Ok lets really do a football betting team this year:
We are starting this early enough to get it done this year:
This is it men. I've studied long and hard about this. It all comes down to this idea. Guys need to quit trying to fukkin win a pizza or grocery bills for a month. Fukk it, even a car payment.
Here is my plan:
1. Game selector (no points, you start the list of games)- The job is to find 3-5 games that really make no sense in regards to the line when released. You will release this after 5 minutes of looking at the lines. It will cover NCAAF and NFL.
2. Line watcher (5 points)- You can argue all you want about how line movement may or may not affect the spread. I think RLM does help, but I never said it was enough to blindly tail and be a winner. If you can raise your chances off the bat from 50% to 51% or 52% at minimum, why not? So this person will check RLM after the games are announced by game selector. He will keep us somewhat informed during the week but most importantly let us know on game day after limits are raised.
3. Injury/suspension report (6 points) - The best person for this job is someone with a line service like Sportsoptions. All you have to do is copy/paste any injuries/suspensions for the game. We can then compare notes of injuries/suspensions with the line watcher to see what adjusted where.
4. Square writeup (3 points)- For example, Team A is 10-2 and has the #1 pass offense. They are playing a team that is 5-7 and horrible at pass defense. Just give obvious writeup after reviewing ESPN, CBS, NFL, NCAAF articles as to why we should NOT take the team we are thinking about taking. Tell us what the public knows.
5. Sharp writeup (up to 5 bonus points) - I doubt we find anyone specific for this. Hopefully EVERYONE can chime in with comments. Injuries will not be included in the sharp writeup since we get those above. What does count, is past injuries. Ex. the nose guard has been out and everyone has adjusted positions since they don't have a backup. Now that he is back and everyone in their spot, their run defense should be back even though the numbers aren't showing it. Also, TMZ reports are crucial here. We need to know if the wide receiver was caught fukkin the qbs wife. What we don't need is stats from any website. We need interpreted data here.
6. Sharp and square picks (2 points each for sharp, -2 for each square) - All sharp and square picks will be found on this and other forums. Personal vendettas with someone, please do not include. Plus/minus points will be used accordingly
7. Late line movement (5 points)- Within 15 minutes of the game, I will keep refreshing lines. A move against by half a point or more is worth -5 points. Staying the same is worth 1 and moving with the pick is worth 5. So if we have bears +6 and it gets bounded down to +4, that pick will be worth 5 points.
8. My pick (5 points) - Ofcourse my fukkin pick matters to me, I am risking my money.
9. FULL EFFECT (-100 points) - FULL stands for Fukked Up Landers & Lang. Both are on our side of the game it will automatically be a non play.
So that leaves a possible 34 points. Since the sharp write up will hardly ever get used, the total is out of 30. 24 points are needed to place a bet on a game. Max of 2 games per week and a max of 7 picks in a year per try. All in every time. I am going to take $200 for a max of 3 tries ($600 loss max). You fukks might as well try it with $5 or $10. $10 is still a possible $924 for an at most loss of $30.
This is it men. I've studied long and hard about this. It all comes down to this idea. Guys need to quit trying to fukkin win a pizza or grocery bills for a month. Fukk it, even a car payment.
Here is my plan:
1. Game selector (no points, you start the list of games)- The job is to find 3-5 games that really make no sense in regards to the line when released. You will release this after 5 minutes of looking at the lines. It will cover NCAAF and NFL.
2. Line watcher (5 points)- You can argue all you want about how line movement may or may not affect the spread. I think RLM does help, but I never said it was enough to blindly tail and be a winner. If you can raise your chances off the bat from 50% to 51% or 52% at minimum, why not? So this person will check RLM after the games are announced by game selector. He will keep us somewhat informed during the week but most importantly let us know on game day after limits are raised.
3. Injury/suspension report (6 points) - The best person for this job is someone with a line service like Sportsoptions. All you have to do is copy/paste any injuries/suspensions for the game. We can then compare notes of injuries/suspensions with the line watcher to see what adjusted where.
4. Square writeup (3 points)- For example, Team A is 10-2 and has the #1 pass offense. They are playing a team that is 5-7 and horrible at pass defense. Just give obvious writeup after reviewing ESPN, CBS, NFL, NCAAF articles as to why we should NOT take the team we are thinking about taking. Tell us what the public knows.
5. Sharp writeup (up to 5 bonus points) - I doubt we find anyone specific for this. Hopefully EVERYONE can chime in with comments. Injuries will not be included in the sharp writeup since we get those above. What does count, is past injuries. Ex. the nose guard has been out and everyone has adjusted positions since they don't have a backup. Now that he is back and everyone in their spot, their run defense should be back even though the numbers aren't showing it. Also, TMZ reports are crucial here. We need to know if the wide receiver was caught fukkin the qbs wife. What we don't need is stats from any website. We need interpreted data here.
6. Sharp and square picks (2 points each for sharp, -2 for each square) - All sharp and square picks will be found on this and other forums. Personal vendettas with someone, please do not include. Plus/minus points will be used accordingly
7. Late line movement (5 points)- Within 15 minutes of the game, I will keep refreshing lines. A move against by half a point or more is worth -5 points. Staying the same is worth 1 and moving with the pick is worth 5. So if we have bears +6 and it gets bounded down to +4, that pick will be worth 5 points.
8. My pick (5 points) - Ofcourse my fukkin pick matters to me, I am risking my money.
9. FULL EFFECT (-100 points) - FULL stands for Fukked Up Landers & Lang. Both are on our side of the game it will automatically be a non play.
So that leaves a possible 34 points. Since the sharp write up will hardly ever get used, the total is out of 30. 24 points are needed to place a bet on a game. Max of 2 games per week and a max of 7 picks in a year per try. All in every time. I am going to take $200 for a max of 3 tries ($600 loss max). You fukks might as well try it with $5 or $10. $10 is still a possible $924 for an at most loss of $30.
