Science Says American Pharoah Won’t Win the Triple Crown

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65646

    #1
    Science Says American Pharoah Won’t Win the Triple Crown
    CALIFORNIA CHROME HAD it all. The three-year-old thoroughbred won the Kentucky Derby last year. Two weeks later, he topped the field at the Preakness, becoming the only horse bred in the Golden State to ever win both races. Then, on June 7, 2014, he was about to run the Belmont Stakes, the final race in the so-called Triple Crown. The last horse to win all three of these races was Affirmed in 1978, but maybe Chrome had a chance to bring the title into the 21st century: The colt had a prime starting position, second in the gate. The odds were on his side, at 3-5. His legion of fans, the #Chromies, mustered on Twitter.

    But Chrome fell short. Tying for fourth, he became the 13th horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown only to fail in the third in almost 40 years. The winner at Belmont, Tonalist, hadn’t raced in the Derby or the Preakness, and in a post-race interview, Chrome’s co-owner Steve Coburn argued that the Triple Crown should be a closed circuit: No parachuting in to run the Belmont if you haven’t already run the previous races in the series. “It’s not fair to the horses that have been in the game since day one,” Coburn said. “It’s all or nothing. This is the coward’s way out.”

    Coburn has a point. Post-race recovery is no joke for a thousand-pound animal that can run more than 40 miles per hour. There are two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness, and three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont. That tight schedule—and the super-specific needs of racehorses—means horses competing in the grueling back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown races have a big disadvantage against fresh horses.





    If a horse eats well and stays hydrated, their glycogen and electrolyte levels should return to normal between each leg of the Triple Crown, but they might be able to recover faster and be in better form for training between races with improved electrolyte supplements. Unfortunately for American Pharoah and the other contenders, Pagan’s study just came out, so this development likely won’t impact the horses competing in the Belmont this year.

    Healthy Muscles

    In addition to being the last race of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes is also the longest. Some Derby contenders have never raced a mile and a quarter before, never mind the mile and a half they need to run for the Belmont Stakes. Most thoroughbreds also typically get three weeks to a month between tough races, while the Triple Crown allows for just a few weeks between each race.
    <figure id="attachment_1790796" class="wp-caption landscape alignnone fader fade-in-up" data-js="fader" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 64px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; -webkit-transition: all 0.35s cubic-bezier(0.33, 0.66, 0.66, 1); transition: all 0.35s cubic-bezier(0.33, 0.66, 0.66, 1); opacity: 1; -webkit-transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); transform: translate3d(0px, 0px, 0px); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Exchange SSm 4r', Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 28px;">Click to Open Overlay Gallery<figcaption class="wp-caption-text link-underline" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proxima-nova, HelveticaNeue-Bold, 'Helvetica Neue Bold', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin: 16px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;"> WIRED</figcaption></figure>That’s no easy feat, even for a racehorse. When a horse runs a tough race (or has a new workout at a longer distance), its muscles break down. Then, during rest, they reknit and adapt. Your muscles do the same thing. “It’s a part of exercising at the top of their game,” Thunes says. “You have to give them time before ramping them up again over a new distance.” The trio of strenuous races combined with minimal downtime pushes horses to their limits. For many horses, the time between the Derby and Preakness might not be enough time to heal completely, leaving them with even more muscular damage to deal with before the Belmont.

    But trainers who skip one or two of the earlier Triple Crown races can set their horses’ rest and workout schedule so they peak at a muscular (and mental) level for the Belmont. American Pharoah, for example, had to take it easy the week after the Preakness. His Belmont prep was a slow build-up from there, concluding with a fast mile and a half gallop on May 30 and a final workout at an easier pace and shorter distance on June 1. A horse that has skipped the Preakness, however, has the luxury of time. Mubtaahij, for example, who finished eighth in the Derby, had plenty of rest so he could be pushed for hard workouts two weeks prior to the Belmont. Now, his trainer hopes to keep his colt fresh by taking the week leading up to the race easy. Pharoah’s trainer is a pro, but having the time to relax and physically rebuild during this final week could make all the difference on race day.

    Dem bones

    At different points in its stride, a galloping horse puts all its weight on a single leg. That limb bears three times more weight than usual when galloping on a straightaway and, thanks to centrifugal force, a load five to 10 times greater on turns. This translates to skeletal microdamage.
    That damage can manifest as anything from bone strain to microscopic cracks. “The skeleton is dynamic and the body is continually revitalizing the skeleton by removing damage and replacing it with healthy bone tissue,” says Sue Stover, a professor at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine.

    Luckily, the 3-year-olds that run the Triple Crown are young, healthy athletes with bodies that adapt faster than those of older horses, and “remodeling” ultimately makes bones stronger. But another side effect of Lasix, it turns out, is slower healing—they lose bone-building calcium, remember, through all that diuretic-induced pee. Even mild microdamage can manifest as discomfort or soreness, taking the edge off during competition. Bones also become weaker between the time when the body removes the damaged material and when it finishes rebuilding that area. Race a horse during that critical period and you increase the risk of serious injuries mid-race. A fresh horse won’t face any of those problems. Even a horse that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness will have five weeks to rest, and plenty of time for normal skeletal damage to repair, before the Belmont.

    So, American Pharoah, it’d be awesome if you win the Triple Crown, but you probably won’t. It’s not your fault. It’s science and those pesky fresh horses. Frosted, for example, who came in fourth in the Derby and sat out the Preakness (and who happens to be a half-brother to last year’s Triple Crown buster, Tonalist, and is being ridden by the same jockey, too)is most likely to spoil the party. But that shouldn’t stop someone, hypothetically, from placing a hopeful bet.
  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #2
    Well one of these times science is not going to work maybe this is it
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      Materiality since track is dry
      Comment
      • DrunkHorseplayer
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 05-15-10
        • 7719

        #4
        Coburn has no point. Beating new shooters is one reason it's so hard and so prestigious; without that factor, about thirty horses would have done it and it would be noteworthy but no big deal.
        Comment
        • Dirty Sanchez
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-01-10
          • 16031

          #5
          Nothing against Art Sherman...he's a good trainer....but Bob Baffert is at another level...and if AP doesn't get it done today it's going to be one of those horse racing deals because when it comes to 1 1/2 miles you really don't know how the horses are going to react because most horses don't run that distance...you go to the blood lines and breeding. Personally I might guess the Espinosa is going to put AP on the lead and make someone beat him...I wouldn't think he's going to try and chase someone in that sandy crap and distance
          Comment
          • CWD
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-22-12
            • 7665

            #6
            APs preakness was merely a paid workout
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by CWD
              APs preakness was merely a paid workout
              Still, 1 1/2 miles is a different animal.
              Comment
              • BennyBigNuts
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-16-12
                • 8700

                #8
                Science says Nash is a closet-homo, and his wife is a 500 lb slob
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65646

                  #9
                  Originally posted by BennyBigNuts
                  Science says Nash is a closet-homo, and his wife is a 500 lb slob
                  Dime to my dollar little boy.
                  Now get your shine box idiot.
                  Comment
                  • smitch124
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 05-19-08
                    • 12566

                    #10
                    I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65646

                      #11
                      Originally posted by smitch124
                      I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
                      ^
                      Horse ran a perfect race.
                      Epic
                      Comment
                      • ZetaPsi808
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 09-18-08
                        • 12119

                        #12
                        Originally posted by BennyBigNuts
                        Science says Nash is a closet-homo, and his wife is a 500 lb slob
                        havent seen u post any plays in a while, we need more losers.. get back to posting
                        Comment
                        • stevenash
                          Moderator
                          • 01-17-11
                          • 65646

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ZetaPsi808
                          havent seen u post any plays in a while, we need more losers.. get back to posting
                          Gold has him pegged, he's nothing but a trolling insecure fraud.
                          The dude has been busted for post-padding and a gazzillion other scams.

                          Funny thing is I posted this discussion thread because it was an interesting piece of equine hematology.

                          Benny's day isn't complete unless he trolls one of my posts. Makes his 2" rooster feel like a footlong.

                          The only question that remains is does he spit or swallow Bear's and CWD's jizz.
                          My money is on spit.
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            Bennybignuts is the biggest scammer and fraud on the site I'm going to see if we can get him banned he's nothing but a troller and bad for the site
                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65646

                              #15
                              Originally posted by jjgold
                              Bennybignuts is the biggest scammer and fraud on the site I'm going to see if we can get him banned he's nothing but a troller and bad for the site
                              Biggest scammer, maybe, top three for sure.
                              Do what you got to do Gold.
                              Comment
                              • str
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-12-09
                                • 11787

                                #16
                                Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.

                                24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.

                                Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.

                                Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.

                                Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  I guess we were due for a Triple Crown winner I think it was good for the sport and the horse seem to win really easy surprisingly
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65646

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by str
                                    Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.

                                    24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.

                                    Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.

                                    Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.

                                    Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
                                    Here's the thing though.
                                    Made a tiny profit with exotics, I never said fade the horse, I didn't fade the horse.
                                    Comment
                                    • Vegas39
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 09-22-11
                                      • 30686

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ZetaPsi808
                                      havent seen u post any plays in a while, we need more losers.. get back to posting
                                      trying and failing to be a tout on twitter
                                      Comment
                                      • Harry N. Lloyd
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-26-08
                                        • 4810

                                        #20
                                        Chrome was a great horse. Coburn was a horse's ass. Pharoah proved that blowhard wrong.
                                        Comment
                                        • stevenash
                                          Moderator
                                          • 01-17-11
                                          • 65646

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Vegas39
                                          trying and failing to be a tout on twitter
                                          A twitter tout. God there aren't too many of those around, huh?

                                          Twiiter tout.
                                          I challenge him to a head to head capping contest, next thing you heard was crickets.
                                          Comment
                                          • Vegas39
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 09-22-11
                                            • 30686

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                            A twitter tout. God there aren't too many of those around, huh?

                                            Twiiter tout.
                                            I challenge him to a head to head capping contest, next thing you heard was crickets.
                                            he is like bear all talk no balls
                                            Comment
                                            • GunShard
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-05-10
                                              • 10031

                                              #23
                                              Rare occurrences happen and sports bettors can capitalize on it.
                                              Comment
                                              • sandyw123
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 07-28-11
                                                • 307

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by str
                                                Pace makes the race Nash. Always has, always will.

                                                24+ 48+ 113+, race was over half way down the backside.

                                                Ears were up 50 yards out of the gate and still up at the 1/4 pole.

                                                Really nice horse, don't get me wrong. Just did something that very few have done, but many that failed could only look back and have dreamed of fractions, the fence, no pressure, and a clean right eye like that.

                                                Gotta reserve any more comments until I think about it some more.
                                                He's a very good horse, clearly the best of the year. Was this a weaker field or is he that good? It does take a special horse to come out of the first 2 legs like he did. I'm thinking he just might be that good, but don't think he had to run against an exceptional field of horses. Yet he ran a mile and a half like it was nothing.
                                                Comment
                                                • cbiscuit
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 03-14-07
                                                  • 633

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by smitch124
                                                  I think this just might be a poor field of 3 year olds, he had the lead through 6Fs at 1:13 and 2. That's a leisurely pace to say the least. All of his times were less than stellar. I think your science is sound here, it's just not enough real competition in this year's crop of 3 years olds. It was bound to happen eventually.
                                                  All along this year, everyone was saying that this was the best crop of 3yo's that weve had in a while. I tend to believe that still but time will tell. Little doubt in my mind that AP was better than Big Brown, Smarty, Chrome, I'llHaveAnother, in recent years. Bottom line he did it and is already an all=time great being that pulling off the TC is much tougher in modern times as compared to TC winners of the past.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • smitch124
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-19-08
                                                    • 12566

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by cbiscuit
                                                    All along this year, everyone was saying that this was the best crop of 3yo's that weve had in a while. I tend to believe that still but time will tell. Little doubt in my mind that AP was better than Big Brown, Smarty, Chrome, I'llHaveAnother, in recent years. Bottom line he did it and is already an all=time great being that pulling off the TC is much tougher in modern times as compared to TC winners of the past.
                                                    Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BrickJames
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-05-11
                                                      • 9749

                                                      #27
                                                      I want to hear what that poor sport Cali chromes owner has to say now. he will go down in history as "the guy who whined when he lost"
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cbiscuit
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 03-14-07
                                                        • 633

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by smitch124
                                                        Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
                                                        The splits were honest enough for the Belmont...if Materialtiy went after him any harder, he would have faded to last all the more sooner. Frosted was the way to guage that. Any other year heprobably runs a winning race but he could not reel in AP who was good enough. Finishing time quite respectable btw.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sandyw123
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 07-28-11
                                                          • 307

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by smitch124
                                                          Maybe its just as simple as this class lacked speed, to let him get those splits is a gift for a front running horse.
                                                          I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cbiscuit
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 03-14-07
                                                            • 633

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by jjgold
                                                            I guess we were due for a Triple Crown winner I think it was good for the sport and the horse seem to win really easy surprisingly
                                                            He won by 5 but think he was totally spent - he ran his ass off once he could feel the wire coming. At best we see him in time for the Travers, no Haskell for this guy. Now that I think of it I would not blame Baffert if he just trains AP up to the BC CLassic.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cbiscuit
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 03-14-07
                                                              • 633

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by sandyw123
                                                              I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
                                                              I'm surprised to see that time as second best.

                                                              I just looked a tchart now at DRF.com ... 2:26:65 I would be surprised if that is second fastest. If it is, no discussion necessary as to AP legitimacy. Hell, he won TC, fk the final time
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Memento
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-28-15
                                                                • 1192

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by sandyw123
                                                                I just saw that American Pharaoh just ran the 2nd fasted Belmont in history at 2:26, second only to Secretariat's 2:24. It's making me think a few horses were moving. He won by 5 1/2 lengths, nothing near 31. I'd really like to see the final speed figures for this race.
                                                                The really impressive feat was that he ran the last 1/4 mile in a 1 1/2 race in 24.3 seconds....faster than the final 1/4 by Secretariat in the Belmont (25 seconds flat). If AP ever went out fast, he would post record times. Horse can run for days. Very special horse and I hope to see him run again....but he might be off to the pasture.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Memento
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-28-15
                                                                  • 1192

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by cbiscuit
                                                                  I'm surprised to see that time as second best.

                                                                  I just looked a tchart now at DRF.com ... 2:26:65 I would be surprised if that is second fastest. If it is, no discussion necessary as to AP legitimacy. Hell, he won TC, fk the final time
                                                                  Second fastest of TC winners....behind Secretariat. I think 6th fastest all time in the Belmont Stakes.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cbiscuit
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 03-14-07
                                                                    • 633

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Memento
                                                                    Second fastest of TC winners....behind Secretariat. I think 6th fastest all time in the Belmont Stakes.
                                                                    Okay thx - nothing specific came to mind but did not think that 2:26.3 w3as the 2nd fastest for BelStk. No matter houw you slice it, just fantastic performance
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pavyracer
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 04-12-07
                                                                      • 82839

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Lesson learned here is a great horse can beat science.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      Search
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...