two short questions

[nash13]

1. i strongly believe that temperature has an influence to the outcome of a baseball game. how do you research that properly? do you have a website where the exact temperature over a game or at the beginning with forecast can be found?

2. what is your best resource for line up changes/confirmations in major sports like NBA? or else

thanks for any help

[LT Profits]

#2 is Baseball Press

http://www.baseballpress.com/lineups

[LT Profits]

Oops, thought you were talking strictly MLB. Sorry.

[statnerds]

1. i strongly believe that temperature has an influence to the outcome of a baseball game. how do you research that properly? do you have a website where the exact temperature over a game or at the beginning with forecast can be found?

one another site that will go unmentioned here i started a thread about global warming (sham) and Unders in MLB when temp at first pitch is under 50.

i'll get some data and post it sometime.

[A4K]

one another site that will go unmentioned here i started a thread about global warming (sham) and Unders in MLB when temp at first pitch is under 50.

i'll get some data and post it sometime.

Fuq, me. I'd love to see those numbers.

[nash13]

I can share one. If the temperature is somewhat below 70 and we have a home underdog below 200. the over under record since 2004 has been 1204-1008. with 85 units profit. The problem here is to find accurate weather data throughout the game. maybe connect it to pitcher information.
however it has been not very profitable last year. but it may be something to work around. maybe taking data for wind conditions into account.

[A4K]

I can share one. If the temperature is somewhat below 70 and we have a home underdog below 200. the over under record since 2004 has been 1204-1008. with 85 units profit. The problem here is to find accurate weather data throughout the game. maybe connect it to pitcher information.
however it has been not very profitable last year. but it may be something to work around. maybe taking data for wind conditions into account.

Interesting

[evo34]

For current weather: http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

[statnerds]

47-40 (0.40, 54.0%) avg line: -126.7 / 114.9 on / against: -$12 / -$418 ROI: -0.1% / -4.4% 38-48 (-0.14, 44.2%) avg line: 127.4 / -140.2 on / against: -$252 / -$130 ROI: -2.7% / -1.0% 37-47-2 (-0.21, 44.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,385 / +$595 ROI: -14.8% / +6.2%

[statnerds]

last year was a loser, and i don't see temps too depressed this season.
site = home and season = 2014 and temperature < 50

35-38 (-0.14, 47.9%)	avg line: -122.7 / 111.8	on / against: -$1,095 / +$732	ROI: -11.6% / +9.1%
34-39 (-0.57, 46.6%)	avg line: 115.9 / -128.5	on / against: -$101 / -$248	ROI: -1.2% / -2.4%
37-33-3 (0.69, 52.9%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: +$90 / -$845	ROI: +1.1% / -10.4%

[statnerds]

the most important thing to keep in mind is that these numbers are based on closing numbers. i can tell you that when i first started doing this 2 or 3 years ago, i hit the opener and routinely beat the closer by ~20 cents and sometimes by a half run.
site = home and season > 2011 and temperature < 50

101-110 (-0.15, 47.9%)	avg line: -121.3 / 110.2	on / against: -$2,816 / +$1,806	ROI: -10.4% / +7.7%
91-119 (-0.51, 43.3%)	avg line: 118.1 / -130.8	on / against: -$1,949 / +$1,037	ROI: -8.0% / +3.5%
96-108-6 (0.12, 47.1%)	avg total: 7.9	over / under: -$2,095 / +$105	ROI: -9.2% / +0.4%

[nash13]

Excellent job, exactly what i was talking about

[Big Bear]

1. i strongly believe that temperature has an influence to the outcome of a baseball game. how do you research that properly? do you have a website where the exact temperature over a game or at the beginning with forecast can be found?

2. what is your best resource for line up changes/confirmations in major sports like NBA? or else

thanks for any help

just get a weather app for your phone and enter the city the game is being played.

Be sure to check the direction and speed of the wind if doing a Cubs game
You are correct weather plays a factor.

Cold weather and rainy weather usually means a low scoring game.

Unless RA Dickey is pitching.... take the over and fade his ass anytime he pitches in rainy or misty weather. The humidity fukks up the knuckle ball.

Places with a dry climate such as Arizona and Colorado tend to have higher scoring games bc of the thin air and ofcourse the elevation in Denver.

Night games in San Diego and San Fran usually mean chilly weather and low scoring.


Want the biggest fukkin lock of the year?????


Pay attention to the weather this summer and if you see the Rockies or the Rangers playing at home in 96 degrees or hotter weather SLAM THE FUKk OUT OF THE OVER.


hot days at coord field usually mean 15-20 runs

[Big Bear]

I can share one. If the temperature is somewhat below 70 and we have a home underdog below 200. the over under record since 2004 has been 1204-1008. with 85 units profit. The problem here is to find accurate weather data throughout the game. maybe connect it to pitcher information.
however it has been not very profitable last year. but it may be something to work around. maybe taking data for wind conditions into account.

which was 1204-1008 ?

the over or the under?

[evo34]

Pay attention to the weather this summer and if you see the Rockies or the Rangers playing at home in 96 degrees or hotter weather SLAM THE FUKk OUT OF THE OVER.


hot days at coord field usually mean 15-20 runs

You sound like a real sharp... Actual o/u record for all games since 2006 with temp. of 96 or more at Col or at Tex? 52-52.

[evo34]

@nash13 You might want to check swishanalytics.com for NBA lineup news. Not sure if that info. is free or not, but they seem to be on it.

[evo34]

To follow up further, the correl. of temp. to total runs scored at Coors is tiny: 0.02. In Texas, it's more significant, but still not huge: 0.09.

[smoke a bowl]

I can share one. If the temperature is somewhat below 70 and we have a home underdog below 200. the over under record since 2004 has been 1204-1008. with 85 units profit. The problem here is to find accurate weather data throughout the game. maybe connect it to pitcher information.
however it has been not very profitable last year. but it may be something to work around. maybe taking data for wind conditions into account.

(somewhat below 70) doesn't quite cut the mustard sir.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

How are you handling weather prediction error? That's an issue a backtest doesn't have to deal with.

[Cordoba25]

do you have a website where the exact temperature over a game or at the beginning with forecast can be found?

By far the best site is Accuweather. In the search box enter in the name of the stadium in question and click enter... then check info you're looking for either w/ hourly or minute to minute weather conditions (great for anticipating rain delays - called minutecast) at the specifc location you requested. Has everything you'll ever need.

[nash13]

(somewhat below 70) doesn't quite cut the mustard sir.

Home Dogs below 180 and temperature below 70

1131-1249 (-0.51, 47.5%) avg line: 120.4 / -130.7 on / against: +$10,037 / -$21,625 ROI: +4.2% / -7.0% 1032-742 (0.87, 58.2%) avg line: -138.3 / 125.4 on / against: +$1,492 / -$10,827 ROI: +0.6% / -5.9% 1034-1227-112 (0.05, 45.7%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$29,459 / +$8,058 ROI: -11.4% / +3.1%

[nash13]

the predictability increases if you take out hot summer months

793-811 (-0.38, 49.4%) avg line: 118.7 / -128.8 on / against: +$12,340 / -$20,390 ROI: +7.7% / -9.9% 715-467 (1.02, 60.5%) avg line: -140.0 / 127.0 on / against: +$6,852 / -$12,989 ROI: +4.1% / -10.6% 702-822-74 (0.05, 46.1%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$19,009 / +$4,448 ROI: -10.9% / +2.5%

[Big Bear]

1. i strongly believe that temperature has an influence to the outcome of a baseball game. how do you research that properly? do you have a website where the exact temperature over a game or at the beginning with forecast can be found?

2. what is your best resource for line up changes/confirmations in major sports like NBA? or else

thanks for any help

dailybaseballdata.com for weather

right now is when weather really starts to come into play as summer is in full swing

[jjgold]

once you start thinking past stats influence games your in trouble

[RudyRuetigger]

the higher the humidity, the further the ball travels

[jjgold]

guys you can find winning trends all the time if you look deep enough

I can make a case for every game tonight both sides and totals meaning showing winning trends

[Big Bear]

the higher the humidity, the further the ball travels

ummm no.

just the opposite.

[RudyRuetigger]

ummm no.

just the opposite.

umm no

[Big Bear]

rudy why do u think they put baseballs in a humidor at coors field?

i'll give you a clue... it's not because of the humidity in Denver.

[RudyRuetigger]

rudy why do u think they put baseballs in a humidor at coors field?

i'll give you a clue... it's not because of the humidity in Denver.

wtf are you smoking?

[No coincidences]

rudy why do u think they put baseballs in a humidor at coors field?

i'll give you a clue... it's not because of the humidity in Denver.

I am convinced that you are literally the dumbest person on the planet.