[jellobiafra]

I'm experimenting with a 2-team parlay progression chase. The base is a $5 bet to win $13. I took it a step further and started with ten $5 bets to win $130. I realize chasing is usually not a good thing, but this is more for experimentation and fun than actual profit/loss. The risk is very low (at least for now).

What I've done is charted it out on paper. I have across the top of the page, from left to right the parlay bet/win amount in columns 1-10. They are as listed (rounded for this post) as follows:

$5 ~ 13
$7 ~ 18
$10~ 25
$13~ 35
$18~ 48
$25~ 45
$35~ 91
$49~ 127
$68~ 176
$94~ 243

Each progression amounts to the bet it would require to recoup my original $5 plus the $13 I'm chasing. I am only playing ATS bets (point spread and O/U; -100 or -105), by the way.

Then from top to bottom are my opening bets, listed down rows 1-10. I started this yesterday and did no handicapping whatsoever on the original 10 come out bets. Probably dumb but I wanted to see how it would turn out just throwing a dart at these. I hit 2 out of 10, which is in line with .25 random odds. I actually pushed on one that was 2 O/U (what are THOSE odds I wonder) so I replaced that bet with abother $5 parlay that lost.

So the final record on the come out was 2-8-1. I cleared the 2 rows of the parlays that hit. Those bets are cashed. Now 8 more to chase. I decided that going forward I will only play games that I have handicapped. I might need a little better than 25% odds to clear this board.

I bet one 2nd tier parlay last night ($6.92 to win 17.99) and it actually hit. So that clears another row. 7 more bets to chase. My questions are as follows:

Has anyone here tried something like this before and if so what were the results? Is it going to end badly for me? I am putting a cap on my bets at the 10th progression ($93.53).

Also, should I bet these parlays working my way down the columns, one tier (price point) at a time? (This is my inclination as it keeps the risk as low as possible for as long as possible.) Or should I bet one row through to the end or until I clear it - leaving 6 bets waiting at tier 2 while I chase the next one for however long it takes me.

Any input would be welcome.

[xyz]

It doesn't matter in what order you place the parlay bets. Unless your parlay bets are +EV at all progression levels, you will lose money in the long run. But if your parlay bets are all +EV, then what you should really do is to use Kelly to size your bets instead of this progression system.

[Peep]

There was a gentleman by the name of Martingale who invented a roulette system similiar to what you describe.

He would be worth your while to read up on.

[jellobiafra]

I decided to abandon this endeavor. I won 3 out of 11 bets. The 7 I lost were all tier 1 bets so that's $35 in losses and $39 in wins.

I realized that eventually I would get crunched into placing larger wagers than I'd be comfortable with to chase down all these rows. At some point I would be playing entirely on the right side of the chart where I didn't want to be. I figured getting out when I did was the best chance I had at a profit.

[LT Profits]

I decided to abandon this endeavor. I won 3 out of 11 bets. The 7 I lost were all tier 1 bets so that's $35 in losses and $39 in wins.

I realized that eventually I would get crunched into placing larger wagers than I'd be comfortable with to chase down all these rows. At some point I would be playing entirely on the right side of the chart where I didn't want to be. I figured getting out when I did was the best chance I had at a profit.

Smart man!

All Martindale systems are doomed to fail eventually.

[reno cool]

Many of these things seem like a lot of fun, but if you actually try to do it you'll see that they're frustrating or at least boring.... since you're never giving yourself a chance for a big score while up. The opposite, parlay your winnings approach is actually a lot more fun.

[maniilaq]

Two Dog Parlay

Parlay 2 Dogs of between +100 - +135.
Chase parlay sets up to 12 times.
Chart is figured at both teams combine to average +114
Profit Average should be $161.00 per series win

1. Start April 10th Stop Sep 1

2. Underdogs must be between +100 - +135

3. Eliminate any underdog that has lost 3 or more games straight.

4. Eliminate any underdog that is facing a team that has won
3 or more games straight.

5. Home dogs and better PCT YTD become first picks where more than two
teams are open to play in the same day.

BetProfit
40 140
55 154
70 150
95 175
125 182
165 200
200 155
255 157
330 170
420 160
540 170
680 125

[scratbandit]

and another system bites the dust..