son

penetrate off you little Yankee bitch

**unde0087** · 11-21-16, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

How can you not be penetrating stressed when you lose EVERY game that comes down to the wire? I went 3-4 yesterday and I would make 6 of the same plays again. 3 games that I was covering for entire halves, up until 35 secs left in the whole game, etc. Things do NOT even out. If you get a ton of **** breaks early in the season and get behind the 8 ball, you will NOT recover more than likely

I hear ya, Was St fuked me saturday. They lead and we're covering the whole game until the last few minutes as they tanked, cost me a winning day. But honestly, if you are this pissed take this holiday week off, come back fresh. Emotional gambling is never going to turn out well. It's just going to make you force the issue until your both pissed and reloading.

Gambling isn't going anywhere, it will still be here after some time off

**Sam Odom** · 11-21-16, 03:54 PM

It's called 'regression toward the mean'

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by unde0087

I hear ya, Was St fuked me saturday. They lead and we're covering the whole game until the last few minutes as they tanked, cost me a winning day. But honestly, if you are this pissed take this holiday week off, come back fresh. Emotional gambling is never going to turn out well. It's just going to make you force the issue until your both pissed and reloading.

Gambling isn't going anywhere, it will still be here after some time off

I can't afford to do that though. These numbers are gifts. I have the market so down pat that I can't justify taking time off to justify my mental health

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

You people have no clue. I MAKE these penetrating lines. I could put out these lines a day before the oddsmakers do and you'll see that my numbers are just as good as Ken Pom's or anyone elses. If you were getting the breaks I've been getting, you wouldn't even be on SBR anymore

Dude, everyone has a PR now. It's not 1986 and you aren't special. I'll tell ya the lines sunday morning, it's not that hard.

**TheMoneyShot** · 11-21-16, 04:03 PM

They say it all evens out... but I'm still negative for some mysterious reason.

**jjgold** · 11-21-16, 04:05 PM

Bottom line is if you get too deep in the red regardless if you're a good handicapper it's very hard to get back to even because of the juice Because of the juice

**gauchojake** · 11-21-16, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

It's called 'regression toward the mean'

Sammy the hard part is figuring out where the mean actually is. It's down there somewhere...

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

Dude, everyone has a PR now. It's not 1986 and you aren't special. I'll tell ya the lines sunday morning, it's not that hard.

You will? You promise? Start off and do Wednesday's lines then. I'm sure you'll just use KenPom or something but you have my attention now. Everyone does NOT have a PR now. I guarantee you that less than 10% of the people posting in this thread have a legitimate power ratings system. Of those 10%, I bet over 75% of those set it and forget it instead of keeping track over the season

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Bottom line is if you get too deep in the red regardless if you're a good handicapper it's very hard to get back to even because of the juice Because of the juice

JJ may have had the smartest response in this thread.....

**Buffalo Nickle** · 11-21-16, 04:14 PM

It all evens out. You will not recognize the ones that go your way because you will think you were right all along. You only remember the bad beats. You are going to have horrific runs and you will have great runs. When you have a great run, you will think it is because of your genius or your numbers.

If you come out negative in the end, it was not because it did not even out. It is because you weren't any good.

**Sam Odom** · 11-21-16, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Sammy the hard part is figuring out where the mean actually is. It's down there somewhere...

just say we have a fair coin flip... but we put a vig on the sides

say after multiple-millions of flips we would see the 'regression toward the mean' of the actual heads v. tails many many times

However... our bankroll would be severely depleted at the end of the multiple-millions of flips

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

It all evens out. You will not recognize the ones that go your way because you will think you were right all along. You only remember the bad beats. You are going to have horrific runs and you will have great runs. When you have a great run, you will think it is because of your genius or your numbers.

If you come out negative in the end, it was not because it did not even out. It is because you weren't any good.

Absolutely false but I keep track of all my plays, when I get bad beats and good beats. The good beats I can count on one hand easily. The bad beats I def cannot.

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

You will? You promise? Start off and do Wednesday's lines then. I'm sure you'll just use KenPom or something but you have my attention now. Everyone does NOT have a PR now. I guarantee you that less than 10% of the people posting in this thread have a legitimate power ratings system. Of those 10%, I bet over 75% of those set it and forget it instead of keeping track over the season

Yes, no problem.

Didn't say on here. This is mostly 24yo's betting 10 bucks a play and 44yo's air betting.

Actually smoke a bowl and fukk off, I'll post my notes from yesterday.
#'s I use are written down.

Blue is better.
Yellow is about right.
Orange is bad.

Now like I said, fukk off. Every real bettor has one in 2016.

**Sam Odom** · 11-21-16, 04:21 PM

TP... you can add 'law of large numbers' to 'regression toward the mean'

**KickShootThrow** · 11-21-16, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

Yes, no problem.

Didn't say on here. This is mostly 24yo's betting 10 bucks a play and 44yo's air betting.

Actually smoke a bowl and fukk off, I'll post my notes from yesterday.
#'s I use are written down.

Blue is better.
Yellow is about right.
Orange is bad.

Now like I said, fukk off. Every real bettor has one in 2016.

What is this?

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:22 PM

LOL, college football? Well yeah, any moron can come up with numbers for 100 teams or however many there are

**Buffalo Nickle** · 11-21-16, 04:25 PM

You might have had some bad luck. It is completely ridiculous to say that it does not even out. Obviously, it does. Doubtful you count the good beats in the same way you do the bad ones. Too say it does not even out is pure ignorance.

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

LOL, college football? Well yeah, any moron can come up with numbers for 100 teams or however many there are

It's what your thread I read is about.

What kinda moron bets nfl?

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by KickShootThrow

What is this?

The answer key. Try it out for your next attempt.

I'm going to need you to paypal me first, though.

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

It's what your thread I read is about.

What kinda moron bets nfl?

Wong teaser clown

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by Buffalo Nickle

You might have had some bad luck. It is completely ridiculous to say that it does not even out. Obviously, it does. Doubtful you count the good beats in the same way you do the bad ones. Too say it does not even out is pure ignorance.

Why would I not grade them fairly? It's in my best interest to do so