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LOL, Covers.com are trying to sucker people in to take the Panthers by writing an article saying the Panthers are undervalue? The line right now is at -6 and public money hasn't dissipated yet. Right now, it's in the low 80's when you combine both Moneyline and Point Spread action on the Panthers. The public is absolutely convinced that if the 2013 MVP version of Manning can get blown out in the Superbowl then this old washed one up definitely will.
Manning just need to do what he's been doing all playoffs and they will win because this great defense is going to give them a fighting chance. There's nothing to me that indicate the Panthers is going to fare any better. The defense has just stopped the two best aerial attack in the NFL. I actually think they match up better against the run because they have a bulky front line and quick linebackers that can spy on Cam Newton. There's no way they lose by more then 3 points when their all their games has been close all year. The Broncos did had one blowout lost to the Chiefs when they lost 13-29 in a game the offense threw 5 picks. If they don't turn it over they will cover and possibly win.Comment -
Denver bout to take them out behind the woodshed gonna be one of them oh I didn't see that coming games I can see it coming a mile awayComment -
Some decent analysis for both sides here but I think most Denver backers are forgetting that Belichick/McDaniels beat themselves worse than the Broncos D did. Kick a couple FG's instead of going for it on 4th down twice and we're looking at a Brady v Cam Superbowl
To me a lot of this comes down to coaching and I'll put my money on Riverboat Ron over Gary Fkn Kubiak any day!Comment -
I think I'll take the under.Comment -
The line is -6 in Vegas now, and it will NOT go any higher. A lot of interesting talk and theory in here but that is all that it is. Talk and theory. How many times has Carolina been there? How many times has Denver been there? For those of you who think the weather will play a part, forget it. Sunny and temps in the mid 60's at game time. A grass field gives a slight edge to Carolina in that department. Denver ruined Carolina's strategy by choosing to wear white, the same color that Carolina, thinking that they were the visiting team if they got to the Superbowl, chose to wear in the playoffs. Had New England made it, the strategy would have worked. Denver draws first blood in the mind game department. Carolina wears black. Good guys vs bad guys. Interesting.Comment -
It will interesting to see what the closing line on this game will be. In super bowl betting history, lines that ended -7.5 or higher, the favorites usually covered, rare exception was in 2008 with the Patriots being -12 and losing to the Giants, and in 1998 with Green Bay being -11 against Denver and Denver winning straight up. Check it out here..
I'm guessing this line will close at 4.5 or 5, with Denver ML about +180. That's my best guess. If it closes at 7.5, which it won't, I would be scared to take Denver at that point. Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 8 years. (New England considered a Pick 'em last year.)Comment -
That line will not go to 7.5. BigDaddy could be right about 6, it will take some money to get to 6.5. There are groups still up for buying Carolina at that price.
Those groups have been patient and helped contribute to the rise to 6 taking so long.
Win or lose, there area rules that govern buys and sells and computers identifying the triggers.
This may be the SuperBowl, but to us professionals, it's really just another game. The low line early this week lends credence to those who think Denver wins the game.
Vegas incited the action and the sharps bought into the early Denver backers. This is similar to stocks, particualrly in the first hour of the morning.
We used to call it amateur hour.
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I love when guys refer to themselves as sharps. If they were so sharp they would have their own book and sit back and make money regardless.
KVB is a smart guy.
Big Daddy is a fuking moron. Using uniform color as an example for why Denver has the edge?
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Game is fixed. NFL can't have Newton after all his race baiting being face of league.Comment -
I can't argue with anything you said there...lol. Truthfully, I'm a player at heart and booking comes with too many headaches.
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My niggas!!!! Just got word from my bookie, so far 51k is on CAR and 7k is on DEN. He only moved the line half a point since he opened.
Y'all know what to doComment -
This is starting to get interesting now. Carolina public action has now dropped nearly 10 percent while still hovering around 70 percent. Denver right now has a slight edge on moneyline action like maybe 1-2 percent.
If it's 60-40 by kickoff then I would be confident if I'm a Panther bettor since Vegas is probably going to let it ride to offset the losing they would take from a Denver moneyline win. If people are still hammering the Over then the equation changes a little bit since Vegas rarely loses both public plays on their most betted game.
A recent example was the Alabama Clemson game. The public took both Bama and the Over overwhelming. And guess what happened, only one public play covered.
The Public action in this Superbowl is nowhere as bad as Superbowl 48 when the entire world took Denver. Another bad thing for Denver in Superbowl 48 was, it was the year of the horse and you had millions of Chinese money on the Broncos added to have Vegas really rig it.Comment -
This game will be decided with Von Miller and Ware plain and simple. Carolina uses 5 o linemen sometimes even 6 and gives cam all day to throw. if Miller and Ware get to cam Denver will win for sure. Carolina corners can't cover thomas and sanders...Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Im loving denver more and moreComment -
Well, I don't give a fuk what anyone says or all of the bullshit conspiracy theories that are being spewed on this thread and others, but my money is on Carolina (-5.5)...and I'm going almost all in...I've learned over the years when handicapping Superbowls, I always ask myself which team was more impressive in their respective playoff runs and who did they beat?...this formula is not complicated and has proven to be successful...carolina destroyed two legit teams in Seattle and Arizona....Denver's D is legit and finished #1 in the regular season with 283.1 yds allowed per game and Seattle was #2 right behind them at 291.8 and Arizona was #5 at 321.7...so in essence, there really isn't that much separation between those three defenses...Carolina has too many weapons on offense for Denver to slow down...Cam's running ability and the read option will negate Von Miller's and the rest of Denver's pass rush or at the very least hold it in check...I have no doubt that Carolina's defense will force at least 3 turnovers from Peyton Manning...game, set, match...Carolina wins 34 - 14 and I'm putting at least a nickel ($500) on the game....
Net Total Yards Leaders
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G 1 Denver 4530 283.1 3193 199.6 1337 83.6 296 18.5 2 Seattle 4668 291.8 3364 210.3 1304 81.5 277 17.3 3 Houston 4963 310.2 3366 210.4 1597 99.8 313 19.6 4 NY Jets 5098 318.6 3763 235.2 1335 83.4 314 19.6 5 Arizona 5147 321.7 3687 230.4 1460 91.3 313 19.6 6 Carolina 5167 322.9 3752 234.5 1415 88.4 308 19.3 7 Kansas City 5269 329.3 3698 231.1 1571 98.2 287 17.9 8 Baltimore 5398 337.4 3737 233.6 1661 103.8 401 25.1 9 New England 5431 339.4 3851 240.7 1580 98.8 315 19.7 10 Tampa Bay 5446 340.4 3840 240.0 1606 100.4 417 26.1 11 Cincinnati 5453 340.8 3976 248.5 1477 92.3 279 17.4 12 Tennessee 5475 342.2 3678 229.9 1797 112.3 423 26.4 13 Minnesota 5507 344.2 3759 234.9 1748 109.3 302 18.9 14 Chicago 5527 345.4 3593 224.6 1934 120.9 397 24.8 15 Green Bay 5547 346.7 3642 227.6 1905 119.1 323 20.2 16 Atlanta 5562 347.6 3882 242.6 1680 105.0 345 21.6 17 Dallas 5570 348.1 3636 227.3 1934 120.9 374 23.4 18 Detroit 5594 349.6 3789 236.8 1805 112.8 400 25.0 19 Buffalo 5702 356.4 3972 248.3 1730 108.1 359 22.4 20 San Diego 5791 361.9 3786 236.6 2005 125.3 398 24.9 21 Pittsburgh 5809 363.1 4350 271.9 1459 91.2 319 19.9 22 Oakland 5818 363.6 4140 258.8 1678 104.9 399 24.9 23 St. Louis 5885 367.8 4065 254.1 1820 113.8 330 20.6 24 Jacksonville 6000 375.0 4291 268.2 1709 106.8 448 28.0 25 Miami 6019 376.2 4000 250.0 2019 126.2 389 24.3 26 Indianapolis 6066 379.1 4114 257.1 1952 122.0 408 25.5 27 Cleveland 6067 379.2 4012 250.8 2055 128.4 432 27.0 28 Washington 6090 380.6 4128 258.0 1962 122.6 379 23.7 29 San Francisco 6199 387.4 4179 261.2 2020 126.3 387 24.2 30 Philadelphia 6426 401.6 4273 267.1 2153 134.6 430 26.9 31 New Orleans 6620 413.8 4544 284.0 2076 129.8 476 29.8 32 NY Giants 6725 420.3 4783 298.9 1942 121.4 442 27.6 Comment -
All those NFL experts are no where to be seen now. I called this game like a book in this thread.Comment
