Why is this line so high, to me, with the pitching match ups and teams,would have figured a pick'em at best. Anyone out there have an idea as to why??? Maeda -130 over Leake and Cards at Bush ????
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Leake sucks.Comment -
I posted my thoughts on LT's thread. I'm probably gonna get trainwrecked here, but I just don't get it. The Dodgers' pen has pitched 12.2 innings in the last two days (not counting Norris' innings last night). Maeda hasn't had a lot of success getting deep into games (averaging less than 6 IP and has 8 starts where he went 5 or less innings). And when he gets deep, he has struggled. Here are a couple of splits:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ 1st PA in G as SP 19 171 154 12 28 6 0 3 0 0 13 47 3.62 0.182 0.257 0.279 0.537 43 2 3 0 1 0 0 0.238 70 2nd PA in G as SP 19 171 158 12 31 3 0 5 0 0 12 48 4 0.196 0.257 0.31 0.567 49 3 1 0 0 2 1 0.248 79 3rd PA in G as SP 17 94 86 14 29 5 1 3 0 1 7 17 2.43 0.337 0.394 0.523 0.917 45 2 1 0 0 1 0 0.394 188 4th+ PA in G as SP 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 536 Split G IP ER ERA PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ 1st inning 19 19 6 2.84 76 67 7 13 4 0 1 1 0 6 19 3.17 0.194 0.276 0.299 0.575 20 1 2 0 1 0 0 0.25 82 2nd inning 19 19 3 1.42 74 66 3 10 1 0 1 2 0 7 16 2.29 0.152 0.243 0.212 0.455 14 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.184 46 3rd inning 19 19 8 3.79 75 71 8 16 3 0 3 0 0 4 22 5.5 0.225 0.267 0.394 0.661 28 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.283 107 4th inning 19 19 1 0.47 71 66 1 10 0 0 1 1 0 5 25 5 0.152 0.211 0.197 0.408 13 1 0 0 0 1 1 0.225 30 5th inning 18 16.1 12 6.61 71 62 13 17 2 1 3 3 1 8 13 1.63 0.274 0.366 0.484 0.85 30 2 1 0 0 1 0 0.304 167 6th inning 14 11.1 5 3.97 50 47 5 15 3 0 2 0 0 2 13 6.5 0.319 0.36 0.511 0.871 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.406 173 7th inning 7 4.1 4 8.31 20 20 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.4 0.4 0.45 0.85 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 169
On the other side, Leake has 21 Ks and 0 BBs in his last two starts, and the Dodger regulars haven't had much success against him historically (except Turner). Add in the fact that the Cards are 6-2 since the break, while the Dodgers are 3-5, and I'm backing the Cards at +$.
Best of luck!
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these games just guesses
pick out of hat
their is no theory hereComment -
Good post HeeluvaGuy!!!!!!!Comment -
Cards batting .239 last 7 games but they're 6-1
This line is telling me something. Maybe the Cards will put the "Sunday lineup" out a day early?Comment -
Yea, I know what you mean....but if this line stays around -125 to -130....Dodgers are the play!! No "free lunch" in Vegas,they know more then me....they are pricing this for a reason!........worth a small play.Comment -
Somehow the books thought that there was a high probability that Leake would have an " off night" !!
But no big deal,there will be many other opportunities.
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Like I said these games are so difficult to handicap you just try your bestComment -
Do you guys pay attention or just pick random games and fire on them? Anybody that follows the Cardinals this year knows it has been a disappointing year. No consistency and they've been flat out bad at Busch this season, aside from the last handful of games. They've been hovering in the 6-10 games under .500 mark at home all year up until the recent hot streak the past week or so. Leake is the Cards 5th starter. If Matheny needed to win 1 game he'd throw Wainwright, Martinez, Garcia or Wacha over Leake. Line made perfect sense. It opened around pk and the public moved it up into the -130 range. Cards should've lost last night, got a lucky extra innings win after a blown save by Jansen. Everybody was chasing plus banking on the Cards to revert back to losing at home, like they've done all season long.Comment -
The line is because of the poor home record for the Cards. Dodgers are one those over-valued teams like Boston and the Yankees also.
If you look at the Cards lineup, there are a lot of young non-nationally hyped players.Comment -
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