It appears this doesn't happen often in the NFL, week one?

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  • JMon
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-11-09
    • 9800

    #1
    It appears this doesn't happen often in the NFL, week one?
    A non-divisional home dog? I'm counting 71 situations since 1989?

    This is a spot to look at
  • JMon
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-11-09
    • 9800

    #2
    Anyone think a premature high total in week one?
    Comment
    • JMon
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-11-09
      • 9800

      #3
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      • slacker00
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-06-05
        • 12262

        #4
        I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

        Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.
        Comment
        • seaborneq
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 09-08-06
          • 22556

          #5
          Need more information. What do the numbers say? Is it Oakland this week? What do the 71 other instances say?
          Comment
          • JMon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-11-09
            • 9800

            #6
            Originally posted by slacker00
            I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

            Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.

            not rare? 71 games since 1989?
            Comment
            • JMon
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-11-09
              • 9800

              #7
              Originally posted by slacker00
              I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

              Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.
              did you check the totals?
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #8
                Originally posted by seaborneq
                Need more information. What do the numbers say? Is it Oakland this week? What do the 71 other instances say?
                still running them...
                Comment
                • JMon
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 9800

                  #9
                  Comment
                  • slacker00
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-06-05
                    • 12262

                    #10
                    Originally posted by JMon
                    not rare? 71 games since 1989?
                    That's about 20% of the games within that criteria. Nothing rare about something that happens 20% of the time.

                    Let me ask again, what are you even getting at? I can't even understand what your angle is.
                    Comment
                    • JMon
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-11-09
                      • 9800

                      #11
                      Originally posted by slacker00
                      That's about 20% of the games within that criteria. Nothing rare about something that happens 20% of the time.

                      Let me ask again, what are you even getting at? I can't even understand what your angle is.
                      Let me ask you again...have you looked at the totals- O/U....my god!
                      Comment
                      • JMon
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-11-09
                        • 9800

                        #12
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                        • JMon
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 12-11-09
                          • 9800

                          #13


                          45-24-2 under since '89
                          Comment
                          • JMon
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-11-09
                            • 9800

                            #14
                            Comment
                            • JMon
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-11-09
                              • 9800

                              #15
                              Comment
                              • JMon
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-11-09
                                • 9800

                                #16
                                total>=45
                                Comment
                                • youngfl0yd
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-02-15
                                  • 340

                                  #17
                                  I don't even understand what is going on in here...
                                  Comment
                                  • kidcudi92
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-14-11
                                    • 15434

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by youngfl0yd
                                    I don't even understand what is going on in here...
                                    x2 like what in theeeeee fukkkkk
                                    Comment
                                    • NardVa
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-02-07
                                      • 8325

                                      #19
                                      At least one dog will cash at home. I'm guessing Buffalo. They have a legit defense and some playmakers on offense.
                                      Comment
                                      • DOM_Toretto
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-28-13
                                        • 9035

                                        #20
                                        Wtf is jmon trying to tell us?

                                        Speak English not riddles
                                        Comment
                                        • newguy
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 12-27-09
                                          • 6100

                                          #21
                                          He's saying bet the over
                                          Comment
                                          • dfish
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-17-10
                                            • 2730

                                            #22
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                                            • JMon
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-11-09
                                              • 9800

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JMon
                                              A non-divisional home dog? I'm counting 71 situations since 1989?

                                              This is a spot to look at
                                              Originally posted by JMon


                                              45-24-2 under since '89
                                              Originally posted by JMon
                                              total>=45

                                              Just messing around with numbers last night. This seems meaningless, but interesting. I can't think of any good logic why it happens. probably not worth a bet.

                                              Since 1989, in week one - home dogs in a non divisional game have seen the total go under the posted line 65% of the time. 45 unders - 24 overs and 2 push. Totals of 45 and over in this same spot are 14 under and 0 over since '89... thus Bills under and Falcons under.
                                              Comment
                                              • JMon
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-11-09
                                                • 9800

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by dfish
                                                [ATTACH]84655[/ATTACH]
                                                boom
                                                Comment
                                                • slacker00
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-06-05
                                                  • 12262

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by JMon


                                                  45-24-2 under since '89
                                                  Why didn't you say this in post #1?

                                                  So, to apply this: SF,OAK,WAS,JAX,BUF,ATL are the non-division week 1 home dogs and you want the under.
                                                  WagerType:PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
                                                  Date: Team:
                                                  Sep 13 NFL [470] TOTAL u45-110 (INDIANAPOLIS vrs BUFFALO)
                                                  Sep 13 NFL [472] TOTAL u43-110 (MIAMI vrs WASHINGTON)
                                                  Sep 13 NFL [474] TOTAL u41-110 (CAROLINA vrs JACKSONVILLE)
                                                  Sep 13 NFL [484] TOTAL u43½-110 (CINCINNATI vrs OAKLAND)
                                                  Sep 14 NFL [490] TOTAL u55½-110 (PHILADELPHIA vrs ATLANTA)
                                                  Sep 14 NFL [492] TOTAL u41½-110 (MINNESOTA vrs SAN FRANCISCO)
                                                  Risking 5 SBR To Win 200.00 SBR
                                                  (I made this parlay for tracking purposes.)
                                                  Interesting idea, we'll see how you do. GL!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #26
                                                    slacker...Jmon was hitting the sauce rather heavy last night.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • slacker00
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-06-05
                                                      • 12262

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JMon
                                                      slacker...Jmon was hitting the sauce rather heavy last night.
                                                      Well, grab some coffee and look it over and tell me what you think after you sober up.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Terps1993
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 07-28-14
                                                        • 168

                                                        #28
                                                        Gotta love basing numbers from 1990s non divisional home dogs over/unders to decide that this falcons eagles shootout is gonna hit the under.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jayvegas420
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 03-09-11
                                                          • 28213

                                                          #29
                                                          I have three of those 5 games over.
                                                          This will be Intersting!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • slacker00
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-06-05
                                                            • 12262

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Terps1993
                                                            Gotta love basing numbers from 1990s non divisional home dogs over/unders to decide that this falcons eagles shootout is gonna hit the under.
                                                            I know its out there. At least he has some stats, unlike most guys on here. We've got 6 solid games to test it.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JMon
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                              • 9800

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by slacker00
                                                              Well, grab some coffee and look it over and tell me what you think after you sober up.
                                                              ya,, only going to be watching for sure. Funny I stumbled on the total trend here, as I was looking to see how non div home dogs did ATS in week one, so just wanted to share. I can't think of any sound logic why they tend to go under.. and after closer review 6 spots today is the most this situation has spit out since '89; so it's going to have to go 4-2 at least. Also btwn 1989-98 it went 13-12 under/over. '99 to current 33-11-2 (under/over), with ave total of 42 and ave final score of 36. I wouldn't play, not trustworthy. I may put a little on the >=45 totals (14-0 under) for action.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • teaserpleaser
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 08-14-08
                                                                • 26015

                                                                #32
                                                                if it wasn't week 1 i'd smash that over in the lions v chargers game ....if it wasn't week 1
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Maddhatter
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-12-09
                                                                  • 4350

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by slacker00
                                                                  Why didn't you say this in post #1?

                                                                  So, to apply this: SF,OAK,WAS,JAX,BUF,ATL are the non-division week 1 home dogs and you want the under.
                                                                  WagerType:PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
                                                                  Date: Team:
                                                                  Sep 13 NFL [470] TOTAL u45-110 (INDIANAPOLIS vrs BUFFALO)
                                                                  Sep 13 NFL [472] TOTAL u43-110 (MIAMI vrs WASHINGTON)
                                                                  Sep 13 NFL [474] TOTAL u41-110 (CAROLINA vrs JACKSONVILLE)
                                                                  Sep 13 NFL [484] TOTAL u43½-110 (CINCINNATI vrs OAKLAND)
                                                                  Sep 14 NFL [490] TOTAL u55½-110 (PHILADELPHIA vrs ATLANTA)
                                                                  Sep 14 NFL [492] TOTAL u41½-110 (MINNESOTA vrs SAN FRANCISCO)
                                                                  Risking 5 SBR To Win 200.00 SBR
                                                                  (I made this parlay for tracking purposes.)
                                                                  Interesting idea, we'll see how you do. GL!

                                                                  Looks like 5-1. Something to consider next year (if you can wait that long). Nice catch even if you just bet the 2 games on Mon night. Good find JMon.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Tarboroken
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 09-25-13
                                                                    • 144

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Good job

                                                                    Originally posted by JMon
                                                                    ya,, only going to be watching for sure. Funny I stumbled on the total trend here, as I was looking to see how non div home dogs did ATS in week one, so just wanted to share. I can't think of any sound logic why they tend to go under.. and after closer review 6 spots today is the most this situation has spit out since '89; so it's going to have to go 4-2 at least. Also btwn 1989-98 it went 13-12 under/over. '99 to current 33-11-2 (under/over), with ave total of 42 and ave final score of 36. I wouldn't play, not trustworthy. I may put a little on the >=45 totals (14-0 under) for action.

                                                                    You ou were right. Many thought you would be wrong.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • slacker00
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 10-06-05
                                                                      • 12262

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Maddhatter
                                                                      Looks like 5-1. Something to consider next year (if you can wait that long). Nice catch even if you just bet the 2 games on Mon night. Good find JMon.
                                                                      Well, we don't have to wait. We can use what we learned here to find another lopsided trend like this.
                                                                      Comment
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